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Message
re: Here's a question for the pro-lock down crowd
Posted on 3/20/20 at 8:02 pm to 4cubbies
Posted on 3/20/20 at 8:02 pm to 4cubbies
quote:
We’re far past that point though, aren’t we?
Probably. Esp the way it’s going now.
If we slow it down we can maybe get back in front of it.
This post was edited on 3/20/20 at 8:03 pm
1
Posted on 3/20/20 at 8:02 pm to BobBoucher
quote:They did it literally when they had like 20 cases.
This is how SK managed it.
We weren't in a position to do that...……..and, at this point, there is a 0% chance we could test fast enough to have the same effect.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 8:02 pm to ShortyRob
quote:
If I could guarantee you that you had zero risk of catching the coronavirus in return for bankrupting yourself and not recovering for X years, what max value for X would you be OK with and take the deal?
1 year?
3 years?
5 Years?
10 Years?
A charter member of the pro lockdown crowd, here. I'll answer this from the assumption that you're really seeking to understand where we are coming from. Me getting coronavirus is not related to my wanting to lock things down in any way. If that was my concern I wouldn't everyday walk into a building where I know people who have the disease and others who treat disease also are located.
My perspective is the lockdown is a sunk cost. It's actually been a sunk cost for a few weeks now. Had we done it then, we might be on the other side of it like S. Korea is. So we're doing now. If we don't, then this thing spreads, overruns the healthcare infrastructure (which it might still do) and sickens and kills a bunch of old people and/or chronically ill people - which is a ton of Americans
Ultimately, I just don't think this country has the stomach to watch news reports night after night that says 2000 people died today of coronavirus including 5-6 famous people and congresspeople and members of the executive branch and have the actual plan to pretty much do nothing about it until herd immunity kicks in.
The UK & the Netherlands were actually going to try a "quarantine the olds and let everyone else live their lives" plan but caved when they modeled out what that would mean in terms of mortality. We will have to lockdown eventually, let's get it over with.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 8:04 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
the problem is in a few weeks when we start relaxing things and the spread starts again
Then it spreads again. Nature has a way of cutting the wheat from the chaff. This one of them.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 8:04 pm to ShortyRob
quote:
They did it literally when they had like 20 cases.
We weren't in a position to do that...……..and, at this point, there is a 0% chance we could test fast enough to have the same effect.
Yeah - agreed. And more than half their cases came from a single source which made tracing easier.
We’d need new cases to drop to a manageable level.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 8:05 pm to ShortyRob
quote:
If I could guarantee you that you had zero risk of catching the coronavirus in return for bankrupting yourself and not recovering for X years, what max value for X would you be OK with and take the deal?
Make it 100 years.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 8:05 pm to BobBoucher
quote:
If we slow it down we can maybe get back in front of it.
It seems like all of this is a waste. Maybe not nationally, but I’m in New Orleans where we aren’t supposed to go anywhere. We already have more than 300 positives here and 8 deaths. I’m in the camp that believes it’s been here for months and I personally believe I’ve already contracted it and recovered. I’m still taking precautions but we’re just pissing in the wind at this point.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 8:05 pm to ShortyRob
quote:
So. Even if this fricking thing was gonna kill 4% of those infected, I wouldn't bankrupt myself for 5 years for a guarantee of not getting it. Would you?
I’d give up all my money and good credit to protect my family. But the thing is this doesn’t guarantee their health.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 8:06 pm to ShortyRob
We are about to get paid to do nothing. There's nothing I'd rather do right now.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 8:06 pm to longwayfromLA
quote:Not really. I'm just seeking to find out what level of harm you consider acceptable.
A charter member of the pro lockdown crowd, here. I'll answer this from the assumption that you're really seeking to understand where we are coming from.
quote:Are you under the impression we are at risk of 600K dead?
Ultimately, I just don't think this country has the stomach to watch news reports night after night that says 2000 people died today of coronavirus including 5-6 famous people and congresspeople and members of the executive branch and have the actual plan to pretty much do nothing about it until herd immunity kicks in.
If so, then, you have to answer how much lower that number would be doing lock down? Because THAT is the relevant number. It ain't like you're gonna save everyone.
quote:Which is horrendous single variable thinking.
The UK & the Netherlands were actually going to try a "quarantine the olds and let everyone else live their lives" plan but caved when they modeled out what that would mean in terms of mortality. We will have to lockdown eventually, let's get it over with.
So, my OP is an attempt to get you people to realize the OTHER VARIABLE frickING MATTERS!
Posted on 3/20/20 at 8:08 pm to Argonaut
quote:So, you'd bankrupt yourself forever to a "no coronavirus" guarantee?
Make it 100 years.
LOL
See folks. THIS is a great example of just how horrendously bad humans are at evaluating risk.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 8:08 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
the problem is in a few weeks when we start relaxing things and the spread starts again
I thought it was supposed to disappear like a miracle?
Posted on 3/20/20 at 8:08 pm to SlowFlowPro
How does this work? If we are all mandated to be self-quarantined for 3-4 weeks shouldn't the virus choke itself out?
Posted on 3/20/20 at 8:09 pm to Dawgfanman
quote:Would you bankrupt your entire family for life for any of those given time frames in order to guarantee they wouldn't catch the coronavirus?
I’d give up all my money and good credit to protect my family. But the thing is this doesn’t guarantee their health.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 8:09 pm to Steadmans Cheddar
quote:
I thought it was supposed to disappear like a miracle?
I thought it was racist to stop people from China bringing it here?
Posted on 3/20/20 at 8:10 pm to longwayfromLA
A lot of stoopid in this post.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 8:10 pm to ShortyRob
20 down votes
TWO go on record.
Typical
TWO go on record.
Typical
Posted on 3/20/20 at 8:11 pm to ShortyRob
(no message)
This post was edited on 3/21/20 at 10:35 am
Posted on 3/20/20 at 8:11 pm to 4cubbies
quote:
it’s been here for months
If by “months” you mean January. Sure.
If by “months” you mean October, no.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 8:12 pm to ShortyRob
Yeah, because I'd probably die you stupid frick.
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