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Started By
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re: The U. of Washington's model was updated overnight
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:07 am to msudawg1200
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:07 am to msudawg1200
The asteroid never hit.
0
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:08 am to FairhopeTider
quote:
They brought Alabama’s number down after factoring in our new stay at home order.
Well obviously, the numbers dropped after banning a couple of kids from tossing a football around. That and becoming an old Western stagecoach robber lookalike.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:09 am to anc
"models are always better at matching past events, than in predicting the future." - Nostradamus of Truth 
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:09 am to TigerMuskyFanMinneso
I have a non-STEM Ph.D., so I took about 12 hours of graduate statistics, know SPSS and Tableau, but I'm obviously not on your level.
I've put some controls in for how most of the country lives (not like NYC) and in 100k simulations, the MAX deaths are around 35k. The median is around 26K.
Did these models assume NYC for the rest of the country? If so, that is intellectually dishonest.
I've put some controls in for how most of the country lives (not like NYC) and in 100k simulations, the MAX deaths are around 35k. The median is around 26K.
Did these models assume NYC for the rest of the country? If so, that is intellectually dishonest.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:09 am to udtiger
quote:
SUBSTANTIALLY lower of you take out NYC and NO
Jersey and Michigan have more deaths than Louisiana...just saying. New Orleans is a big outlier at the state level but it will be surpassed by others on the national stage (not wishing that just pointing out the obvious).
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:10 am to FairhopeTider
quote:
They brought Alabama’s number down after factoring in our new stay at home order.
The model was absolute shite to start with... Now they are manipulating it to fit the data, which is pure shite as well...
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:11 am to Enadious
quote:JBE has been begging for more ventilators from the Federal government. On Sunday VP Pence committed to sending 200 more ventilators even though Edwards had asked for thousands.
It also says that it's been 5 days since peak resource use on April 1, 2020, for Louisiana.
Now the UW model says the peak requirement for Louisiana for ventilators is 286.
And that bed shortage? Nope, there will be a bed surplus according to the UW model, including an ICU bed surplus.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:11 am to msudawg1200
Musky can answer better, but I believe the original model projected Italy/NYC numbers throughout the country.
People in Belzoni don't take the subway and live in vertical cities.
I think an honest model would remove the nursing home spread as well.
People in Belzoni don't take the subway and live in vertical cities.
I think an honest model would remove the nursing home spread as well.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:12 am to Jrv2damac
quote:
And after an Alabama Armageddon, they’re projected at 927 by August
Those numbers would easily be eclipsed in early September with a Tide loss to USC.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:14 am to The Maj
quote:Shouldn't the model builders be doing that?? As new data comes in, the model is being amended to be more accurate based on.....DATA.
Now they are manipulating it to fit the data,
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:29 am to anc
Louisiana and North Carolina charts comparing the previous IHME projection to the most recent. Just a couple of states I have been following.
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Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:35 am to anc
Modeling is garbage and very dangerous.
According to this model, they projected MN to have 80 in ICU up to date (April 6). Actual ICU patients in MN today is 40
According to this model, they projected MN to have 80 in ICU up to date (April 6). Actual ICU patients in MN today is 40
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:37 am to Northwestern tiger
quote:
Modeling is garbage and very dangerous.
Depends on the model you're in, though I defer to Trump's expertise on the best models.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:40 am to ApexTiger
Upwards of that number died from flu in 2018. less than 2 years ago and not a peep!
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:43 am to anc
So, the stay at home and social distancing recommendations are working? Good to know.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:44 am to jimdog
quote:
Upwards of that number died from flu in 2018. less than 2 years ago and not a peep!
For the whole year of 2018? Compared to 2 months of covid?
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:48 am to stelly1025
Next, the Chicken Littles will say" See, the shutdown worked!"
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:48 am to PsychTiger
quote:
Depends on the model you're in, though I defer to Trump's expertise on the best models.
Trump is going to rise like a phoenix and come out of this looking like a hero. Unbelievable. He's a better counter-puncher than Muhammed Ali.
This is overreaction theroy (Richard Thaler, Nobel Prize winner econ) happening in real-time. You can't even call overreaction a psychological phenomenon because its been empirically tested and proven so consistiently.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:52 am to anc
So our peak is two weeks away? frick
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:54 am to Eat Your Crow
quote:
Louisiana has already peaked.
Wait, so supposedly Louisiana has already peaked, and this model is only predicting 800+ deaths total until August? I thought JBE has been saying that Louisiana is going to be the next Italy?
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