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re: CFB Head Coach Rankings (Athlon Sports)
Posted on 6/27/18 at 12:24 pm to Freauxzen
Posted on 6/27/18 at 12:24 pm to Freauxzen
quote:
With that kind of coach, are nyou equally hesitant to say we can't go 10-2?
I'm not hesitant to say it (I see what you did there) at all. If Saban had a completely new/different offense, I wouldn't expect 10-2.
Having said that, this is a silly analogy.
Saban != Ed Orgeron, and never will.
1
Posted on 6/27/18 at 12:26 pm to TigerLunatik
quote:
You can throw inexperience in there too. I don't recall anyone expecting less in '14 when we had Jennings and Harris who were both very green along with Dural and Dupree as well.
Just because people haven't lowered their expectations in the past, doesn't mean we shouldn't now.
Posted on 6/27/18 at 12:37 pm to IM_4_LSU
quote:
I disagree on Florida. We usually dont play well there. Hell last year they were garbage and we only won by a point. Mullen makes them better. Miami is a toss up too many unknowns. I hope we win but too many unknowns for me to be confident.
We played UF last season after the Troy game. LSU was still in disarray at that point. The one thing I can say with moderate confidence is whether anyone buys into the quality of the coaching staff on the offensive side of the ball, they at least won't be at odds with the HC. Now if we stumble early and O feels the heat, he and Ensminger may find that relationship becomes strained real quick.
As for Miami, they struggled against a lot of lesser teams last season and relied on turnovers to swing the tide. I mentioned in another thread that Miami is a jeckyll and hyde team like LSU. Both can be really good or really bad week to week.
Posted on 6/27/18 at 12:37 pm to Imber
Problem with getting him is he has a $7 million buyout if he leaves after this season.
Posted on 6/27/18 at 12:41 pm to TchPowDog
Wow, we disagree again. I think that's exactly why you don't lower expectations. LSU is a top 10 job with top 10 talent. The expectation every year should be 10 wins and to finish in the top 10. That's been the case for over a decade. Why would that change now? All of the teams that are where LSU aspires to be have those same expectations as well.
I just don't get why we should change all of that for Orgeron. He said that he realizes what the expectactions are and that he welcomes them.
I just don't get why we should change all of that for Orgeron. He said that he realizes what the expectactions are and that he welcomes them.
Posted on 6/27/18 at 12:50 pm to TigerLunatik
quote:
I just don't get why we should change all of that for Orgeron. He said that he realizes what the expectactions are and that he welcomes them.
I'm with ya on this, but I'm not lowering my expectations for Ed Orgeron. I'm lowering them (slightly, as I've stated), because we have a completely new offense + Miami/Georgia. If O ends the season with a 10-2 record, I'll be impressed and say "ok, let's keep this guy around another couple years". Are you saying your reaction to a 10-2 season would be "ok, you parred this hole, I want a birdie, lets get a new coach" or "O, you suck, why couldn't you go 11-1 or 12-0"? Because I don't think that would be a fair outlook on this season.
Posted on 6/27/18 at 12:51 pm to TchPowDog
quote:
Again, you're assuming that 10-2 or better is some benchmark.
No, but making a NY6 Bowl certainly is. And the odds of doing that at less than 10-2 is a long shot at best.
quote:
My judgement of O is going to be him answering these questions:
- What kind of offense do we have and is SE the read deal like you say he is?
- Is your 3-star recruiting philosophy really going to pay off for us.
- Are you feeling the needs of our team with actual talent that fits the positions.
- Can you beat Alabama in Tiger Stadium in your 3rd year?
- What's the overall team morale like now?
- Can you start the year without laying eggs?
If all of those are answered positively, why wouldn’t we be looking at a NY6 Bowl?
See, that’s the issue. You talk about 10-2 like it’s some unfair benchmark, but all the things you are looking for are purely subjective and subject to bias.
But the bottom line is if all of those things are happening, the results should manifest on the field and in our record.
You don’t hear fans of successful programs bickering about team morale or filling team needs, that type of hand wringing is reserved for teams that haven’t done anything tangible and are trying to convince each other whether the glass is half empty or half full.
Let me make this clear, because I’m not sure you’re understanding me, I am not a believer in O.
But I am absolutely a believer in this roster. And if the coaching staff he hand picked can’t get this offense in position to help our loaded defense get us to that elusive NY6 Bowl the same way the previous coach and his offense couldn’t either, I see no reason to have faith that they will the next year either.
quote:
It's not all about his record this year. For me anyways. He still has a lot of questions to answer for me to jump on board and accept him.
It sounds like you are accepting him more than I am, actually, if you aren’t going to judge him on his record.
This post was edited on 6/27/18 at 1:05 pm
Posted on 6/27/18 at 12:57 pm to TchPowDog
quote:
Are you saying your reaction to a 10-2 season would be "ok, you parred this hole, I want a birdie, lets get a new coach" or "O, you suck, why couldn't you go 11-1 or 12-0"?
