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Posted on 5/17/17 at 12:36 pm to Bard
Posted on 5/17/17 at 12:38 pm to Bard
quote:
No more petrol or diesel cars, buses, or trucks will be sold anywhere in the world within eight years.
I can see it happening, just not in eight years. Paradigm shifts across the entire human population do not happen that quickly.
quote:
The “tipping point” will arrive over the next two to three years as EV battery ranges surpass 200 miles and electric car prices in the US drop to $30,000. By 2022 the low-end models will be down to $20,000. After that, the avalanche will sweep all before it.
I don't think this will be enough either. Until there are used cars on the marked for $5k, you will never see everyone make this change.
Posted on 5/17/17 at 12:38 pm to Bard
quote:
Going from fossil fuel to electric isn't as dramatic a change as going from horse and buggy to a car so there's no real reason to expect the market to change that much in such a short amount of time.
Yeah, except for the trillions of dollars in infrastructure and the billions of more people on earth since then.
It's going to be a slooooooow slow road and electric may never replace combustion 100%
Posted on 5/17/17 at 12:41 pm to gthog61
I think we'll start seeing some shift in strictly passenger vehicles in the next 5-10 years but I don't think there's even a battery in development that can power my F-250 through a work day.
Compressed natural gas offers a lot of advantages over electric but I've never gotten a satisfactory explanation as to why those wouldn't be live bombs rolling down the highway.
Compressed natural gas offers a lot of advantages over electric but I've never gotten a satisfactory explanation as to why those wouldn't be live bombs rolling down the highway.
Posted on 5/17/17 at 12:41 pm to tigerbater
quote:
in the U.S., 70% electricity is generated from a fuel other than coal.
No
Posted on 5/17/17 at 12:45 pm to Eli Goldfinger
I mean, he is right. Sorry to break it to you.
EDIT: about coal that is.
EDIT: about coal that is.
This post was edited on 5/17/17 at 1:01 pm
Posted on 5/17/17 at 12:46 pm to Bard
quote:
Economist Predicts Fossil Fuel Vehicles No Longer Sold In 8 Years
Is there a Vegas betting line on this? If so, i'd eagerly put up my house, cars, and life savings stating we will be selling fossil fuel vehicles in 8 years.
Posted on 5/17/17 at 12:49 pm to BugAC
that's a bold prediction Cotton
And the government will have to pry the steering wheel of my Hemi powered 1968 Plymouth Road Runner from my cod dead hands if they want all fossil fuel powered vehicles off the road.
And the government will have to pry the steering wheel of my Hemi powered 1968 Plymouth Road Runner from my cod dead hands if they want all fossil fuel powered vehicles off the road.
Posted on 5/17/17 at 12:53 pm to Bard
quote:
“Scientists have solid experimental and theoretical evidence to support…the following predictions: In a decade, urban dwellers will have to wear gas masks to survive air pollution…by 1985 air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half….” • Life Magazine, January 1970
quote:
“By the year 2000, if present trends continue, we will be using up crude oil at such a rate…that there won’t be any more crude oil. You’ll drive up to the pump and say, `Fill ‘er up, buddy,’ and he’ll say, `I am very sorry, there isn’t any.’” • Kenneth Watt, Ecologist-Earth Day, April 22, 1970
Posted on 5/17/17 at 12:54 pm to HeyHeyHogsAllTheWay
The OP is about new vehicles being sold and it's a stretch. Nobody is coming for your car or guns.
Posted on 5/17/17 at 12:56 pm to Bard
I'll take bullshite for $10,000 Alex
Posted on 5/17/17 at 1:02 pm to Bard
"By the year 1980 everyone in America will be using the metric system." ... I read this in 1960
"By the year 1990 soccer will replace football, baseball and basketball as America's favorite sport." ... I read this in 1970
"Because of computers there will be no accountants by the year 2000." ... I read this in 1975
"By the year 2000 the suburbs will be abandoned and everyone will have moved back to live in cities." ...I read this in 1980
"By the year 2000 AIDs will have mutated and be transmitted through the air...like from coughing and sneezing."
... I read this in 1985
"By the year 1990 soccer will replace football, baseball and basketball as America's favorite sport." ... I read this in 1970
"Because of computers there will be no accountants by the year 2000." ... I read this in 1975
"By the year 2000 the suburbs will be abandoned and everyone will have moved back to live in cities." ...I read this in 1980
"By the year 2000 AIDs will have mutated and be transmitted through the air...like from coughing and sneezing."
... I read this in 1985
Posted on 5/17/17 at 1:10 pm to Bard
I have more faith in the forecasting abilities of astrologers than economists.
Posted on 5/17/17 at 1:11 pm to Bard
quote:this issue appears to have been solved, or at least looks extremely promising. A university in the UK has developed a new super capacitor electrolyte based on contact lens polymer technology that, if it scales up properly, will let you charge up a car to go 200-300 miles in the same time it takes to pump a tank of gas. Supercapitors also get around the capacity loss, fire danger, temperature issues, and fragility of lithium batteries. Looks very promising.
There's also the whole issue about recharge time. People wanting to take road trips aren't going to just go 200-300 miles then call it a day while they wait for the car to charge (battery replacement stations could be viable, but that's getting into the weeds a bit much for now).
