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anc
Member since Nov 2012
13407 posts

The U. of Washington's model was updated overnight
It was better than the Imperial College's half the world is going to die model, but it was still high. More data = better model.

Down from 240k deaths to now projecting 80k.

Mississippi was projected to have 1400 deaths, it has been revised to 237.

LINK

For you non-data geeks, keep in mind that THIS IS THE MODEL THAT WAS PRESENTED L:AST WEEK THAT 240,000 WOULD DIE. Another week of data and the protection dropped by two thirds.

This post was edited on 4/6 at 8:14 am


gatorrocks
Florida Fan
Lake Mary, FL
Member since Oct 2007
13573 posts

re: The U. of Washington's model was updated overnight
quote:

80k

Doubt we get there, either.


Jrv2damac
Kansas Fan
America's topsoil
Member since Mar 2004
34516 posts

re: The U. of Washington's model was updated overnight
And after an Alabama Armageddon, they’re projected at 927 by August


Gaston
LSU Fan
Dirty Coast
Member since Aug 2008
31262 posts

re: The U. of Washington's model was updated overnight
25k is my call.


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44
the808bass
Louisville Fan
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
69912 posts
 Online 

re: The U. of Washington's model was updated overnight
Missouri went from 800 ventilators needed in their March model to 240 needed in their first update to 95 needed in their last update.

Good work, fellas.


FairhopeTider
Alabama Fan
Fairhope, Alabama
Member since May 2012
17132 posts

re: The U. of Washington's model was updated overnight
They brought Alabama’s number down after factoring in our new stay at home order. Nevermind that our previous order was just a strict as states that had shelter-in-place orders. The new order changes nothing and suddenly our numbers are drastically reduced?

Not to go all denier here but that’s a screwed up way to run a model.
This post was edited on 4/6 at 8:02 am


Possumslayer
Tennessee Fan
Member since Jan 2018
4532 posts

re: The U. of Washington's model was updated overnight
I’m waiting on Vegas oddsmakers.


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201
udtiger
LSU Fan
Louisiana
Member since Nov 2006
67203 posts

re: The U. of Washington's model was updated overnight
quote:

Down from 240k deaths to now projecting 80k.


will be lower than that.

SUBSTANTIALLY lower of you take out NYC and NO


ApexTiger
LSU Fan
cary nc
Member since Oct 2003
43738 posts

re: The U. of Washington's model was updated overnight
quote:

Down from 240k deaths to now projecting 80k.


still way too high


moneyg
LSU Fan
Member since Jun 2006
38011 posts

re: The U. of Washington's model was updated overnight
That model is going to make a lot of sky screamers unhappy


the808bass
Louisville Fan
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
69912 posts
 Online 

re: The U. of Washington's model was updated overnight
quote:

Not to go all denier here but that’s a screwed up way to run a model.


Same for Missouri. KC and STL metro areas were stay at home. The model didn’t account for it.


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11
Eat Your Crow
Member since May 2017
902 posts

re: The U. of Washington's model was updated overnight
Louisiana has already peaked.


anc
Member since Nov 2012
13407 posts

re: The U. of Washington's model was updated overnight
Stock futures up 800 points on this.


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40
Enadious
LSU Fan
formerly B5Lurker City of Central
Member since Aug 2004
16455 posts

re: The U. of Washington's model was updated overnight
It also says that it's been 5 days since peak resource use on April 1, 2020, for Louisiana. It also projects 42 deaths on the 6th. I hope UW is correct, but only time will tell.

LINK
click dropdown on United States of America to choose state.


GeauxFightingTigers1
Member since Oct 2016
1543 posts

re: The U. of Washington's model was updated overnight
Probably way too high still, my guess is flu+ (give or take).

Nice job guys destroying the world on bull shite.


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153
TigerMuskyFanMinneso
LSU Fan
Minnesota!
Member since Sep 2019
512 posts
 Online 

re: The U. of Washington's model was updated overnight
I am reviewing it right now. I am a data scientist with 50 years pragmatic experience in building and using such models.

My first impression is that while better, the stat's the revision show they are still using averages which give too much reliance on the earliest hospitalized.......THEY ARE ATILL OVER STATING the peak and when it occurs.......

I believe we will see the peak this week, not the 15th ....and at a significantly lower level than being forecast by these models (which have so wide a variance between lower and upper estimates as to be only guides)

This week will be good news in tewrms of peaking!



jimmy the leg
LSU Fan
Member since Aug 2007
7803 posts

re: The U. of Washington's model was updated overnight
quote:

Missouri went from 800 ventilators needed in their March model to 240 needed in their first update to 95 needed in their last update. 

Good work, fellas.


Perhaps the models were simply wrong and that many were really never needed. I know, you believe "social distancing was the "reason" for the decline in the projection. I must say, social distancing is logical.

My take...perhaps the models were wrong AND social distancing helped.


msudawg1200
Mississippi St. Fan
Central Mississippi
Member since Jun 2014
5274 posts

re: The U. of Washington's model was updated overnight
quote:

Mississippi was projected to have 1400 deaths, it has been revised to 237.


The update before that had Mississippi at 2,200, then 1,400, now 237. Why the change?
This post was edited on 4/6 at 8:06 am


the808bass
Louisville Fan
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
69912 posts
 Online 

re: The U. of Washington's model was updated overnight
quote:

My take...perhaps the models were wrong AND social distancing helped.


I’m on your side. The good work fellas was sarcastically for the model makers.


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60
stelly1025
LSU Fan
Lafayette
Member since May 2012
4792 posts

re: The U. of Washington's model was updated overnight
Probably about half that.


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