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Started By
Message
Weather technology is becoming too good
Posted on 4/18/19 at 9:04 pm
Posted on 4/18/19 at 9:04 pm
Days like today have occurred thousands of times but we had no idea about them because models were never as good as they are now. We know most of the ingredients were present today, in a very big way, across southeastern Louisiana for a major tornado outbreak but it just never got going.
Of course the NWS and SPC can’t turn a blind eye to that data when it starts to show up in model output and that’s what happened last weekend and today. The conditions were just right but it just never happened.
This has always happened in years past but nobody had a clue since technology didn’t catch it, thus no hype/panic/doom predictions. You can’t fault the professionals for sounding the alarm because everything was there. They did their jobs by alerting the public of the potential so we could be prepared.
Every August and September we see the conditions become just right over the Gulf of Mexico but we don’t always see hurricanes develop just because they can. I see today’s event and last weeks event (or in most of our cases, non-event) this way. We know too much and sometimes it bites us.
My 2 cents.
Of course the NWS and SPC can’t turn a blind eye to that data when it starts to show up in model output and that’s what happened last weekend and today. The conditions were just right but it just never happened.
This has always happened in years past but nobody had a clue since technology didn’t catch it, thus no hype/panic/doom predictions. You can’t fault the professionals for sounding the alarm because everything was there. They did their jobs by alerting the public of the potential so we could be prepared.
Every August and September we see the conditions become just right over the Gulf of Mexico but we don’t always see hurricanes develop just because they can. I see today’s event and last weeks event (or in most of our cases, non-event) this way. We know too much and sometimes it bites us.
My 2 cents.
19
Posted on 4/18/19 at 9:05 pm to TDsngumbo
So you're saying they were accurately wrong?
Posted on 4/18/19 at 9:08 pm to TDsngumbo
Solid troll OP
Fear sells. Ratings result from fear. Media eats this stuff up. Social media influence makes it take off like wildfire.
Fear sells. Ratings result from fear. Media eats this stuff up. Social media influence makes it take off like wildfire.
This post was edited on 4/18/19 at 9:09 pm
Posted on 4/18/19 at 9:08 pm to TDsngumbo
Right on.
And just because some didn't get anything, doesn't mean everyone was so lucky. My wife and daughter were hunkered down in the bathroom with an "observed" tornado a few miles from the house.
Another one of the guys out here is flying in tomorrow because several trees went down in his yard and smashed his shed. Tornado went through his area as well.
And just because some didn't get anything, doesn't mean everyone was so lucky. My wife and daughter were hunkered down in the bathroom with an "observed" tornado a few miles from the house.
Another one of the guys out here is flying in tomorrow because several trees went down in his yard and smashed his shed. Tornado went through his area as well.
This post was edited on 4/18/19 at 9:11 pm
Posted on 4/18/19 at 9:10 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
in a very big way, across southeastern Louisiana for a major tornado outbreak but it just never got going.
Unless your town was one of the ones hit by a tornado today
Posted on 4/18/19 at 9:11 pm to TDsngumbo
They blew it and scared the absolute shite out of the media addicted sheep. They should he held responsible for the mental injury they inflicted.
The sun was shining this morning and I had employees sitting at their desks crying because they were terrified.
Is selling a few more commercials really worth the fear they induce?
The sun was shining this morning and I had employees sitting at their desks crying because they were terrified.
Is selling a few more commercials really worth the fear they induce?
Posted on 4/18/19 at 9:14 pm to TDsngumbo
I’m right there with you bro.
Posted on 4/18/19 at 9:18 pm to TDsngumbo
I’m in my 60s, and while we have had a few tornadoes, it’s rare that we have a big tornado south of the Miss state line extended unless it’s a tropical system.
Authorities are over reacting. I can understand keeping vehicles off the streets in really bad weather, but cancelling work and school a day in advance is too much.
Besides are children more safe at home or at school in the event of s bad tornado? We don’t have cellars or basements here and a steel framed structure is probably safer than a wood framed house.
Authorities are over reacting. I can understand keeping vehicles off the streets in really bad weather, but cancelling work and school a day in advance is too much.
Besides are children more safe at home or at school in the event of s bad tornado? We don’t have cellars or basements here and a steel framed structure is probably safer than a wood framed house.
