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Hardball Times projects five players to be inducted into the Baseball HOF
Posted on 1/11/17 at 12:43 am
Posted on 1/11/17 at 12:43 am
quote:
Although the numbers below can and will change, as of this writing, the model forecasts that five players—the biggest class since the very first one in 1936—will be elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame: Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines, Iván Rodríguez, Trevor Hoffman and Vladimir Guerrero. Almost as notably, Edgar Martínez, Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens will see significant (~20-point) jumps from their 2016 support, putting them in line for eventual election. Meanwhile, Curt Schilling’s support will slip noticeably, and Lee Smith will drop off the ballot in his 15th year of eligibility. Although Jorge Posada will be a close call, the model currently does not expect any serious candidates to fall beneath the five percent support threshold.
Rodríguez correlates pretty well with Bonds and Clemens, but there’s another candidate from Hall of Fame elections past who’s an even better match. Like Rodríguez, Mike Piazza was a catcher well above his position’s standards for enshrinement but dogged by the shadow of PED accusations; it’s little surprise that his and Rodríguez’s supporters strongly overlap. Rather than settle for a less robust correlation, I opted to treat Rodríguez as if he were simply Piazza reincarnated on the ballot; his -8.5 percent adjustment is what Piazza’s would have been had he not been elected last year.
Guerrero is this year’s trickiest call. Not only is he the player closest to the 75 percent threshold for induction, but he isn’t a clear statistical doppelganger for any other candidate on the ballot. His strongest correlation is with Hoffman and his old-school supporters, but it’s not as dramatic as the other rookies’: 81 percent of Hoffman voters so far have opted for Guerrero, but 67 percent of non-Hoffman voters have too. That currently calculates out to a slender 1.2-point gain for Guerrero on private ballots, but there’s a large margin of error. For the candidate over whom there is the most suspense this year, that’s not ideal.
LINK
Posted on 1/11/17 at 12:50 am to Bench McElroy
Weak class for 5 inductees if so although the steroid Mount Rushmore guys being kept out are watering down the classes.
Posted on 1/11/17 at 1:40 am to Bench McElroy
I wonder what goes through the mind of someone who votes for Pudge and not Bonds.
Posted on 1/11/17 at 6:02 am to Bench McElroy
quote:
the biggest class since the very first one in 1936—will be elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame: Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines, Iván Rodríguez, Trevor Hoffman and Vladimir Guerrero. Almost as notably, Edgar Martínez, Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens will see significant (~20-point) jumps from their 2016 support
How the pretentious sports writers distinguish some of these full on roid heads from others is beyond full retard. What a joke
This post was edited on 1/11/17 at 6:04 am
Posted on 1/11/17 at 6:11 am to brgfather129
The voters are morons.
Posted on 1/11/17 at 6:21 am to brgfather129
quote:
I wonder what goes through the mind of someone who votes for Pudge and not Bonds.
Was thinking the same thing.
Posted on 1/11/17 at 6:40 am to brgfather129
quote:
I wonder what goes through the mind of someone who votes for Bagwell and Pudge and not Bonds.
Posted on 1/11/17 at 6:51 am to Bench McElroy
How does Bagwell get in over the Crime Dog?
Posted on 1/11/17 at 7:29 am to Hot Carl
As a Rangers fan who idolized Pudge as a kid the hall is a joke if they elect him and continue to keep out Bonds
Posted on 1/11/17 at 9:40 am to brgfather129
quote:
I wonder what goes through the mind of someone who votes for Pudge and not Bonds.
Not a whole lot, because these people are morons.
Posted on 1/11/17 at 9:55 am to goldennugget
Bonds career prior to his hamstring injury and subsequent use of healing drugs was already HOF IMHO.
Posted on 1/11/17 at 10:33 am to goldennugget
quote:
As a Rangers fan who idolized Pudge as a kid the hall is a joke if they elect him and continue to keep out Bonds
Seconded.
Posted on 1/11/17 at 10:45 am to Bench McElroy
quote:
Guerrero is this year’s trickiest call
Vlad's slash line .318/.379/.553 .931 OPS 59.3 WAR
Ichiro's slash line .313/.356/.405 .761 OPS 59.9 WAR
Some people laughably consider Ichiro a top 10 hitter of all time. And Vlad is struggling to make the HOF.
Add that to players like Bonds and Clemens not getting in, while David Ortiz probably will. MLB HOF has gone from being prestigious to being the biggest joke in sports.
Posted on 1/11/17 at 10:47 am to Bench McElroy
This entire process is laughable imo. Either you're a hall of famer or you're not. Making guys wait 10 years after eligibility and following their percentage of votes like it's the fricking stock market is absurd.
Posted on 1/11/17 at 10:48 am to 1ranter1
quote:
MLB HOF has gone from being prestigious to being the biggest joke in sports.
I wouldn't go that far, but it's definitely reaching a crossroads with the steroid suspicion lot now eligible.
Posted on 1/11/17 at 2:03 pm to Bench McElroy
quote:
Iván Rodríguez
One of the biggest roiders in the game, lol
That whole Rangers team was juiced out of their gourds
Posted on 1/11/17 at 2:14 pm to Bench McElroy
quote:
Jeff Bagwell,
quote:
Iván Rodríguez
no chance
Posted on 1/11/17 at 2:38 pm to little billy
quote:
Weak class for 5 inductees if so although the steroid Mount Rushmore guys being kept out are watering down the classes.
Might not be the Mount Rushmore of PEDs, but this class has some raised eyebrow double-standards.
Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines, Iván Rodríguez, Trevor Hoffman and Vladimir Guerrero
Posted on 1/11/17 at 2:53 pm to Bench McElroy
Vlad should be a 1st ballot guy. Great ballplayer
Posted on 1/11/17 at 3:01 pm to 1ranter1
quote:
Vlad's slash line .318/.379/.553 .931 OPS 59.3 WAR
Ichiro's slash line .313/.356/.405 .761 OPS 59.9 WAR
Some people laughably consider Ichiro a top 10 hitter of all time. And Vlad is struggling to make the HOF.
Let's go big picture here
Ichiro was 27 y/o as a rookie. Imagine his WAR with, say, 5 more years in his early twenties. His averages have also taken a hit bc he insists on playing into his 40s
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