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re: Morganza Spillway may or may not open for a 3rd time -- lack of clear info from ACoE

Posted on 2/22/19 at 3:05 pm to
Posted by TigerstuckinMS
Member since Nov 2005
33687 posts
Posted on 2/22/19 at 3:05 pm to
quote:

I have a hard time believing river water would flow through Livingston Parish with the levee failure event you described in the OP.

Once the water gets outside the natural levees, it pretty much has to. All that land East of the Mississippi in the Baton Rouge area drains to the Amite and Comite, not the Mississippi. Maybe if it's far enough South, then it would all flow through just Ascension?

This post was edited on 2/22/19 at 3:10 pm
Posted by Pettifogger
Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone
Member since Feb 2012
79493 posts
Posted on 2/22/19 at 3:08 pm to
quote:

Executive Administrator of the Department of Buoyant Attire, BA, MA, EDs

Posted by TigerstuckinMS
Member since Nov 2005
33687 posts
Posted on 2/22/19 at 3:09 pm to
quote:

Secretary of the Cajun Navy appoints them. Governor appoints the Secretary of the Cajun Navy.

I gotta grease two palms to get that job?!

frick.
Posted by HerkFlyer
Auburn, AL
Member since Jan 2018
3012 posts
Posted on 2/22/19 at 3:10 pm to
If it keeps on raining, levee’s going to break
This post was edited on 2/22/19 at 3:12 pm
Posted by TDsngumbo
Alpha Silverfox
Member since Oct 2011
41896 posts
Posted on 2/22/19 at 3:11 pm to
quote:

I gotta grease two palms to get that job?!

frick.


Posted by PhiTiger1764
Lurker since Aug 2003
Member since Oct 2009
13956 posts
Posted on 2/22/19 at 3:14 pm to
After looking at google maps, I change my mind. I think water would flow from Bayou Manchac to the Amite.. and Livingston Parish would be susceptible to flooding around Port Vincent and south.. and then maybe backwater flooding for the areas around Lake Maurepas.

I was thinking about the I-12 corridor, which I do think would remain dry.
Posted by fishfighter
RIP
Member since Apr 2008
40026 posts
Posted on 2/22/19 at 3:14 pm to
quote:

How much would it spread out before shoring up the levee and stopping the flow?


They would not be able to stop the flow. Been tried up north once. Heck, they couldn't stop the water flow from the level breaks from Katrina.
Posted by Duke
Twin Lakes, CO
Member since Jan 2008
35708 posts
Posted on 2/22/19 at 3:15 pm to
quote:

Depending on where this break occurs of course, it would fill up the Brightside/Gardere/Bluebonnet areas south of Highland Road, hit Bayou Manchac, fill up Spanish Lake, and then flow toward the Amite river flooding Ascension.


All the while leaving any rainfall over the area with no where to go. Would make 2016 look pretty mild comparatively.
Posted by TDsngumbo
Alpha Silverfox
Member since Oct 2011
41896 posts
Posted on 2/22/19 at 3:17 pm to
quote:

All the while leaving any rainfall over the area with no where to go

Jesus Christ I didn't think of that aspect.
Posted by tigeraddict
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2007
11877 posts
Posted on 2/22/19 at 3:20 pm to
quote:

Hypothetical - Say the Mississippi River is @ 43' and the levee breaks in BR


Before te levee system there was a river that flowed into the Mississippi just south of baton rouge, which is now part of the Bayou Manchac/Alligator Bayou system. a break south of the BR (L'auberge area) would possibly result in the river flowing that old pathway to the amite....

Posted by Y.A. Tittle
Member since Sep 2003
101948 posts
Posted on 2/22/19 at 3:20 pm to
quote:

After looking at google maps, I change my mind. I think water would flow from Bayou Manchac to the Amite.. and Livingston Parish would be susceptible to flooding around Port Vincent and south.. and then maybe backwater flooding for the areas around Lake Maurepas.

