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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 3/22/20 at 3:00 pm to Chromdome35
Posted on 3/22/20 at 3:00 pm to Chromdome35
If you haven't been scrolling down to the bottom of the Worldometer stats page and reading the notes, your missing some good info.
8149 new cases and 112 new deaths in the United States
New deaths and cases include:
4 new deaths and 590 new cases in New Jersey [source]
6 new deaths in Georgia [source]
4 new deaths in California: including the 1st death in Monterey County (an adult with an underlying health condition) [source]
4 new deaths in Louisiana (the other 2 mentioned in the report have been already counted in yesterday's totals for the state): an 83-year-old Orleans Parish resident, a 50-year-old Orleans resident, a 77-year-old Jefferson Parish resident and a 90-year-old Orleans Parish resident. All aside from the 83-year-old individual had underlying medical conditions [source]
3 new deaths in Michigan: a 52-year-old man with underlying health conditions [source], the first death in West Michigan: a man in his 70s [source] and an 90-year-old woman [source]
1 new death in Florida
1 new death in Colorado [source]
1 new death in Virginia, the 1st in Fairfax County: a man in his 60s who acquired COVID-19 through contact with a previously reported case [source]
1 new death in Indiana [source]
1 new death in Kentucky: a 67-year-old man from Anderson County with underlying health conditions [source]
1 new death in Kansas. Health officials have ordered Kansas City-area residents to stay at home for 30 days, starting Tuesday [source]
8149 new cases and 112 new deaths in the United States
New deaths and cases include:
4 new deaths and 590 new cases in New Jersey [source]
6 new deaths in Georgia [source]
4 new deaths in California: including the 1st death in Monterey County (an adult with an underlying health condition) [source]
4 new deaths in Louisiana (the other 2 mentioned in the report have been already counted in yesterday's totals for the state): an 83-year-old Orleans Parish resident, a 50-year-old Orleans resident, a 77-year-old Jefferson Parish resident and a 90-year-old Orleans Parish resident. All aside from the 83-year-old individual had underlying medical conditions [source]
3 new deaths in Michigan: a 52-year-old man with underlying health conditions [source], the first death in West Michigan: a man in his 70s [source] and an 90-year-old woman [source]
1 new death in Florida
1 new death in Colorado [source]
1 new death in Virginia, the 1st in Fairfax County: a man in his 60s who acquired COVID-19 through contact with a previously reported case [source]
1 new death in Indiana [source]
1 new death in Kentucky: a 67-year-old man from Anderson County with underlying health conditions [source]
1 new death in Kansas. Health officials have ordered Kansas City-area residents to stay at home for 30 days, starting Tuesday [source]
3
Posted on 3/22/20 at 3:07 pm to Chromdome35
Chrome do you have a source/link where we can track the avg age of death here in US? I imagine most are all over 60 yrs old but it would be nice to get specifics.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 3:09 pm to Magician2
Sorry, no.
I wish I did, if you come across one, let me know and I'll start tracking it.
I wish I did, if you come across one, let me know and I'll start tracking it.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 3:22 pm to Chromdome35
Under Italy's notes:
Among the deaths: a 34-year-old man in Rome with no existing health conditions (according to reports) who died after being hospitalized for 4 days in sub-intensive care. He had developed a fever after returning from Barcelona, Spain
Among the deaths: a 34-year-old man in Rome with no existing health conditions (according to reports) who died after being hospitalized for 4 days in sub-intensive care. He had developed a fever after returning from Barcelona, Spain
Posted on 3/22/20 at 3:26 pm to Chromdome35
Something is screwy with the Worldometer update.
The number of cases has DROPPED from 36,756 as of your 12:35 PM update in the OP to 32,356 now.
The number of cases has DROPPED from 36,756 as of your 12:35 PM update in the OP to 32,356 now.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 3:27 pm to LSURussian
Yea that happens, don't pay a lot of attention to it as it will work out over time.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 3:30 pm to Chromdome35
Okay, thanks.
It sure impacts the mortality rate percent when it changes like that.
It sure impacts the mortality rate percent when it changes like that.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 3:35 pm to TigerFanatic99
With between 5 and 6X the population so if and when we have the same number of cases that means we actually would have about 82% fewer cases as a % of the population than does Italy. Thats huge.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 3:38 pm to Arch Madness
Well for every 1000 people under 40 who get it, 2 will die
Posted on 3/22/20 at 3:39 pm to jimdog
quote:
With between 5 and 6X the population so if and when we have the same number of cases that means we actually would have about 82% fewer cases as a % of the population than does Italy. Thats huge.
I think the other factor is how close the US gets to capacity by the time its over. That will creep up (or not) that CFR number as quality of care decreases based on caseload in a given facility.
You can see how as the Italian caseload increased the distance in quantity between Italian cases and Italian deaths decreased over time.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 3:42 pm to jimdog
If you look at the last column of data on the Worldometer site, you'll a metric for # of cases per million population. This gives you a good idea of the relative size of our outbreak vs. another country.