Posted on 4/18/19 at 9:30 pm to TDsngumbo
Suck a dick
Just my 2 cents
Just my 2 cents
Posted on 4/18/19 at 9:45 pm to TDsngumbo
I usually defend the hell out of meteorologists. Today was a fricking sham. I didn't even have a puddle in my backyard. I usually get them on a random Tuesday rain shower. This was blown way out of fricking proportion. Winds?!? My arse!
Posted on 4/18/19 at 9:50 pm to TDsngumbo
Brah, in East MS we helped with cleanup after an ef2 hit and fricked shite up last weekend, and we have been helping with cleanup/ road clearing all night from storms today- and that was AFTER clenching our arse cheeks for 15 minutes while it got sketchy.
I'd say they got it right. It's all relative, I suppose.
I'd say they got it right. It's all relative, I suppose.
Posted on 4/18/19 at 9:56 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
My 2 cents.
Stick to babe threads
Posted on 4/18/19 at 10:07 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
My 2 cents.
Posted on 4/18/19 at 10:13 pm to TDsngumbo
Today, last week and the week before have been nothing but big flops.
Huge fails all around.
Huge fails all around.
Posted on 4/18/19 at 10:55 pm to TDsngumbo
The models were correct for the most part. It was a decent chance for severe weather and the system had some warnings in it.
The problem is the media hypes it to make you think it’s going to be a April 27, 2011 type outbreak. And it never had the potential to be and the models never showed it. Look up the SPC maps for the April 27 outbreak compared to yesterday’s.
The danger in this is the news will cry wolf too many times and people will start to not pay attention.
Big outbreaks like April 27 only happen once every 5-10 years. It takes an absolute perfect storm to create those
The problem is the media hypes it to make you think it’s going to be a April 27, 2011 type outbreak. And it never had the potential to be and the models never showed it. Look up the SPC maps for the April 27 outbreak compared to yesterday’s.
The danger in this is the news will cry wolf too many times and people will start to not pay attention.
Big outbreaks like April 27 only happen once every 5-10 years. It takes an absolute perfect storm to create those
Posted on 4/19/19 at 5:01 am to TDsngumbo
Just a fact of life:
Even if a tornado is an EF0, yet blows down your street, it's major.
And are people really upset in this thread that there weren't enough tornadoes?
My 2 cents is that there is no reason to shut down schools, etc. days in advance.
Even if a storm is imminent, I'd bet most kids are safer to hunker down in the school building, rather than their home.
Even if a tornado is an EF0, yet blows down your street, it's major.
And are people really upset in this thread that there weren't enough tornadoes?
My 2 cents is that there is no reason to shut down schools, etc. days in advance.
Even if a storm is imminent, I'd bet most kids are safer to hunker down in the school building, rather than their home.
Posted on 4/19/19 at 10:25 am to TDsngumbo
I didnt mind the closure.
My normal way to work is closed due to bridge repair....a bridge on the detour collapsed tuesday...Wednesday morning parish work crew was filling in 2 washouts with gravel on that detour and the only other way is about 6 inches from water going over the road.
Wouldn't have taken much to flood and cut a lot of people off from getting home.
My normal way to work is closed due to bridge repair....a bridge on the detour collapsed tuesday...Wednesday morning parish work crew was filling in 2 washouts with gravel on that detour and the only other way is about 6 inches from water going over the road.
Wouldn't have taken much to flood and cut a lot of people off from getting home.
Posted on 4/19/19 at 2:04 pm to TDsngumbo
I think it’s worth to have the conversation that local media can be way too obsessed with the weather and will hype events to a level that’s unnecessary for ratings. That starts a ripple effect to where local schools/organizations feel like they have to be too proactive.
In Alabama, 4/27/11 & Snowmageddon 2014 have created this narrative that every potential event has to be hyped up. Then the busts (which seems to happen more often than not) are a lot more noticeable than they used to be because now everyone has rearranged their day.
In Alabama, 4/27/11 & Snowmageddon 2014 have created this narrative that every potential event has to be hyped up. Then the busts (which seems to happen more often than not) are a lot more noticeable than they used to be because now everyone has rearranged their day.
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