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re: If successful, is the O model sustainable?
Posted on 12/19/16 at 10:32 am to Salmon
Posted on 12/19/16 at 10:32 am to Salmon
quote:
If he wins a NC, why wouldn't he want to be paid like a NC winning coach?
Because O's not going anywhere even if he wins a NC. Why bid against yourself? Keep his base salary reasonable and load it with incentives.
Unlike Saban, I doubt the NFL would be coming after O even if he won a NC.
Unlike Miles, there is no big-time alma-mater (i.e. Michigan) who could tug at the heartstrings (and purse strings) to pull O away.
Make O show (a) that another power-conf. program with money to burn wants him and (b) that he wants to leave Louisiana before paying him a ton of money.
0
Posted on 12/19/16 at 10:33 am to RileyTime
you all honestly think that if O wins a NC that he will be content with making mid tier coach money?
really?
what world do you people live in?
really?
what world do you people live in?
Posted on 12/19/16 at 10:35 am to Salmon
quote:
you all honestly think that if O wins a NC that he will be content with making mid tier coach money?
He may not like it, but unless someone else is willing to give him top-tier money, why should LSU bid against itself?
Posted on 12/19/16 at 10:35 am to Rickdaddy4188
quote:
The only real drawback will be having the player learn new schemes when our great coordinators get HC jobs.
I would also think we would take a hit in recruiting while changing OCs/DCs.
Posted on 12/19/16 at 10:35 am to olgoi khorkhoi
quote:I highly doubt that Coach O will ever pull the type of stunt that Les pulled with Arkansas. He reportedly has a lot of incentives built into his contract so that he doesn't need to.
If LSU puts together a couple top 5 finishes or playoff appearances O will want to be paid like a top coach instead of making "vandy money". Is LSU's penny penching admin going to pay 6+ million for a head coach and keep bringing in top assistants at 2 mil apiece (or higher as the market dictates)?
quote:LSU is already at a level that demands short term success. As bad a year this was the team is still nationally ranked. I also haven't seen any indication that the "purse string level" is cheap. They are clearly willing to pay for change when it is needed, and I am sure they will be happy to reward Coach O if he succeeds.
Without a change in leadership at the purse-string level, the current model may only be set up for short-term success.
Posted on 12/19/16 at 10:36 am to Alt26
quote:
He may not like it, but unless someone else is willing to give him top-tier money, why should LSU bid against itself?
if he wins a NC, he is going to get calls
Posted on 12/19/16 at 10:37 am to Salmon
quote:
you all honestly think that if O wins a NC that he will be content with making mid tier coach money?
Nobody is saying if he wins a NC he will still be making $3.5. He's just not going to jump to $6. Again, Les made it to 2 championship games and only made $4.3. Ogre would probably get $5.
Posted on 12/19/16 at 10:38 am to Rickdaddy4188
Besides having to hire a new coordinator every couple of years, maybe even both of them, there is the additional problem of luring the very best out there to LSU. If we have the best already, then there is no where to go but down when we have to replace one of them. Who would be the equal right now of Dave Aranda? I dread losing him - maybe there will be some one just as good available when he leaves, but it's a risk.
Posted on 12/19/16 at 10:39 am to beauxroux
quote:
While I agree those coaches "run" one side (although they all have coordinators on that side), I don't attribute their success by and large to that fact. There is so much more to being a successful HC.
I agree with this. But they will always be solid on one side of the ball. Which is why their success is so sustainable.
quote:
"Running" one side of the ball might account for less than 5%.
Add a zero in there.
Posted on 12/19/16 at 10:39 am to jcole4lsu
quote:
Les won a National Championship and didnt make $5. Ogre isnt making that kind of money unless he - at minimum - makes the CFP championship game.
Ahh... I think you're right. I didn't really fact check and answered off the top of my head, assuming the top 5-10 coaches are making around $5M a year. (Cue the jokes that Miles hasn't been a top 10 coach the past few years... hence his pay was under $5M.)
And I forget how Miles' pay was structured, but think a certain amount was base pay, then a certain amount was something else... like TAF money or something else.
Posted on 12/19/16 at 10:40 am to Salmon
quote:
if he wins a NC, he is going to get calls
Maybe. But until that happens, I wouldn't just rubber stamp a significant raise and extension
LSU was willing to pay Saban a ton in order to try to keep him. Same with Miles when the Michigan job would pop up. Until there is a serious threat of someone else coming in and taking O, I wouldn't throw a ton of money at him. Let the market set his price.
Posted on 12/19/16 at 10:42 am to olgoi khorkhoi
The only way O ever makes 6+ is if we make the playoffs. If we make the playoffs then our recruiting and program income sky rockets. More money and better players should lead to more wins and the cycle could continue.
Short answer- Winning solves everything. Just win baby, win.
Short answer- Winning solves everything. Just win baby, win.
