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re: Avengers Endgame Box Office Watch - Now just $15.5M behind Avatars Record
Posted on 4/27/19 at 9:14 am to lsu480
Posted on 4/27/19 at 9:14 am to lsu480
Yeah I thought that was funny.
Not just because of this being a life culminating event, but because it is being used as the explaination of why this will top a billion.
Same thing applied to IW, and it will have to improve upon it’s opening weekend by ~50% to get to a billion.
The real big difference here is the early inclusion of China, compared to IW where they started tracking a week or so in.
Not just because of this being a life culminating event, but because it is being used as the explaination of why this will top a billion.
Same thing applied to IW, and it will have to improve upon it’s opening weekend by ~50% to get to a billion.
The real big difference here is the early inclusion of China, compared to IW where they started tracking a week or so in.
This post was edited on 4/27/19 at 9:15 am
1
Posted on 4/27/19 at 9:20 am to Volvagia
Still holding out hope I see
Posted on 4/27/19 at 9:39 am to tigerclaws15
It’s not really “hope”.
I explained between the first two posts why I thought it unlikely. And used objective explaination as to why. Those conditions haven’t changed yet.
Got piled from a couple of people who thought it absurd and everything I had to say was wiped away because this was a lifetime film for people and that I didn’t understand this wasn’t a regular movie release.
As always, it’s going to be close but I still think it falls short. They are presently tracking for a 30% drop on Saturday’s domestic take.
The only game changer here and unknown quantity is China.
I explained between the first two posts why I thought it unlikely. And used objective explaination as to why. Those conditions haven’t changed yet.
Got piled from a couple of people who thought it absurd and everything I had to say was wiped away because this was a lifetime film for people and that I didn’t understand this wasn’t a regular movie release.
As always, it’s going to be close but I still think it falls short. They are presently tracking for a 30% drop on Saturday’s domestic take.
The only game changer here and unknown quantity is China.
Posted on 4/27/19 at 9:54 am to RLDSC FAN
Holy shite thought I was in the other thread
This post was edited on 4/27/19 at 10:56 am
Posted on 4/27/19 at 11:29 am to RLDSC FAN
There’s a small chance that Endgame will be the first movie to have 3 domestic weekend grosses of $100 million or more. How it can do it:
Let’s say it holds steady at that $330 million mark for this weekend. It keeps 55% of it’s total for weekend 2. That’s roughly $182 million. 55% of that is just over $100 million.
That’s a stretch but I would bet it gets 3 weekends over $90 million which is another mark no movie has ever made. If it does hold those numbers I mentioned above, that will mean $612 million in its first three weekends - just the weekends. It’s going to clear $700 million minimum domestically in its first 3 full weeks in release.
I really wish I bought Disney stock back in the Eisner days.
Let’s say it holds steady at that $330 million mark for this weekend. It keeps 55% of it’s total for weekend 2. That’s roughly $182 million. 55% of that is just over $100 million.
That’s a stretch but I would bet it gets 3 weekends over $90 million which is another mark no movie has ever made. If it does hold those numbers I mentioned above, that will mean $612 million in its first three weekends - just the weekends. It’s going to clear $700 million minimum domestically in its first 3 full weeks in release.
I really wish I bought Disney stock back in the Eisner days.
Posted on 4/27/19 at 11:36 am to TheeRealCarolina
quote:
Gitesh Pandya @GiteshPandya
Massive $487M intl cume thru FRI for #AvengersEndgame boosting global #boxoffice to unbelievable $643.7M with SAT and SUN still to come.
Posted on 4/27/19 at 12:01 pm to Volvagia
Lol $643 million before Saturday and Sunday and this dude is still arguing semantics. What an idiot.
Posted on 4/27/19 at 12:10 pm to RLDSC FAN
frick me that’s a stack
Posted on 4/27/19 at 12:19 pm to RLDSC FAN
quote:
They always low ball it though, I think it has a realistic shot at hitting 1 billion opening weekend. The hype for this film, worldwide, is unprecedented.
They’ve bumped up projections in China alone by about $50 million. It’ll hit $1 billion.
Posted on 4/27/19 at 1:35 pm to RLDSC FAN
1:40 showing here in Lake Chuck and it’s 2/3 full will people still coming in. The 1:00 showing only had 5 available tickets.
