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re: Hardball Times projects five players to be inducted into the Baseball HOF
Posted on 1/11/17 at 3:07 pm to GynoSandberg
Posted on 1/11/17 at 3:07 pm to GynoSandberg
quote:
5 more years in his early twenties.
At best he may have gotten two full years and a year or two as a utility/fourth outfielder in his early/mid twenties.
Big picture is Ichiro is a no doubt HoF and people are saying Vlad is a fringe guy, when the numbers say otherwise.
2
Posted on 1/11/17 at 3:16 pm to AwesomeSauce
quote:
Big picture is Ichiro is a no doubt HoF and people are saying Vlad is a fringe guy, when the numbers say otherwise.
They should both be no doubt hall of famers.
Posted on 1/11/17 at 4:31 pm to CelticDog
quote:No doubt about it. He was already the best player of his generation, with 3 MVPs by at 28.
Bonds career prior to his hamstring injury and subsequent use of healing drugs was already HOF IMHO.
The only argument I can see for Pudge, in this context, is his 13 GGs, with maybe/probably aren't as attributable to PED use.
Posted on 1/11/17 at 4:51 pm to Speedy G
This is huge, and great news. The biggest problem with Hall voting right now is the huge backlog of worthy candidates makes it that borderline guys fall of the ballot before they get a fair hearing. Far from being watered down, it has never been harder to get into the Hall.
Only 6.9% of eligible at bats in 1989 went to a Hall of Famer. Now, it was probably too high in 1929 when it was over 23%, but it does show how the gates have slammed shut.
Let's put it like this: if we look at JAWS, the WAR-based system for looking at Hall worthiness, the following players on the ballot all have a career JAWS higher than the HOF average of players already inducted. that means they don't just meet the minimum standard, they would literally RAISE the standard of the Hall, as they are above the average Hall of Famer:
Bagwell, Raines, Schilling, Clemens, Bonds, Edgar, Mussina, Larry Walker, Pudge, and Manny.
That's right, you could fill out a full 10-man ballot, and every guy on it would be above the Hall of Fame average statistical standard at his position. Electing five guys this time makes it more likely the other guys get in because it reduces the crowd on the ballot.
Also, Bud Selig getting in the special committee opens the floodgates for the steroid players. We're gonna let Bud in, but not the players he let use and not only didn't punish, but tacitly approved. I think Bonds and Clemens will get in NEXT year due to Selig's induction, the ballot purge, and a glut of candidates getting in.
Only 6.9% of eligible at bats in 1989 went to a Hall of Famer. Now, it was probably too high in 1929 when it was over 23%, but it does show how the gates have slammed shut.
Let's put it like this: if we look at JAWS, the WAR-based system for looking at Hall worthiness, the following players on the ballot all have a career JAWS higher than the HOF average of players already inducted. that means they don't just meet the minimum standard, they would literally RAISE the standard of the Hall, as they are above the average Hall of Famer:
Bagwell, Raines, Schilling, Clemens, Bonds, Edgar, Mussina, Larry Walker, Pudge, and Manny.
That's right, you could fill out a full 10-man ballot, and every guy on it would be above the Hall of Fame average statistical standard at his position. Electing five guys this time makes it more likely the other guys get in because it reduces the crowd on the ballot.
Also, Bud Selig getting in the special committee opens the floodgates for the steroid players. We're gonna let Bud in, but not the players he let use and not only didn't punish, but tacitly approved. I think Bonds and Clemens will get in NEXT year due to Selig's induction, the ballot purge, and a glut of candidates getting in.
Posted on 1/11/17 at 5:02 pm to winntiger
quote:
How does Bagwell get in over the Crime Dog?
Posted on 1/11/17 at 5:21 pm to Prominentwon
Bags: .297/.408/.540 449/1529 RoY, 1MVP, 4AS, 4SS
Crime Dog: :.284/.377/.509 493/1550 5AS, 3SS
Bags' biggest stat edge is his 202 stolen bases to 72 for McGriff.
Crime Dog: :.284/.377/.509 493/1550 5AS, 3SS
Bags' biggest stat edge is his 202 stolen bases to 72 for McGriff.
Posted on 1/11/17 at 5:28 pm to brgfather129
quote:
I wonder what goes through the mind of someone who votes for Pudge and not Bonds.
Maybe A total body change between the two?????
Posted on 1/11/17 at 6:05 pm to GynoSandberg
I'm not saying Vlad was a better player than Ichiro. Ichiro has had a better career when you factor in base running, fielding, and that Ichiro spent a few of his prime years in Japan.
But with the bat in their hands, Vlad > Ichiro. And I don't really think it can be debated. Vlad hit for a better average, walked more, got on base more, and hit for wayyyy more power. His stretch from 1998-2007 was absolutely incredible. But somehow the media has painted Ichiro as one of the best hitters ever and Vlad's a HOF question mark.
But with the bat in their hands, Vlad > Ichiro. And I don't really think it can be debated. Vlad hit for a better average, walked more, got on base more, and hit for wayyyy more power. His stretch from 1998-2007 was absolutely incredible. But somehow the media has painted Ichiro as one of the best hitters ever and Vlad's a HOF question mark.
Posted on 1/11/17 at 6:20 pm to mizzoubuckeyeiowa
Jeff Bagwell is well deserved and overdue.
Posted on 1/12/17 at 7:21 am to ZIGG
For a time, Bagwell was a legit Triple Crown threat, and those guys are scarce.
Posted on 1/12/17 at 8:07 am to AwesomeSauce
quote:
At best he may have gotten two full years and a year or two as a utility/fourth outfielder in his early/mid twenties
Say what
Ichiro started playing in Japan at 18 and some of his best years there started at age 21
Dude walked into Seattle year 1, won the batting title, MVP, silver slugger and a gold glove, on top of leading the league in steals. He's a 4-5 WAR player at minimum if in the MLB those years
Two years of production or a 4th OF in his early twenties if he was here?
Posted on 1/12/17 at 8:33 am to Bench McElroy
I'll be real happy for Bagwell if he gets it.
Posted on 1/12/17 at 8:52 am to ZIGG
quote:
Jeff Bagwell is well deserved and overdue.
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