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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 3/22/20 at 1:47 pm to LSURussian
Posted on 3/22/20 at 1:47 pm to LSURussian
These are the numbers as they stand right now, obviously they can go up during the day for both US and Italy.
To anyone thinking we are going to be Italy tomorrow, this should clear that up. Obviously we are not Italy (and hopefully won't be).
That said it's worth looking at both the increased death and case rate.
As an aside, that's what a spike in testing looks like- higher rate of new cases, but death rate stays mostly the same.
To anyone thinking we are going to be Italy tomorrow, this should clear that up. Obviously we are not Italy (and hopefully won't be).
That said it's worth looking at both the increased death and case rate.
As an aside, that's what a spike in testing looks like- higher rate of new cases, but death rate stays mostly the same.
2
Posted on 3/22/20 at 1:49 pm to Magician2
It’s becoming increasing obvious that as testing increase greatly (still won’t take into account asymptomatic cases not tested) the mortality rate is actually significantly less than 1%. What’s the mortality rate for the flu, 0.1 %?
Posted on 3/22/20 at 1:50 pm to NYNolaguy1
Has the Johns Hopkins Covid tracker site been hacked and compromised? My kid's school IT sent out a text suggesting such a couple days ago.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 1:50 pm to highbooost
quote:And among the current number of cases how many have recovered?? 708 = .47% Less than half of one percent.
1st confirmed US Corona virus case confirmed January 21s. so after 60 days of the virus here we have 350 people dead that's 5.8 people A-day, yeah this is really scary stuff.
This post was edited on 3/22/20 at 1:54 pm
Posted on 3/22/20 at 1:55 pm to ImaObserver
quote:
And among the current number of cases how many have recovered?? 708 = .47% Less than half of one percent.
Yeah...I'm gonna call bullshite on that number. If someone is asymptomatic, tests positive for the virus, and then self-quarantines for two weeks...I doubt they're going to call WHO and let them know they're good and to take them off the list of people infected.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 1:55 pm to Jake88
quote:I have been using worldometer for both Italy and the US.
Has the Johns Hopkins Covid tracker site been hacked and compromised? My kid's school IT sent out a text suggesting such a couple days ago.
What should be obvious to anyone is that we are going to have more cases than Italy soon. How the death rate follows will tell what happens going forward.
This post was edited on 3/22/20 at 1:58 pm
Posted on 3/22/20 at 2:01 pm to NYNolaguy1
quote:
What should be obvious to anyone is that we are going to have more cases than Italy soon
How many more people do we have in US?
Wouldn’t more cases be expected?
Posted on 3/22/20 at 2:03 pm to dsides
quote:
How many more people do we have in US?
Wouldn’t more cases be expected?
Yes definitely. And todays numbers actually show a spike in testng vs deaths (so far). But before we spike that football pay attention to the current slope on that graph above. We need that death rate to drop within the next week and a half before we get Italy death quantities (but not death rate).
Our CFR so far is much less than Italy's.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 2:04 pm to NYNolaguy1
quote:
What should be obvious to anyone is that we are going to have more cases than Italy soon.
I'm sure that will happen but shouldn't we take total population into account?
Posted on 3/22/20 at 2:05 pm to Bunyan
quote:
I'm sure that will happen but shouldn't we take total population into account?
Yes, and like I mentioned above I don't think it will scale 1:1 for CFR. Our CFR is not their CFR, ours is much less.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 2:10 pm to NYNolaguy1
quote:
We need that death rate to drop within the next week and a half before we get Italy death quantities (but not death rate).
I thought our death rate has been dropping?
I’d assume our total deaths will pass Italy on population differential alone.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 2:12 pm to RollTide1987
quote:
Yeah...I'm gonna call bullshite on that number. If someone is asymptomatic, tests positive for the virus, and then self-quarantines for two weeks...I doubt they're going to call WHO and let them know they're good and to take them off the list of people infected.
Yeah recovery numbers are never going to be terribly useful.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 2:12 pm to NYNolaguy1
Posted on 3/22/20 at 2:14 pm to Magician2
It is hard to define “serious” in a uniform manner with the difference in symptoms.
As I mentioned before, Deaths, as a data point, are probably the most accurate surrogate marker for “serious”,
I would not look at anything besides positive tests and deaths. Everything else is not objective. Especially the recovered where patients can be list to follow up so they don’t update the status.
As I mentioned before, Deaths, as a data point, are probably the most accurate surrogate marker for “serious”,
I would not look at anything besides positive tests and deaths. Everything else is not objective. Especially the recovered where patients can be list to follow up so they don’t update the status.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 2:14 pm to dsides
quote:
I thought our death rate has been dropping?
In terms of deaths/infected, yes. I was referring to that current trend on the log scale.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 2:17 pm to NYNolaguy1
What is the difference between US Death Trend 1 and US Death Trend 2 in your charting?
Posted on 3/22/20 at 2:21 pm to TigerFanatic99
quote:
What is the difference between US Death Trend 1 and US Death Trend 2 in your charting?
Trend 2 was in response to the 3 day spike in deaths a few days ago. I extrapolated the slope to see how close or far the new rate tracks to new deaths.
Trend 1 was just a straight interpolation of the data from 3/3-3/17 that I created to see how much the new spike influenced the old trend.
In other words it's in response to current data, not necessarily inclusive of any real health assumption. It's just a trend.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 2:46 pm to NYNolaguy1
Worldometer site has backed New York new down to 5k from 12k
Posted on 3/22/20 at 2:49 pm to igoringa
Ok, that site is officially a fricking mess.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 2:53 pm to TigerFanatic99
It’s not it’s been fluctuating for days doing that. That’s why the OP specifically fricking has said multiple times to wait until the final count by the END of the day.
Welcome to this thread. Go freak out in the mega OT thread.
Welcome to this thread. Go freak out in the mega OT thread.
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