I'm saying that my reaction to a 10-2 season would mean that he did his job and I would hope that he could build on that for the 2019 season. Anything less than 10 wins this season would make me wonder what else he would need in his favor in order to compete for an SEC championship.
quote:
but I'm not lowering my expectations for Ed Orgeron. I'm lowering them (slightly, as I've stated), because we have a completely new offense + Miami/Georgia.
And what I'm saying is that no other coach in the country with the talent that LSU has is afforded that luxury. So, I don't understand why Orgeron should be.
This post was edited on 6/27/18 at 12:59 pm
Posted on 6/27/18 at 1:02 pm to cheeser
quote:
A lot of things you could call GOL, but a top ten coach isn't one of them.
I checked to see where Athlon Sports had GOL (GoodOleLess as you called him) ranked in the past. I only went back to the start of the 2012 season and this is where they had GoodOleLess ranked.
2012: #20
2013: #24
2014: #17
2015: #24
2016: #25
This is only Athlon Sports rankings and I know other sites may have him ranked higher or lower. For example, in 2016, Fox Sports had Miles ranked at #13 where Athlon ranked him at 25.
So I suppose you could say that GOL being in the top ten is "a lot of BS", but he sure as hell was never ranked in the 80's like the dummy we have now.
Posted on 6/27/18 at 1:02 pm to Tiger Voodoo
You can answer all of those questions and still have 4 close losses.
I expect at least 8-4. Worse than that, fire him mid-season, frick it. 10-2 would impress me this year, in that case I would say "give O another chance". If he goes 8-4 and it's 4 close losses, I don't know what I'd think. If it's 4 bad losses, I'll still be rooting to get rid of him - because I don't really believe in him.
I'm tired of chatting about this now - I'm at work lol
I expect at least 8-4. Worse than that, fire him mid-season, frick it. 10-2 would impress me this year, in that case I would say "give O another chance". If he goes 8-4 and it's 4 close losses, I don't know what I'd think. If it's 4 bad losses, I'll still be rooting to get rid of him - because I don't really believe in him.
I'm tired of chatting about this now - I'm at work lol
Posted on 6/27/18 at 1:03 pm to BayouCowboy
quote:
Hester and Keiland Willaims were lead rushers in 2006 and 2007.
Bowe and Davis left in 2006 but they did return Doucet who had 772 yards and 8 TDs in 2006.
Our top returning WR has 219 yds and 1 TD.
So to recap they returned RB1 and RB2 and a 700+ 8 TD WR. So is it really the same?
I wasn’t intending to say the situations are exactly the same, but merely to point out that it is very possible to lose a ton of talent and production on offense and not only not miss a beat, but do even better.
I didn’t even mention 2012 either, but that offense lost a ton of production and leadership and also had an OC shift similar to this year and the team went 10-2 only losing to two top 5 teams (and beating one as well). And they lost far more on defense than this team did as well.
And as for 2007, replacing Jamarcus Russell, Dwayne Bowe, Craig Davis PLUS senior leaders in the backfield in Justin Vincent and Alley Broussard seems a bigger task than losing Etling, Chark, Guice, and Williams.
But what both 2007 and 2012 had, that this team all of a sudden has as well, is a veteran quarterback to lean on as the new stars stepped up and carried those teams to successful seasons.
See you can rationalize all you want, but the guys from last year are far from irreplaceable, and with our supposed upgrade at OC, there is every reason to believe that this offense and these players absolutely SHOULD be better than last year’s unit.
If it is, 10 wins is a very reasonable goal with this defense and no one will doubt that we are ready to make a real championship run in 2019.
If it isn’t, we are in the same boat as we have been since 2012 and only blind faith would convince anyone that the next year would be any different.
This post was edited on 6/27/18 at 1:11 pm
Posted on 6/27/18 at 1:07 pm to TigerLunatik
quote:
And what I'm saying is that no other coach in the country with the talent that LSU has is afforded that luxury. So, I don't understand why Orgeron should be.
Well other conferences typically don't have the competition we do here. But within our conference, you can certainly point to Malzahn.
ETA: Sumlin as well. He's gone now (after 5 years), but they didn't hold a 10-2 standard. They might in a few years with Fisher, but I guarantee you they won't expect 10-2 this year or next.
This post was edited on 6/27/18 at 1:14 pm
Posted on 6/27/18 at 1:25 pm to TchPowDog
quote:
My point is when we have an offensive overhaul like this year and a SOS like this year, we shouldn't expect to go 10-2. It's ludicrous.
I started reading this site back in the summer of 2007 and for as long as I can remember, the prior coaching staff was never given the leeway that this coaching staff has been given.
Damn near everyone of the rant demanded 10 win seasons at the worst, and for some, 10 wins was deemed a failure. Regardless of coaching changes, loss of players or strength of schedule.
In a previous post to LSUcajun77, you said "Well then you, sir, are an example of what's wrong with our fanbase. Unrealistic expectations."
I'll throw that same way of thinking back at you. If you're willing to give the new coaching staff a break, and be happy with an 8 win season (living up to your expectations, the way you put it), then you're what's wrong with our fanbase.
