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Message
re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 3/22/20 at 8:10 pm to anc
Posted on 3/22/20 at 8:10 pm to anc
Hey anc thanks for this link.
I think a lot of us here want to see this trend of positives over time.
Looking at the link though, seems not every state is posting hospitalizations, I.e. California, so that % may fluctuate over time based on reporting.
I think a lot of us here want to see this trend of positives over time.
Looking at the link though, seems not every state is posting hospitalizations, I.e. California, so that % may fluctuate over time based on reporting.
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Posted on 3/22/20 at 8:11 pm to anc
ANC, HUGE THANK YOU for that data!!!
I am removing this post for now. I am going to wait to see if this data source is reliable.
For the record, I do not think we will see that many deaths.
I am removing this post for now. I am going to wait to see if this data source is reliable.
For the record, I do not think we will see that many deaths.
This post was edited on 3/22/20 at 8:24 pm
Posted on 3/22/20 at 8:17 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
635K Deaths
This is not happening here.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 8:18 pm to Chromdome35
Ehhh that’s 14.1 % of people that THINK they might have the corona.
So of all the people that are symptomatic and had the test, only 14.1% of those tests have come back positive.
The briefing today, Pence said that number was closer to 10%
So of all the people that are symptomatic and had the test, only 14.1% of those tests have come back positive.
The briefing today, Pence said that number was closer to 10%
This post was edited on 3/22/20 at 8:19 pm
Posted on 3/22/20 at 8:18 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
Mortalities = Infected * Mortality Rate of 1.25% = 635K Deaths
wut
Posted on 3/22/20 at 8:19 pm to Chromdome35
Thanks for your contributions chrome but how are you getting these outrageous numbers from anc link??
You do realize the current infection rate is based on current tests. And current tests are only being given to people with symptoms.
So as a more diverse group is tested (those showing symptoms and those not showing symptoms) the percentage of positive tests will fall
You do realize the current infection rate is based on current tests. And current tests are only being given to people with symptoms.
So as a more diverse group is tested (those showing symptoms and those not showing symptoms) the percentage of positive tests will fall
Posted on 3/22/20 at 8:21 pm to DrSteveBrule
I don’t think it will happen either, actually I am going to take that down.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 8:25 pm to MorgusTheMagnificent
I am going to track that site and see what develops, if it seems valid after a few days I will show it’s trends.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 8:25 pm to Chromdome35
Damn I was about to drop dollar on that outcome with you
Posted on 3/22/20 at 8:34 pm to Chromdome35
Still no poli board posters with it, right?
Posted on 3/22/20 at 8:50 pm to Chromdome35
I think some time this week we will see results from slow testing services mixed with faster testing technology coming to market that will distort growth rates.
The results from slow testing are 5-7 days old while the new technology will offer some test results on a same day basis.
Growth in death rates and hospitalization rates may be the best numbers to monitor.
The results from slow testing are 5-7 days old while the new technology will offer some test results on a same day basis.
Growth in death rates and hospitalization rates may be the best numbers to monitor.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 9:00 pm to MeatCleaverWeaver
Per Worldometer’s numbers - 9,000 new cases today. I’m going to lower a couple thousand because some of yesterday’s got dumped into today.
7,000 new cases
Assuming 60% are asymptomatic/untested
Total new cases today - 17,500
Deaths per day 10 days from now, assuming CFR of 0.9% - 158
If that’s what happens, I think we’re in relatively good shape. But it doesn’t match up at all with our trend lines.
Which assumption is incorrect?
7,000 new cases
Assuming 60% are asymptomatic/untested
Total new cases today - 17,500
Deaths per day 10 days from now, assuming CFR of 0.9% - 158
If that’s what happens, I think we’re in relatively good shape. But it doesn’t match up at all with our trend lines.
Which assumption is incorrect?
Posted on 3/22/20 at 9:24 pm to the808bass
I think there are too many variables in the new cases number. For example Los Angeles said today they were going to stop testing unless a test would lead to a change in treatment.
The standards and speed of results make the new case numbers unreliable. Am I thinking wrong?
The standards and speed of results make the new case numbers unreliable. Am I thinking wrong?
Posted on 3/22/20 at 9:24 pm to Chromdome35
LINK
Mortality Rates of Europe and Canada
Italy: 9.25%
Spain: 6.13%
United Kingdom: 4.59%
Netherlands: 4.25%
France: 3.88%
Belgium: 2.20%
Canada: 1.38%
Sweden: 1.08%
Germany: 0.38%
Where can I get my socialized healthcare?
I envision the media spin on this will be look how great Germany and Sweden are doing. But look at every other country here.
Mortality Rates of Europe and Canada
Italy: 9.25%
Spain: 6.13%
United Kingdom: 4.59%
Netherlands: 4.25%
France: 3.88%
Belgium: 2.20%
Canada: 1.38%
Sweden: 1.08%
Germany: 0.38%
Where can I get my socialized healthcare?
I envision the media spin on this will be look how great Germany and Sweden are doing. But look at every other country here.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 9:30 pm to I B Freeman
quote:
For example Los Angeles said today they were going to stop testing unless a test would lead to a change in treatment.
So you presume mild cases are positive and quarantine them 14 days? We quarantine everyone with a cough and a fever over 100? I’m not opposed to that. It certainly beats quarantining the world.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 10:16 pm to the808bass
We could have set up quick fever checkpoints all over by now—restaurants have to check airlines have to check ect. We need a lot of those infrared thermometers. I saw some device that SK was using that could pick out individuals with a fever in a crowd.
But back to the data—I am asking if you think because the results that are announced every day are from test that are gathered under varying protocols and time frames if the number of cases really mean anything? Should we look more confidently at the rate of growth in deaths and hospitalizations to measure the success of our efforts?
But back to the data—I am asking if you think because the results that are announced every day are from test that are gathered under varying protocols and time frames if the number of cases really mean anything? Should we look more confidently at the rate of growth in deaths and hospitalizations to measure the success of our efforts?
Posted on 3/22/20 at 10:20 pm to I B Freeman
quote:
Should we look more confidently at the rate of growth in deaths and hospitalizations to measure the success of our efforts?
That’s probably a better overall measure. However hospitalizations can lag even further behind the symptoms and thus the test. There’s a subset of patients who don’t get hospitalized until day 7-9 post symptoms.
So it might be even harder to figure out timelines. But it would be a better overall picture of the severity.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 10:25 pm to Chromdome35
NOTE: Updated as of 10:20pm CST, These are final numbers for the day.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 10:26 pm to the808bass
quote:The bolded one would be the one I'd suspect, unfortunately. I can't imagine were testing 40% of the total infected cases at this point. Hopefully, I'm wrong tho.
Assuming 60% are asymptomatic/untested
Total new cases today - 17,500
Deaths per day 10 days from now, assuming CFR of 0.9% - 158
If that’s what happens, I think we’re in relatively good shape. But it doesn’t match up at all with our trend lines.
Which assumption is incorrect?
Posted on 3/22/20 at 10:38 pm to Taxing Authority
So deaths went back down today?
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