This post was edited on 5/17/17 at 1:15 pm
Posted on 5/17/17 at 1:16 pm to Bard
As long as there is gas for a bass boat and a pickup I'm not too concerned .
Posted on 5/17/17 at 1:20 pm to DawgsLife
quote:
Out of curiosity....would another 20 minutes charge it up completely, or does the charging process slow down? Or do you know? I think it would be a good thing if we could go electric, but with the much higher cost of electric vehicles, I just don't see it happening for awhile, much less in the next 8 years.
The charging time of any battery follows an exponential curve slowing more as the total charge increases. That is why they quote the 0-50% time of 20 minutes, it looks fast when in reality a full 100% charge would be hours.
Posted on 5/17/17 at 1:26 pm to tigerbater
quote:
Do you live in India? Cause in the U.S., 70% electricity is generated from a fuel other than coal.
65% is still generated from fossil fuel, of which coal is still 30%, other than a little wind, solar and the other "feelgood" energy sources amount to squat.
LINK
As of 2016
•Natural gas = 33.8%
•Coal = 30.4%
•Nuclear = 19.7%
•Renewables (total) = 14.9%
•Hydropower = 6.5%
•Wind = 5.6%
•Biomass = 1.5%
•Solar = 0.9%
•Geothermal = 0.4%
•Petroleum = 0.6%
•Other gases = 0.3%
•Other nonrenewable sources = 0.3%
•Pumped storage hydroelectricity = -0.2%4
This post was edited on 5/17/17 at 1:28 pm
Posted on 5/17/17 at 1:30 pm to bonhoeffer45
quote:
And people heavily embrace ride sharing.
I don't think that will happen much beyond the extent we already see.
quote:
You can imagine some forward thinking rental companies re-structuring their business to provide customers with a service where you rent an autonomous vehicle, built for comfort of travelers, it calculates your end destination, makes vehicle stops at the companies stations along the way to charge or switch out the car, and you keep on going.
I could see this happening, it would be similar to people renting cars for road trips instead of driving their own. For this to be attractive I would think the rentable cars would need to have a much longer range (so the driver could go pretty much a full day without having to stop).
A smart move would be for restaurants (McD's for example) to have charging stations in such a scenario. This would give the family something to do (ie: eat) while waiting for the car to finish charging.
Posted on 5/17/17 at 1:41 pm to Bard
I worked at the GM regional office in Atlanta during the Volt roll out. We got to drive them a couple of times. They listed for $45,000.
If you bought a Volt here was your prospect: Drive the car for 8 years, at which time it would need new batteries. Cost: $15,000. It uses a lot of lithium ion batteries linked together – essentially laptop batteries. The batteries make a big T in the back of the car; they weigh 400 lbs. They can only be removed through the bottom of the car with a special lift. IF you stayed around the house and charged your car every night, the gasoline motor wouldn’t come on at all. But after a year, the gasoline motor would kick in and burn the gas in the tank, which of course would lose its pop over time. The car knew how old the gas was, or just went by the level in the tank. I don’t know.
The car also has a little paddle that you depress and it would make a noise like a duck. That is because the car on electric power is so quiet you can drive up on people say in a parking garage; you don’t want to blow your horn and startle them. They found in cold weather that much of the battery power was expended just warming up the interior of the car, and running the lights. This reduced the cruising radius to as little as 25 miles. The gas motor is 1.4 liter – it is the same motor as in the Chevy Cruze. The chassis and suspension are the same as the Cruze. The two motors sit side by side in the engine compartment. If the battery ran low the gas motor would come on and charge the battery. It never propelled the wheels I don't think.
GM spent $1,000,000,000 developing the Volt. They knew they would never recoup that cost through sales. But at GM nobody GAF about actually making money. Really.
If you bought a Volt here was your prospect: Drive the car for 8 years, at which time it would need new batteries. Cost: $15,000. It uses a lot of lithium ion batteries linked together – essentially laptop batteries. The batteries make a big T in the back of the car; they weigh 400 lbs. They can only be removed through the bottom of the car with a special lift. IF you stayed around the house and charged your car every night, the gasoline motor wouldn’t come on at all. But after a year, the gasoline motor would kick in and burn the gas in the tank, which of course would lose its pop over time. The car knew how old the gas was, or just went by the level in the tank. I don’t know.
The car also has a little paddle that you depress and it would make a noise like a duck. That is because the car on electric power is so quiet you can drive up on people say in a parking garage; you don’t want to blow your horn and startle them. They found in cold weather that much of the battery power was expended just warming up the interior of the car, and running the lights. This reduced the cruising radius to as little as 25 miles. The gas motor is 1.4 liter – it is the same motor as in the Chevy Cruze. The chassis and suspension are the same as the Cruze. The two motors sit side by side in the engine compartment. If the battery ran low the gas motor would come on and charge the battery. It never propelled the wheels I don't think.
GM spent $1,000,000,000 developing the Volt. They knew they would never recoup that cost through sales. But at GM nobody GAF about actually making money. Really.
This post was edited on 5/17/17 at 1:51 pm
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