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Message
re: Avengers Endgame Box Office Watch - Now just $15.5M behind Avatars Record
Posted on 4/28/19 at 11:16 am to TeLeFaWx
Posted on 4/28/19 at 11:16 am to TeLeFaWx
Yep, I was wrong.
As I have said before, my mistake was focusing on the history but ignoring the China impact...they often don’t open the same weekend as the rest.
Expected an uptick in box office, but I double counted the ~350 million cushion from IW by not factoring in China.
Deserve chops for both it and how I acted in the subsequent exchange.
But:
Seriously dude? Which sounds more miserable, me offering an opinion but admittingly turning into an a-hole in the following exchange over the span of an hour and moves on, or the guy who apparently had the exchange become a notable element of his weekend, bringing it up with almost every post during the next 48 hours as a coattail to some other post.
With passion like that, you’d think you would be an active participant in the discussion thread next door, but nope. Just here. Not sure why the box office meant so much for you compared to the rest. Or more accurately, why talking about me meant more to you than talking about the movie.
G’day, hope you can find enjoyment in the rest of it.
As I have said before, my mistake was focusing on the history but ignoring the China impact...they often don’t open the same weekend as the rest.
Expected an uptick in box office, but I double counted the ~350 million cushion from IW by not factoring in China.
Deserve chops for both it and how I acted in the subsequent exchange.
But:
quote:
What an miserable dude
Seriously dude? Which sounds more miserable, me offering an opinion but admittingly turning into an a-hole in the following exchange over the span of an hour and moves on, or the guy who apparently had the exchange become a notable element of his weekend, bringing it up with almost every post during the next 48 hours as a coattail to some other post.
With passion like that, you’d think you would be an active participant in the discussion thread next door, but nope. Just here. Not sure why the box office meant so much for you compared to the rest. Or more accurately, why talking about me meant more to you than talking about the movie.
G’day, hope you can find enjoyment in the rest of it.
2
Posted on 4/28/19 at 11:17 am to 3nOut
I wouldn’t say the emotions are out of it. I teared up more the second time than I did the first 
Posted on 4/28/19 at 11:25 am to dawgfan24348
quote:
see Detective Pikachu hitting around 100 million opening weekend. If Endgame beats that in it's third week Avatar might be in trouble
Avatar...meh.
Posted on 4/28/19 at 11:25 am to Volvagia
So salty. It’s cool. You argued with no merit even when all evidence pointed the exact opposite direction. You got pissy, you were not only wrong but extremely wrong. It’s all good man.
Posted on 4/28/19 at 11:31 am to lsufan9193969700
quote:
Avatar...meh.
I don’t get why this movie was as big as it was. I don’t love Titanic a lot but I understand it’s place in the world and why it made its money.
Avatar was terrible in every regard but the VFX.
Posted on 4/28/19 at 11:33 am to 3nOut
quote:
Rewatchability is going to be a factor moving forward to see if it has legs.
I don’t think it has the same rewatchability as The Force Awakens, especially with the run time, but I think it has sort of an Avatar factor where hype is going to give it an extra boost. Lots of casual movie goers that may only have seen one or two Marvel movies over the years are going to check in.
Posted on 4/28/19 at 11:37 am to tigerclaws15
quote:
You argued with no merit
At the time of my statement, every projection agreed with me. I believe that would account for at least “some” merit, wouldn’t you?
It was only with Friday’s numbers released on Saturday did it hit the expected threshold.
So don’t try to change the past and act like the question was settled last week
Posted on 4/28/19 at 11:38 am to 3nOut
quote:
I don’t get why this movie was as big as it was.
Hype. James Cameron’s name gave it credibility with middle aged and older females because of Titanic. You don’t get those kinds of numbers with a 75% male audience. You have to hit every demographic in some sort of way.
Avatar 2, 3 and 4 will miss a sizable chunk of what they expect if that same James Cameron hype doesn’t return. They might make up for it overseas, but I for one think Avatar was terrible, and I won’t see the sequels in theaters unless I get a personal recommendation from someone I trust.
Posted on 4/28/19 at 11:43 am to TeLeFaWx
I saw Pocahontas so didn’t feel the need to see Avatar.
Posted on 4/28/19 at 11:43 am to Volvagia
No not really. Chinas early numbers came in and then Thursday’s numbers blew everything ever done before away. It was Thursday evening when 1 billion was talked about as a real possibility. By Friday, it was pretty much a given
Posted on 4/28/19 at 11:50 am to TeLeFaWx
Avatar struck at the right time. It had that novelty factor with 3D plus a simple, easy to understand narrative (say it’s a rip off all you want, but Hollywood has been using the same stories over and over and over and over again throughout its history), and it was the first time that a lot of international markets were getting access to American blockbusters, and not only were they getting access to them, they were getting them for extended runs because only a select few would play in a lot of countries.
I believe Endgame is a lock for number 2 all time both Domestic (there is an approx. $170 million gap between 1 and 2 currently) and WW. Come Monday morning, Endgame will be at $1.2 billion WW give or take.
If it has a multiplier from it’s opening weekend of only 2 (that’s worst case scenario), it’s still at $2.4 billion and will be the clear number 2 all time with $300 million each way between 1 and 3.
If it does a 2.25 multiplier (most likely scenario) it will be at $2.7 billion and nipping on Avatar’s heels).
If it does a 2.5 multiplier (honestly, I can’t see how it will do better than this, but frick me running if it does), that’s $3 billion.