Posted on 12/19/16 at 10:46 am to Alt26
quote:
LSU was willing to pay Saban a ton in order to try to keep him. Same with Miles when the Michigan job would pop up. Until there is a serious threat of someone else coming in and taking O, I wouldn't throw a ton of money at him. Let the market set his price.
the market right now for a NC winning coach is $6+ mil
if O wins, someone will come calling, that is a given
Posted on 12/19/16 at 10:48 am to JP46
quote:
Besides having to hire a new coordinator every couple of years, maybe even both of them, there is the additional problem of luring the very best out there to LSU. If we have the best already, then there is no where to go but down when we have to replace one of them. Who would be the equal right now of Dave Aranda? I dread losing him - maybe there will be some one just as good available when he leaves, but it's a risk.
I honestly wanted Aranda to get the HC job if herman and jimbo said no.
Posted on 12/19/16 at 10:52 am to olgoi khorkhoi
First: if O wins a national championship and makes another playoff appearance or two in the next four years, then I'll say the model is worth it, even if it falls apart after that.
Second: I'm skeptical of this model because the difference between 10-3 or 11-2 and a national championship is a head coach that can lead on the Xs and Os and lock down one side of the ball. Given Orgeron's "deer in the headlights" look when the going got tough against Florida and Alabama, I'm of the opinion that if you want to win championships, you don't hire a HC just to be a mascot.
Third: There is the constant pressure to hire "elite" coordinators every two or three years. Elite coordinators want to be head coaches making at least five million a year.
Fourth: The first three reservations are pitfalls even before we discuss your valid observation about O wanting to be paid big money with any real success.
Second: I'm skeptical of this model because the difference between 10-3 or 11-2 and a national championship is a head coach that can lead on the Xs and Os and lock down one side of the ball. Given Orgeron's "deer in the headlights" look when the going got tough against Florida and Alabama, I'm of the opinion that if you want to win championships, you don't hire a HC just to be a mascot.
Third: There is the constant pressure to hire "elite" coordinators every two or three years. Elite coordinators want to be head coaches making at least five million a year.
Fourth: The first three reservations are pitfalls even before we discuss your valid observation about O wanting to be paid big money with any real success.
This post was edited on 12/19/16 at 11:10 am
Posted on 12/19/16 at 11:02 am to timlan2057
quote:
First: if O wins a national championship and makes another playoff appearance or two in the next four years, then I'll say the model is worth it, even if it falls apart after that.
Second: I'm skeptical of this model because the difference between 10-3 or 11-2 and a national championship is a head coach that can lead on the Xs and Os and lock down one side of the ball. Given Orgeron's "deer in the headlights" look when the going got tough against Florida and Alabama, I'm of the opinion that if you want to win championships, you don't hire a HC just to be a mascot.
Third: There is the constant pressure to hire "elite" coordinators every two or three years. Elite coordinators want to be head coaches making at least five million a year.
Fourth: The first three reservations points are pitfalls even before we discuss your valid observation about O wanting to be paid big money with any real success.
This. Especially #4.
Posted on 12/19/16 at 11:05 am to timlan2057
1. Have the best coordinators possible. Aranda is the best and we'll see how Canada plays out. BUt successful coordinators like we want will not stay here long. Always keep your eye out for great coordinators for future hires.
2. Top 5 recruiting. This is what we need starting in Feb, 2018. Top 10 is OK for 2017 since this is O's first year.
3. If we can do #1-#2 consistently, we can not dip below 9-3 playing in a tough SECW. I see 10-2/9-3 in 2017 and again in 2018. But 2019 and on could be better if we have top coordinators.
2. Top 5 recruiting. This is what we need starting in Feb, 2018. Top 10 is OK for 2017 since this is O's first year.
3. If we can do #1-#2 consistently, we can not dip below 9-3 playing in a tough SECW. I see 10-2/9-3 in 2017 and again in 2018. But 2019 and on could be better if we have top coordinators.
Posted on 12/19/16 at 11:07 am to jcole4lsu
I'm sorry but I just can't see Oregeron winning a NC.
Posted on 12/19/16 at 11:15 am to olgoi khorkhoi
The reason your paying him "Vandy money" is because he is reliant on elite coordinators. No one pays recruiting coordinators 6 mill a year.
Posted on 12/19/16 at 11:23 am to epbart
quote:
he wins the SEC a couple times, and makes the playoffs / potentially wins it all, then I'd expect his next contract would definitely be in the $5M+ range, and possibly over $6M, based on what top coaches are making these days.
even in that scenario I don't see him getting paid like the very top HC's get paid. They get paid what they get paid because their is a big market for their services. Saban gets paid 7 mill a year because if Bama doesn't, someone else will. Even with a NC I don't see Orgeron commanding top HC pay. He'll get a pay raise and some bonuses, sure. We hired Orgeron because his skill set was suited for LSU. There was no other demand for him. His skill set and personality fit LSU, not Notre Dame or Ohio St or Washington.
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