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re: Economist Predicts Fossil Fuel Vehicles No Longer Sold In 8 Years
Posted on 5/17/17 at 11:28 am to Blizzard of Chizz
Posted on 5/17/17 at 11:28 am to Blizzard of Chizz
Oh this guy in the OP is definitely smoking crack, but I think it would still be a long-term benefit. Even if all it does is move more consumption from individual combustion engines to the overall grid, that means that you can make that much more of a difference in emissions by replacing the overall grid with nuclear (or solar once storage tech scales up in another generation or two). Can't really put a tiny nuclear reactor in a car
This post was edited on 5/17/17 at 11:29 am
Posted on 5/17/17 at 11:29 am to Iosh
I've always felt cost and range were the greatest barriers to adoption.
I expected to read an article that was outlandish like those Disney World esque "World of Tommorw" futurist forecasts from the 50's.
But this is actually a lot more reasonable then I expected and offers some good point.
My only counter, a big one, is that I do expect that oil companies, and natural market forces, will likely push oil prices down as preferences shift, which I think should drag out that sort of adoption into a longer timeframe. And I think it is difficult to see rural areas of the country being able to move into that sort of model of ride sharing, total autonomous vehicles, and the necessary infrastructure.
I expected to read an article that was outlandish like those Disney World esque "World of Tommorw" futurist forecasts from the 50's.
But this is actually a lot more reasonable then I expected and offers some good point.
My only counter, a big one, is that I do expect that oil companies, and natural market forces, will likely push oil prices down as preferences shift, which I think should drag out that sort of adoption into a longer timeframe. And I think it is difficult to see rural areas of the country being able to move into that sort of model of ride sharing, total autonomous vehicles, and the necessary infrastructure.
This post was edited on 5/17/17 at 11:32 am
Posted on 5/17/17 at 11:29 am to Bard
I consider myself to be a forward thinking guy in terms of futuristic technologies. I am all for the self-driving car technology and also embrace electric cars, although I have not bought one myself. I would if the tech and charging options were better.
However, this change he is suggesting is decades away -- if ever.
However, this change he is suggesting is decades away -- if ever.
Posted on 5/17/17 at 11:29 am to Iosh
quote:
Tesla has charging speeds up to 20 minutes for 0-50%. I used to think battery replacement was the way to go but now I'm guessing iterative improvements on battery tech will get there first.
While that's a good improvement, it's nowhere near the 5-10 minutes it takes to fill the tank on an average SUV. At the very least the recharge time will mean that long-distance drivers will avoid the electric market for much longer than 8 years from now (and that doesn't even get into the BTU issue for semi's).
Personally I'll be giddy for something that costs <$30k has >300hp and goes over 300-400 miles on a single charge (and I think many others will be as well).
Posted on 5/17/17 at 11:30 am to Blizzard of Chizz
Electric car batteries create a moonscape of unusable and unrecoverable land.
Posted on 5/17/17 at 11:32 am to Blizzard of Chizz
quote:
If you do away with cars that run on fossil fuels and switch to electric, that leads to a greater demand for electricity.
They don't think that far ahead. All we hear now is how our grids are at capacity or near capacity.
Posted on 5/17/17 at 11:32 am to Bard
8 years sounds outrageously soon but the new Tesla is gonna tell us a lot about the future. Mid-size, 200+ mile range, quick charging, and a ~30K price tag. That's how you revolutionize an industry.
This post was edited on 5/17/17 at 11:33 am
Posted on 5/17/17 at 11:35 am to Bard
quote:
Personally I'll be giddy for something that costs <$30k has >300hp and goes over 300-400 miles on a single charge (and I think many others will be as well
Yeah, call me when that happens.
What the hell is gonna power my flying car?
Posted on 5/17/17 at 11:35 am to AggieDub14
quote:
Fossil Fuel Vehicles No Longer Sold In 8 Years
Hes insane
Posted on 5/17/17 at 11:39 am to Bard
quote:
Economist Predicts Fossil Fuel Vehicles No Longer Sold In 8 Years
This is wishful thinking.
quote:
They will switch en masse to self-drive electric vehicles (EVs) that are ten times cheaper to run than fossil-based cars, with a near-zero marginal cost of fuel and an expected lifespan of 1 million miles.
