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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 3/22/20 at 1:04 pm to RollTide1987
Posted on 3/22/20 at 1:04 pm to RollTide1987
quote:
It's because we're finally testing for the virus en masse. Everyone knew the numbers would spike as tests become more widely available.
Looking at the graph (top left) from Chromdome, can you explain why you think testing is increasing from the previous rate it was at?
That line has basically remained at a constant slope for the last two weeks, while the slope of the death line has slowly increased.
I am not sure anyone can look at that graph and say that new cases have increased at a different rate than what it was earlier.
Tldr: We arent seeing a spike in new cases.
This post was edited on 3/22/20 at 1:07 pm
2
Posted on 3/22/20 at 1:09 pm to NYNolaguy1
quote:
Looking at the graph (top left) from Chromdome, can you explain why you think testing is increasing from the previous rate it was at?
That's using a logarithmic scale. Did you and bfiii graduate from the same school?
ETA: If you figure it out in less than 10 pages you are infinitely smarter than bfii.
This post was edited on 3/22/20 at 1:11 pm
Posted on 3/22/20 at 1:12 pm to mmcgrath
quote:
That's using a logarithmic scale. Did you and bfiii graduate from the same school?
So if I have something increasing at an exponential rate, say f(x)=a*b^x, and look at under a log scale, it will be a straight line.
If that line remains constant going forward how can one say f(x) changed? If the slope then doesn't change under the log graph, how can you argue theres a spike in the rate of new cases?
This post was edited on 3/22/20 at 1:21 pm
Posted on 3/22/20 at 1:13 pm to Tiguar
quote:
How is this possible unless some that were supposed to be yesterday are getting reported today?
That’s exactly what happened. About half of the deaths yesterday got backed out and then we started the day with 40+ deaths.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 1:23 pm to the808bass
94 deaths and 13k new cases at midday today. I'm trying not to get discouraged, but this isn't getting better.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 1:24 pm to TigerFanatic99
The next two to three weeks will tell the story. Unfortunately, I don’t see any way (right now) that we don’t see thousands of deaths. But the numbers will look a lot worse even as things are getting better.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 1:25 pm to Bunyan
quote:
I hope you’re right but our Gov told us yesterday it should hit it’s peak in 6-8 weeks which is super depressing. Please let his numbers be horribly wrong.
Everyone knew this was coming because we are testing fully now. Most of the cases are in NYC now.
This post was edited on 3/22/20 at 1:26 pm
Posted on 3/22/20 at 1:27 pm to Muleriderhog
1st confirmed US Corona virus case confirmed January 21s. so after 60 days of the virus here we have 350 people dead that's 5.8 people A-day, yeah this is really scary stuff.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 1:28 pm to highbooost
quote:
1st confirmed US Corona virus case confirmed January 21s. so after 60 days of the virus here we have 350 people dead that's 5.8 people A-day, yeah this is really scary stuff.
94 people died today.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 1:29 pm to NYNolaguy1
quote:
94 people died today
And its only 1:30. By mid next week we will be Italy.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 1:29 pm to TigerFanatic99
Mortality rate has dropped to 1.04% in the U.S. down from 1.22% yesterday.
396 deaths and 38,167 cases.
396 deaths and 38,167 cases.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 1:31 pm to TigerFanatic99
quote:Not even close.
By mid next week we will be Italy.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 1:33 pm to LSURussian
quote:
396 deaths and 38,167 cases.
We've shut down our entire country for this.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 1:33 pm to LSURussian
quote:
Not even close.
I certainly hope your right and I'm wrong. I'm not sure the recent data is on your side though.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 1:34 pm to TigerFanatic99
quote:
By mid next week we will be Italy.
Our case rate will be much higher than Italy. We’re doing significantly better on mortalities.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 1:34 pm to mmcgrath
Yeah, but are those counted as serious cases? To me, that would indicate someone who, without medical intervention, would be dying/dead.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 1:37 pm to NYNolaguy1
quote:The CDC showed a chart yesterday during the President’s press briefing. It showed the number of tests administered doubled Friday from Thursday and then doubled again Saturday (projected by end of day) from Friday. 25,000...50,000...100,000.
Looking at the graph (top left) from Chromdome, can you explain why you think testing is increasing from the previous rate it was at?
Posted on 3/22/20 at 1:40 pm to the808bass
quote:
Our case rate will be much higher than Italy. We’re doing significantly better on mortalities.
So wouldn’t serious cases be the best metric to look at? To see who is actually in the hospital using resources.
I imagine as our total cases are increasing most of them are just mild and can be treated by themselves essentially.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 1:41 pm to NYNolaguy1
quote:
94 people died today.
I think half of that 94 was from yesterday if we’re going by the graphs in this thread.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 1:44 pm to TigerFanatic99
quote:The recent data is telling me we won’t be near as bad as Italy.
I'm not sure the recent data is on your side though.
U.S. mortality rate: 1.04% and falling
Italy mortality rate: 9.26% and rising
U.S infection rate per million population: 115
Italy infection rate per million population: 978
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