If I had to give a final prediction on it’s global run, i’ll say it gets over $2.8 billion but doesn’t hit $3 billion. I’ll say $2.9 billion, plus or minus $50 million.
Domestically, I believe it clears $900 mil but just barely misses TFA by ~ $10 million. If pikachu and John Wick swapped release dates, I believe it clears it. Then again, we’re all assuming Pikachu will be 1. A good movie and 2. A big hit domestically.
I believe Endgame is a lock for number 2 all time both Domestic (there is an approx. $170 million gap between 1 and 2 currently) and WW. Come Monday morning, Endgame will be at $1.2 billion WW give or take.
If it has a multiplier from it’s opening weekend of only 2 (that’s worst case scenario), it’s still at $2.4 billion and will be the clear number 2 all time with $300 million each way between 1 and 3.
If it does a 2.25 multiplier (most likely scenario) it will be at $2.7 billion and nipping on Avatar’s heels).
If it does a 2.5 multiplier (honestly, I can’t see how it will do better than this, but frick me running if it does), that’s $3 billion.
If I had to give a final prediction on it’s global run, i’ll say it gets over $2.8 billion but doesn’t hit $3 billion. I’ll say $2.9 billion, plus or minus $50 million.
Domestically, I believe it clears $900 mil but just barely misses TFA by ~ $10 million. If pikachu and John Wick swapped release dates, I believe it clears it. Then again, we’re all assuming Pikachu will be 1. A good movie and 2. A big hit domestically.
Posted on 4/28/19 at 11:54 am to Volvagia
quote:
At the time of my statement, every projection agreed with me. I believe that would account for at least “some” merit, wouldn’t you?
Every projection? Really? Come on, bro. You seemed to eat a bit of crow in your prior post to me, but now you’re doubling down. On Friday you were saying all the projections, including the ones that said $1 billion, were too optimistic, with just your own reasoning. Go back and read all your posts if you don’t remember.
Posted on 4/28/19 at 11:54 am to TeLeFaWx
quote:
Lots of casual movie goers that may only have seen one or two Marvel movies over the years are going to check in.
My wife, who has never been to the theaters to see a Marvel movie and I have had to pretty much force her to watch them at home, wants to go see this one in the theaters soon. I am going for the second time with a friend on Tuesday, so I will be seeing it at least three times in theaters.
Posted on 4/28/19 at 12:02 pm to TheeRealCarolina
Yeah I think your assessment is pretty solid. I am just rooting for Avatar to be unseated for as many record as possible. Avatar made $2 billion overseas, so if Endgame can make $2.1 billion then I’m happy.
Posted on 4/28/19 at 12:04 pm to Volvagia
quote:
Volvagia
Posted on 4/28/19 at 12:07 pm to RLDSC FAN
What’s kind of cool is that Endgame can finish second all-time both in Domestic Gross and International Gross but still wind up being the top WW grosser.
Posted on 4/28/19 at 12:08 pm to The Godfather
quote:
My wife, who has never been to the theaters to see a Marvel movie and I have had to pretty much force her to watch them at home, wants to go see this one in the theaters soon.
My sister who has never seen a Marvel movie asked me if she should see it. It’s got that same sort of wide-demographic hype that only pops up every couple of years. It kind of feels like the mix of a Harry Potter book release, a Game of Thrones premiere, the World Cup, and the Sex and the City movie all rolled in to one.
Posted on 4/28/19 at 12:13 pm to TeLeFaWx
quote:
On Friday you were saying all the projections, including the ones that said $1 billion, were too optimistic, with just your own reasoning. Go back and read all your posts if you don’t remember.
Right. I said that I thought it fell short.
I expected mid 900s.
I'll take crow for what I said....but not from made up additional strawmen.
At that time, the furthest news articles were willing to say that it was possible to reach 1 billion. Not definite...possible.
Hard number projections were still below that.
To sit there and act like the industry consensus was that it was going to definitely go above a billion with just Thursday's numbers is made up bullshite.
I was wrong, but lets not act like I was looking at data from Saturday with Friday's numbers when I made it.
This post was edited on 4/28/19 at 12:17 pm
Posted on 4/28/19 at 12:18 pm to TheeRealCarolina
quote:
If it does a 2.5 multiplier (honestly, I can’t see how it will do better than this, but frick me running if it does), that’s $3 billion.
I still think it falls a bit short of Avatar, but I never imagined these opening numbers either
I can't imagine seeing an opening like this ever again.Posted on 4/28/19 at 12:22 pm to RLDSC FAN
Captain marvel getting an Endgame bump.
quote:
Gitesh Pandya @GiteshPandya
In addition to #AvengersEndgame opening at #1 with record-setting numbers, #CaptainMarvel flew back into the #2 spot in its 8th wknd. It is unheard-of for a movie franchise to own the top 2 spots at the #boxoffice. Entire 22-film #MCU has now grossed $19.9B over the past 11 yrs.
quote:
Gitesh Pandya @GiteshPandya
WKND #BoxOffice:
#AvengersEndgame $350M
#CaptainMarvel $8.1M/$413.6M
#CurseOfLaLlorona $7.5M/$41.3M
#Breakthrough $6.3M/$26.1M
#Shazam $5.5M/$131.2M
#Little $3.4M/$35.9M
#Dumbo $3.2M/$107M
#PetSematary $1.3M/$52.6M
#Us $1.1M/$172.9M
90% of entire marketplace is #Endgame.
This post was edited on 4/28/19 at 12:27 pm
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