Posted on 6/27/18 at 1:28 pm to earl keese
quote:yep. 8 wins should be unacceptable with this roster. LSU should win 10 games at least this year
and be happy with an 8 win season (living up to your expectations, the way you put it), then you're what's wrong with our fanbase.
Posted on 6/27/18 at 1:28 pm to UpToPar
quote:
The tough schedule excuse is complete hogwash.
Completely agree.Posted on 6/27/18 at 1:41 pm to TchPowDog
quote:
Well then you, sir, are an example of what's wrong with our fanbase. Unrealistic expectations.
Our fanbase’s high expectations are a big part of what could prevent LSU from becoming what Arkansas or Tennessee have been over the past decade.
Lower those, and it gives Joe Alleva the green light to continue to go cheap on coaching and still charge fans a premium for a declining program.
This post was edited on 6/27/18 at 1:49 pm
Posted on 6/27/18 at 1:41 pm to TchPowDog
quote:
I'm not hesitant to say it (I see what you did there) at all. If Saban had a completely new/different offense, I wouldn't expect 10-2.
At least you're consistent, but I think that would be a minority opinion. And I know you are using the word expect precisely, and seemingly consistently, which is fine.
quote:
Having said that, this is a silly analogy.
Saban != Ed Orgeron, and never will.
Of course he isn't. The question is, what kind of effect does a good coach have on a team and further on expectations? It seems that because Ed O has never had great success that we shouldn't expect great success, and we find a whole bunch of ways to justify it. Meanwhile, Kirby Smart inherits a worse situation, does better, produces, and probably has a fan base right now that expects at least a 10-2 season.
Posted on 6/27/18 at 1:52 pm to TchPowDog
quote:
I'm lowering them (slightly, as I've stated), because we have a completely new offense + Miami/Georgia
The reason why I don't lower the expectation is because he wanted the overhaul after selecting his OC the year prior. If you pull that kind of move you get no leeway. It better work immediately. He can't just reset the clock whenever something's not working.
He thinks he gets more runway because we're installing a new offense. That's BS, because he's the reason we're installing the new offense. If Alleva fired his guy or our OC left of his own volition, then that's different.
This post was edited on 6/27/18 at 1:54 pm
Posted on 6/27/18 at 1:55 pm to TchPowDog
quote:
Are you saying your reaction to a 10-2 season would be "ok, you parred this hole, I want a birdie, lets get a new coach"
No one is saying that. As a huge O skeptic I would absolutely be happy and impressed with 10-2 this year. No question that is a successful season. Not give him an extension successful but certainly worthy of seeing if he can earn one in 2019 with a run to Atlanta and the CFP.
9-3 would be par imo, and depending on how the games go a sign that things are likely going to go down from there based on the rest of the conference catching up to O under their new coaches. I wouldn’t expect him to be fired for it unless the losses are just embarrassing again, but my hopes for 2019 would certainly be drastically reduced and 19 would be absolute win or GTFO, just like it was for Miles in 2016.
8-4 or worse is a failure and should be the end of his tenure imo.
You’re kind of all over the place here dude.
You seem to think O isn’t the guy for the job, but are ok with 8-4 just because that’s the best he can do??
It isn’t about the best HE can do, it’s about the best LSU can do.
And there is little doubt in my mind that a championship caliber coach should be able to get this team to 10 wins.
This post was edited on 6/27/18 at 2:06 pm
Posted on 6/27/18 at 2:30 pm to Tiger Voodoo
quote:
No one is saying that. As a huge O skeptic I would absolutely be happy and impressed with 10-2 this year. No question that is a successful season. Not give him an extension successful but certainly worthy of seeing if he can earn one in 2019 with a run to Atlanta and the CFP. 9-3 would be par imo, and depending on how the games go a sign that things are likely going to go down from there based on the rest of the conference catching up to O under their new coaches. I wouldn’t expect him to be fired for it unless the losses are just embarrassing again, but my hopes for 2019 would certainly be drastically reduced and 19 would be absolute win or GTFO, just like it was for Miles in 2016. 8-4 or worse is a failure and should be the end of his tenure imo.
According to this, we're on the same page. If 10-2 impresses you, then you're not expecting 10-2 (which has been the norm). It sounds like you're expecting 9-3 (which is a fair expectation imo). I'm expecting 8-4.
All of this supports my point that expectations are lower (and should be) than the norm of 10-2.
quote:
You’re kind of all over the place here dude. You seem to think O isn’t the guy for the job, but are ok with 8-4 just because that’s the best he can do??
I don't think he is the right guy for the job, but ya know what, I'm not infallible. I could be wrong about him and so could you.
I did not say I'm ok with 8-4 "just because that's the best he can do". I said I'm ok with 8-4 because of a complete overhaul on offense and Miami/Georgia. I even said I would feel this way if Saban was our coach (provided he didn't have 30 championships).
Pay attention.
This post was edited on 6/27/18 at 2:36 pm
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