I was thinking about the I-12 corridor, which I do think would remain dry.




River reroutes through Bayou Manchac and Lake Maurepas becomes the new mouth of the river.

Port Vincent becomes the new New Orleans.
Posted by TDsngumbo
Alpha Silverfox
Member since Oct 2011
41896 posts
Posted on 2/22/19 at 3:22 pm to
quote:

Livingston Parish would be susceptible to flooding around Port Vincent and south.. and then maybe backwater flooding for the areas around Lake Maurepas.

I would bet more of Livingston than your estimate would flood. With the Mississippi River flowing through various outlets, Bayou Manchac being one of them, the river would then empty into the Amite River. The Amite then swells to biblical proportions, spilling into surrounding areas of Ascension and Livingston. The Amite upstream from Port Vincent then has nowhere to go, resulting in it backing up big time. Then there are the various canals, streams, and bayous throughout Livingston that flow into the Amite River.

Then there's the thing Duke pointed out -- any rainfall that occurs would have NOWHERE to go. Imagine what happens when one of those springtime fronts comes through and stalls, dropping 5-8 inches of rain over the whole area.

Bottom line: the entire BR metro area would be absolutely decimated with flooding.
Posted by TDsngumbo
Alpha Silverfox
Member since Oct 2011
41896 posts
Posted on 2/22/19 at 3:23 pm to
quote:

River reroutes through Bayou Manchac and Lake Maurepas becomes the new mouth of the river.


Nope.
Posted by LSUBoo
Knoxville, TN
Member since Mar 2006
101937 posts
Posted on 2/22/19 at 3:23 pm to
Yeah, you'd have backflow flooding all up the Amite like in 2016.
Posted by Duke
Twin Lakes, CO
Member since Jan 2008
35708 posts
Posted on 2/22/19 at 3:25 pm to
quote:

Imagine what happens when one of those springtime fronts comes through and stalls, dropping 5-8 inches of rain over the whole area.



You wouldn't even need a stalled system. Just the normal parade of systems dropping an inch or two at a time spells trouble. Yeah though, spring wouldn't be ideal (as if any time would be good) for your doomsday scenario.
Posted by choupiquesushi
yaton rouge
Member since Jun 2006
30853 posts
Posted on 2/22/19 at 3:25 pm to
that's a lot of water.. wouldn't it find places in every direction where the elevation is lower that 43'?
Posted by RougeDawg
Member since Jul 2016
5972 posts
Posted on 2/22/19 at 3:25 pm to
quote:

River reroutes through Bayou Manchac and Lake Maurepas becomes the new mouth of the river.


Yep, and backwater floods the rest of Ascension. New River would destroy Gonzales. St. Amant would mercifully be wiped off the map.
Posted by Duke
Twin Lakes, CO
Member since Jan 2008
35708 posts
Posted on 2/22/19 at 3:28 pm to
quote:

wouldn't it find places in every direction where the elevation is lower that 43'?


Yeah but all of it headed to lake maurepas eventually, through all the waterways that drain the area.
Posted by TDsngumbo
Alpha Silverfox
Member since Oct 2011
41896 posts
Posted on 2/22/19 at 3:28 pm to
Bayou Manchac and the Amite are not deep enough for the Mississippi River to naturally reroute itself through. Once the river goes down, it resumes it's normal route because even though the flow through it would be tremendous, no way it would be enough to carve it deep enough to stay there.

If the Old River Control Structure ever failed, then yes, the river almost 100% reroutes through the Atchafalaya River since it's deep enough already to be carved deep enough for the Mississippi River to stay there.

***I am only guessing here.
Posted by udtiger
Over your left shoulder
Member since Nov 2006
99744 posts
Posted on 2/22/19 at 3:29 pm to
quote:

but would lose ALL DRINKING WATER FOR BOTH CITIES FOREVER !!!!!!!!!!!!


NO WE WOULDN'T!!!!!!!

at least, not Baton Rouge
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