Posted on 4/27/19 at 2:07 pm to Volvagia
quote:
As always, it’s going to be close but I still think it falls short. They are presently tracking for a 30% drop on Saturday’s domestic take.
With domestic’s $156.7M estimate through Friday, the global total (again, excluding China’s Saturday) is $643.7M.
So a 30% drop in the domestic take means what? It’s going to make $109 for Saturday? Given the current total domestic projection of $340 mil, that means Sunday would be $74. Sure. Let’s concede that.
That means it’s going to make $830 excluding the international Saturday and Sunday, if US projections hold. To reach a billion, that’s $170 to go.
China’s original projections were $270 total, and now it’s at $324 total. An upward projection of $54. It’s already made $217 in China, that means its projected to make $107 this weekend. To reach a billion that is $63 to go.
The international total less China so far is $270, right? 487-217 = 270.
No each country and region is different, but let’s just look at the biggest ones. In the UK, Infinity War made $41 opening weekend, and Endgame has already made $27. So let’s just say that in the UK it’s overall potential is only the same as Infinity War. That it over performed so far but will underperform Saturday/Sunday that means it will only earn $14 “low end potential”. To reach a billion that is $59 to go.
In South Korea, Infinity War made $39. Endgame has made $23. $16 “low end potential” remains. $43 to a billion.
In Brazil, Infinity War made $19. Endgame has made $12. $7 “low end potential”. $36 to a billion.
In Mexico, Infinity War made $25. Endgame has made $12. $13 “low end potential”. $23 to a billion.
In India, Infinity War made $18. Endgame has made $9. $9 “low end potential”. $23 to a billion.
In France, Infinity War made $17. Endgame has made $12. $3 “low end potential”. $20 to a billion.
Given that most of the next highest grossing countries have either already surpassed their Infinity War totals, and I don’t want to list the ones that don’t, let’s just say it’s safe to say that since the remaining countries have earned $200 mil so far, that projecting them to get the last $20 isn’t difficult.
Boom. Roasted.
Posted on 4/27/19 at 2:10 pm to TeLeFaWx
Man, his conditions still haven’t changed. Not yet he said. What an miserable dude
Posted on 4/27/19 at 4:40 pm to TheeRealCarolina
quote:
Now TFA domestically is a grind. Possible? Sure. Likely? I wouldn’t say so.
I just can't see any scenario where it doesn't come close, or surpasses TFA. It would have to have poor legs and I don't anticipate that.
Posted on 4/27/19 at 4:57 pm to RLDSC FAN
quote:
I just can't see any scenario where it doesn't come close, or surpasses TFA. It would have to have poor legs and I don't anticipate that.
infinity war has way more rewatchability than Endgame imo. Don't think the casual person is willing to see a 3 hour movie twice
Posted on 4/27/19 at 5:02 pm to MF Doom
Fair point, but with such a huge opening, I'm reading it could go as high as 370 mil, it only needs average legs.
Posted on 4/27/19 at 9:30 pm to MF Doom
quote:
infinity war has way more rewatchability than Endgame imo. Don't think the casual person is willing to see a 3 hour movie twice
I very rarely see a movie 2 times but I’m going to go try and see it again in XD or IMAX. I think I’ve seen a movie twice in theaters maybe 3 times in the last 10 years.
Posted on 4/27/19 at 11:00 pm to 3nOut
I’ll probably catch it again tomorrow. If I can get my laundry done in the am I may catch Shazam too so my day won’t be spent waiting anxiously for the Battle of Winterfell
Posted on 4/27/19 at 11:12 pm to TheeRealCarolina
I’m going for a third and final time on Monday
Posted on 4/27/19 at 11:26 pm to 3nOut
quote:
I very rarely see a movie 2 times but I’m going to go try and see it again in XD or IMAX. I think I’ve seen a movie twice in theaters maybe 3 times in the last 10 years.
Same. I don't think I've ever seen a movie in the theater twice. But saw it Thursday night and going back to take my kids tomorrow night.
Posted on 4/28/19 at 10:25 am to Volvagia
Still unlikely? Just wondering mr box office guru
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