The link below from a guy that owned a Tesla for a year and gave a great report on things. He calculated his fuel cost to be around 5.3 cents/mile. For current gas prices ($2/gallon) and a 35 mpg vehicle, the cost is 5.7 cents/mile. Pretty damn close and at 40 mpg, it's 5 cents/mile.
Tesla article
Posted on 5/17/17 at 11:40 am to Bard
Is it a job requirement that Economists have to be clueless morons?
Seems that way since they're never right
Seems that way since they're never right
Posted on 5/17/17 at 11:43 am to CajunTiger92
The effect on the environment for producing lithium batteries is absolutely devastating. Leaves a much larger/worse impact than does drilling. It's basically strip-mining.
Posted on 5/17/17 at 11:44 am to Bard
quote:
While that's a good improvement, it's nowhere near the 5-10 minutes it takes to fill the tank on an average SUV. At the very least the recharge time will mean that long-distance drivers will avoid the electric market for much longer than 8 years from now (and that doesn't even get into the BTU issue for semi's).
Just to counter this a bit. If cost, autonomy, and range does improve. And people heavily embrace ride sharing. You can imagine some forward thinking rental companies re-structuring their business to provide customers with a service where you rent an autonomous vehicle, built for comfort of travelers, it calculates your end destination, makes vehicle stops at the companies stations along the way to charge or switch out the car, and you keep on going.
Borrow from the airline model of service and offer in-transport services that provide additional revenue streams.
Then again there is also the infant technology of roads that can charge vehicles. That the U.K. is testing out on a small, non-public scale.
Posted on 5/17/17 at 11:59 am to TexasTiger1984
quote:
The effect on the environment for producing lithium batteries is absolutely devastating. Leaves a much larger/worse impact than does drilling. It's basically strip-mining
But if we are looking at the environmental angle, lithium mining is certainly bad, but the total environmental impact of the product is almost always in EV's favor. And by a good bit.
Though obviously where the energy is sourced fluctuates the enviorenmental footprint quite a lot.
This post was edited on 5/17/17 at 12:01 pm
Posted on 5/17/17 at 12:01 pm to Iosh
quote:
battery tech
Also the key in solar energy
Posted on 5/17/17 at 12:20 pm to Blizzard of Chizz
quote:
So really there is no net benefit. If you do away with cars that run on fossil fuels and switch to electric, that leads to a greater demand for electricity. It would take a massive increase in electricity production to power our daily commuting needs. That demand for fossil fuels would still exist because they would be need it in great quantities to generate electricity.
Yes, but electricity is becoming more and more renewable as well (albeit slowly). Coal is being phased out around the world, already has in a lot of ways in Europe and is currently happening in Asia. You'll see more wind, solar, and natural gas over the next decade, especially as costs for those continue to decline. Then that makes electric cars more beneficial.
Posted on 5/17/17 at 12:24 pm to HubbaBubba
quote:Congratulations you are officially as dumb as Trump's deputy NSA
Posted on 5/17/17 at 12:29 pm to Bard
When you get tenure, you can just say what the F you want. I can tell you that 8 years ago, my senior design project was the use of alternative energy. We could not provide 15% of the current usage at 10x's the cost. In the 8 years since then, not much change in the way we utilize those energy sources (wind & solar). How does an economist have any insight into technology change in 8 years?
Where do these morons think electricity for electric cars come from? I do believe it will become more popular when you can get a charge in 5 minutes and go 400 miles on a charge. Until then, fossil fuels will power cars more regularly. And even when we do switch over to electric, we will need a fuel source for electricity. We can't get a finely tuned tesla to 300 miles per charge. How in the F is a guy towing a boat or a big rig going to switch over to electric?
Where do these morons think electricity for electric cars come from? I do believe it will become more popular when you can get a charge in 5 minutes and go 400 miles on a charge. Until then, fossil fuels will power cars more regularly. And even when we do switch over to electric, we will need a fuel source for electricity. We can't get a finely tuned tesla to 300 miles per charge. How in the F is a guy towing a boat or a big rig going to switch over to electric?
Posted on 5/17/17 at 12:32 pm to DawgsLife
You can fully charge the Tesla battery at one of their super chargers in less than 30 min. They'd are fairly easy to find with their navigation systems.
The new Teslas coming out soon are in the $35k range I believe.
The new Teslas coming out soon are in the $35k range I believe.
This post was edited on 5/17/17 at 12:33 pm
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