Thoughts on 401k and possible recession

Impossible to answer this question without knowing your age, time until retirement, etc. Attempting to time the market almost never works. While precious metals diversifies a portfolio, you are going to lose money if you stay in that long term vs. Low cost mutual funds.

I know no one wants to see their portfolio "lose" money, but as the old addage goes, you never lose until you sell. Chances are that you will exit the market too soon, and you will not re-enter at the true bottom.

Your over a quarter century from retirement, a recession only provides an opportunity to buy at a discount.

I understand that your tolerance for risk is obviously not nearly as high as mine.

However, for any period for a long, long time (like a century or more), holding equities - specifically buying the broad U.S. market, simply outperforms any such hedge strategy over any extended period, except in very narrow, short-term scenarios with perfect retroactive knowledge.

So, I would be (and am) largely in S&P 500 funds and continue to buy them until you're 5 to 7 years from retirement, then determine if you're going to start phasing out and locking in profits.

I was able to retire a few years ago at 62. Worked my entire career for two major corps with good 401k's. The only time I intervened was in 2008; after the crash I went 100% stocks & stock funds and maxed the percentages. After everything recovered, I slowly moved to the recommended splits. That set me up for life.

Lesson = buy low and sell high.

This is a great post and I know others are feeling the same way. A few things to reference from this point forward:
1. You've acknowledged you're not well versed in the market. Remember that before making assumptions.

2. You're confidence, feelings, optimism of an energy boom are all SUBJECTIVE. While the market may be SUBJECTIVE over the short term, it is OBJECTIVE over the long term. It does not care about our feelings. Remember that even the experts fall short when they invest based on feeling.

3. Do not make short term decisions (1-5 years) with long term capital(5+ years, in your case, 27 years). Hope is not a strategy.

4. Recall your time until the funds are needed. 27 years. A downturn would largely be a buying opportunity for you.

5. If you don't know the future, diversify. That means own a mix of large, mid, and small cap US and international stocks, high quality government and corporate bonds, and a little extra in cash.

6. As the economy slows, it will then contract, and we will enter a recession. Do not try to predict when. Every possible data point proves this to be detrimental to your goals.

7. The portfolio mentioned would be the exact opposite of what you'd want if you're worried about a recession. You are gambling heavily.
Google any investment jelly bean chart.

8. All that being said, the best plan is one you can stick with. For example, If 60% stock, 35% bond, 5% cash helps you sleep at night, then that is how you should remain invested. I highly recommend consulting your financial advisor.
Having said that, Props to the guy that recommended Ben Carlson's blog, the absolute BEST thing you can do is follow the team at Ritholtz Wealth management. They have videos and blogs that bring truth to this industry and answers to all your questions. (I'm thinking about going to work for them).

I really hope this was helpful, I've seen the good, bad, and the ugly, and have run data on every reasonable possible outcome, I really hope you don't let emotion blow up your plan.

Major props on the Ben Carlson link- Ritholtz is the TRUTH.