re: CFB Head Coach Rankings (Athlon Sports)

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Why? We haven't lowered those expectations in the past 15 years due to coaching changes or tough schedules.

Besides that, Orgeron was the one who said he understood and invited the expectations. That we'd be competing for championships "very fast".

Orgeron set the bar for himself from day one. The only reason to lower it now is to protect him. That's why Ree went mental a few days ago when people expected 10-2, all while he refused to offer his own expectation.

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Truth.

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We haven't lowered those expectations in the past 15 years due to coaching changes or tough schedules. 

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You can throw inexperience in there too. I don't recall anyone expecting less in '14 when we had Jennings and Harris who were both very green along with Dural and Dupree as well.

I think we agree more then it looks like. We’re just wording it different.

I think 8-4 is a safe prediction. As far as the amount of talent on this roster I expect them to compete for the SEC.
Just so we’re clear, 8-4 is a failed season. Hell, 9-3 is a failure, considering we’ve won 9 games with less.
Let’s win 10+ and compete. If not we’re in trouble .

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What exactly are you trying to say? That 8-4 should be the ceiling?

This year, absolutely. It's foolish to expect more than that this year.

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Foolish?

Look, overall you are taking a more reasonable tone than most of the O apologists usually do, and I respect that, but to say it’s “foolish” or that we would be “whiny bitches” if we are frustrated for not going 10-2, again, is just not being objective and showing your bias.


Most aren’t even talking about going to Artlanta. The bottom line is that with all of the new coaches taking over in the SEC this year, now is very likely the best opportunity to make it through the SEC schedule in a good enough position to still get that NY6 Bowl we’ve been missing.

That includes this past year when the conference was as weak as it has ever been and we still fell short as well as in 2016 when even after losing to Alabama all we had to do to secure the Sugar Bowl invite was beat an injury ravaged Florida team at home and we couldn’t do it then either.


Do we have a difficult schedule? Sure. But playing three championship contenders and one other good team isn’t unheard of in the SEC West, at all.


And while the schedule appears to loosen up in 2019 with Vandy instead of UGA on the schedule, we replace Miami with a UT team that could be just as dangerous by that point and then go to Tuscaloosa. Not to mention that A&M, Florida, and Arkansas will all likely be much improved the same way we expect to be this year.

We will also very likely be losing our best three players on defense, the best player at each level of the D, another couple of starters on OL, our one and done FG kicker, and potentially even our very well respected DC if he continues to attract interest the way he did this offseason.


Orgeron has his hand picked offensive staff with an absolute gift of an already developed QB to design the offense around, and a loaded defense under one of the best DCs in the country to go along with a kicker that he saw as so valuable that he gave him a one year spot in a crucial recruiting class for this program.

If he can’t split games against the top 4 teams we play, only one of which is a true road game, while taking care of business against the rebuilding programs in the conference, when would it be reasonable to expect that type of leap?

Orgeron is 2-5 against teams with winning conference records since taking over, and that isn’t even including the 30 point loss to Mississippi State who was 4-4 last year, even though many try to pretend like they were some great team last year.


So that’s 2-6 against quality opponents. If we go 8-4 this year, it’s likely that record won’t be any better than 4-10 at absolute best after two and a half seasons.


Why we would be expected to all of a sudden see a championship run the next year is beyond me. It just isn’t looking at the situation realistically or objectively.


I’ve said this before, but since winning the SEC in 2001, no LSU coach has lost more than three regular season games outside of 2002, 2008, and 2014.

All of those teams had absolute disasters at QB, and also had very bad defenses compared to what we should have this year.


I see no reasonable argument why this season shouldn’t be considered an absolute disappointment and failure if the 2018 team is added to that list, and you saying four losses should be the CEILING is complete nonsense.

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Which 5?

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Miss St - I think we win at home
Arky - we are just better
La Tech - Lord I hope so
Florida - I don't think Mullen gets them turned around yet
Miami - I think Malik Rosier stinks until proven otherwise. If we don't turn it over we win.
A&M - Until they prove they can beat us I'm not conceding that game

So that's 6. I'm not guaranteeing wins because that's ridiculous and anything can happen, but I'm north of 50% confident on all of these games against these coaches that were listed.

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The Troy loss was inexcusable, but It's a hell of a lot harder to recover from a Troy loss than it is to lose to Troy. I would certainly give O that much. That's not an easy thing to do. He turned the team around about as good as I've ever seen anyone turn a team around.

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You mean after Alleva sat him down and reminded him he was specifically hired not to coach?

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Why? We haven't lowered those expectations in the past 15 years due to coaching changes or tough schedules. Besides that, Orgeron was the one who said he understood and invited the expectations. That we'd be competing for championships "very fast". Orgeron set the bar for himself from day one. The only reason to lower it now is to protect him. That's why Ree went mental a few days ago when people expected 10-2, all while he refused to offer his own expectation.

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I can see where he's coming from. If you can point out a season that LSU has had to replace starters at QB, RB1, RB2, WR1, WR2 and ranked 119th in CFB for OL experience then you would have a legitimate reference point. That's not including the OC change. I will say I like the QB and WR options we have and believe they will eventually be better than the 2017 starters. RB is definitely an unknown and likely a downgrade.

Take recruiting for example. I found the 2015 recruiting class had a kicker/p and long snapper like the 2019 class. That gives a good reference for how the 2019 class grades out. It's likely we grade out higher in 2019 with some of the projected final commits. The 2015 class finished 5th nationally and included 3 5 stars (Tolliver, Tyron Johnson, Teuhema) as well as Guice and Key.

As for O's proclamations, yeah, he did not foresee some of the events that were unfolding and that's on him. And regardless what his expectations are, he's got to meet those of the fans and they are high and unforgiving but that's what he signed onto when he took the job.

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overall you are taking a more reasonable tone than most of the O apologists usually do

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Absolutely not an O apologist. I want that dude out of here just like you. I just refuse to be unrealistic.

We have a ~90ish% new offense! You can't expect a team in the SEC West (add in Georgia and Miami) to go 10-2 with a ~90ish% new offense. Come on guys, you know that's absurd. You can say "it's possible we go 10-2" and "I hope we go 10-2" and "If this offense is what O claims it to be, then we should go 10-2".. but at this point in time, 10-2 is an unrealistic expectation. That's all I'm saying.

I hope they prove my expectations to be low as well, because we as a fanbase sure do deserve that.

Guys, I'm not saying we should just be happy with 8-4. I'm tired of 8-4/9-4, it's a bummer every fricking year because we're either a god damned Troy loss from getting in or a 2 point loss to Florida team or Alabama stinks it up in the trenches against us and we still lose. It's like every year we're "too little too late". I get all that, I'm right there with you. But at the same time, we have to be realistic about this stuff.

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My point is when we have an offensive overhaul like this year and a SOS like this year, we shouldn't expect to go 10-2. It's ludicrous.

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I sure hope this is sarcasm.

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2007? And that had an OC change as well

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Hester and Keiland Willaims were lead rushers in 2006 and 2007.

Bowe and Davis left in 2006 but they did return Doucet who had 772 yards and 8 TDs in 2006.
Our top returning WR has 219 yds and 1 TD.

So to recap they returned RB1 and RB2 and a 700+ 8 TD WR. So is it really the same?