For example, Italy is in the lead at 978 while the US is only at 98. There are many countries that have much larger outbreaks at the moment.
The thing is, if you look at my posts of the data, you will see that the cases per million for the US is increasing rapidly. It's gone from <1 to 98 in 11 days.
For example, Italy is in the lead at 978 while the US is only at 98. There are many countries that have much larger outbreaks at the moment.
The thing is, if you look at my posts of the data, you will see that the cases per million for the US is increasing rapidly. It's gone from <1 to 98 in 11 days.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 4:17 pm to Chromdome35
I've been doing some modeling based on the current growth rates. This table and graph show where the numbers will be in 19 days at the CURRENT growth rates.
Obviously, we want to see the growth rates start to taper off so that we don't get to the kind of numbers this is showing. To this point, the numbers don't reflect any slowing.
Obviously, we want to see the growth rates start to taper off so that we don't get to the kind of numbers this is showing. To this point, the numbers don't reflect any slowing.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 4:23 pm to Chromdome35
We have to hope our efforts start to dramatically flatten the curve. If there are 100k deaths by April 9th, it's going to be apoplectic.
I think it will flatten and we are more realistically looking closer to 7k-10k deaths by then.
I think it will flatten and we are more realistically looking closer to 7k-10k deaths by then.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 4:30 pm to TigerFanatic99
I have begun praying daily for the curve to flatten. I pray that the combination of Chloroquine/Azithromycin will be truly effective in treating this.
If something good doesn't happen soon, things could get really weird.
If something good doesn't happen soon, things could get really weird.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 4:46 pm to Chromdome35
Am I reading your graph correctly that it forecasts in 19 days we will go from today's 414 deaths to over 100,000 deaths? China has fewer than 4,000 deaths after having the virus circulate there for over 3 months.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 4:51 pm to LSURussian
Yea, that's what it says. I'm not a statistician or even really good with advanced math so this model is rudimentary and could be totally wrong.
That said, it's also simple. What has the growth rate been so far, and where does that take us in x days? If the growth rate slows, then the date becomes further in the future. If it falls enough and starts declining, then we may never get there (desired outcome).
BUT it HAS to start turning at some point, hopefully, sooner rather than later.
That said, it's also simple. What has the growth rate been so far, and where does that take us in x days? If the growth rate slows, then the date becomes further in the future. If it falls enough and starts declining, then we may never get there (desired outcome).
BUT it HAS to start turning at some point, hopefully, sooner rather than later.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 5:12 pm to LSURussian
One fallacy in my model, it is based on the observed mortality rate to date. We know the mortality rate is overstated, so the # of predicted deaths is higher than it probably should be.
This shows you the formulas and values this is based on. If you would like to know a combination of Growth Rate and mortality rate, just ask and I'll tell you the #'s from the model.
The two values in yellow above the actual vs predicted models is how i'm measuring the accuracy of the predicted numbers. I am summing the actual vs predicted column to get a total error value for the column, the lower the error number, the closer the fit of the variables. Probably something like a poor mans standard deviation.
This shows you the formulas and values this is based on. If you would like to know a combination of Growth Rate and mortality rate, just ask and I'll tell you the #'s from the model.
The two values in yellow above the actual vs predicted models is how i'm measuring the accuracy of the predicted numbers. I am summing the actual vs predicted column to get a total error value for the column, the lower the error number, the closer the fit of the variables. Probably something like a poor mans standard deviation.
This post was edited on 3/22/20 at 5:15 pm
Posted on 3/22/20 at 5:19 pm to Chromdome35
Well, I’m 61 and have been asymptomatic, live in an area of Florida where there are about 25-30 positive cases. I’m lucky to have a job that was easy to transition to a home work environment (worked from home anyway before this shite), and work in a sector where having a job is virtually guaranteed. Mom lives near me and is 81 (no pics), been checking on her and making sure she has plenty of food and doesn’t go out.
I’m not really worried about myself catching this even though I have some health conditions that put me at a higher degree of risk, I’m healthy af, imo. Have four kids, youngest is 12. Cancelled a spring break vacay this week but am replacing/repairing a privacy fence on my back yard to give me something to do.
I’m more concerned about my kids bringing exposure into our household even though they don’t go out anymore.
I’m not really worried about myself catching this even though I have some health conditions that put me at a higher degree of risk, I’m healthy af, imo. Have four kids, youngest is 12. Cancelled a spring break vacay this week but am replacing/repairing a privacy fence on my back yard to give me something to do.
I’m more concerned about my kids bringing exposure into our household even though they don’t go out anymore.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 5:25 pm to BigAppleBucky
Ski week makes sense, thanks for the perspective and the info on the drive through testing
Posted on 3/22/20 at 5:25 pm to Sid E Walker
quote:
Mom lives near me and is 81 (no pics)
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