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Started By
Message
re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine
Posted on 8/25/16 at 2:04 pm to LSURussian
Posted on 8/25/16 at 2:04 pm to LSURussian
Getting torn apart...
0
Posted on 8/25/16 at 2:05 pm to LSURussian
I see that too... 
Posted on 8/25/16 at 2:05 pm to LSURussian
Good pic of sheer blowing clouds away from the naked low level center; plus any inflow from the SW is blocked by Hispanola.
The system is in trouble and unless sheer quits and the circulation reaches a moist area; nothing of consequence is going to happen.
It takes more than warm water to form a tropical storm. Al Gore should have known that.
The system is in trouble and unless sheer quits and the circulation reaches a moist area; nothing of consequence is going to happen.
It takes more than warm water to form a tropical storm. Al Gore should have known that.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 2:06 pm to LSURussian
Thing to watch today and tonight is too see if 99l continues west into Cuba or turn west northwest and just stay offshore of Cuba. Well needs to fire convection also.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 2:11 pm to lsuman25
quote:
Thing to watch today and tonight is too see if 99l continues west into Cuba or turn west northwest and just stay offshore of Cuba. Well needs to fire convection also.
It fires convention every night, but the convection is blown away from the coc by the sheer.
Nothing is going to develop until the sheer relaxes no matter which direction it goes.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 2:12 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
By no means is this system done with yet.
zombiecane
Posted on 8/25/16 at 2:12 pm to doubleb
I don't understand any of the weatherman lingo.
Is it leaning towards "we fricked" or "we good"?
Is it leaning towards "we fricked" or "we good"?
Posted on 8/25/16 at 2:12 pm to Bama and Beer
Well, looking at the GFS, there's hardly any wind shear.
SST's still forecasted to be high
LINK
My thinking is that we need her to either strengthen now, or completely get ripped apart into nothing. If she stays weak into the GOM and passes below S FLA, but still somewhat intact she will have ample opportunity to strengthen, then it all comes down to timing. Does the southeast ridge move east? If so when? Does she somehow form her own path? Does she continue to move west? There's just no way to predict anything, especially with how much model swinging there has been over the past few days. The problem is people see what they want to see. The models show a Cat 5 coming to LA, those who want that to happen come out and pump it up. Models show it weakly going to FL, those who want that to happen come out. Perception is reality. Instead of talking about every possibility cause everything is unknown at this point it all becomes a pissing contest between both camps.
SST's still forecasted to be high
LINK
My thinking is that we need her to either strengthen now, or completely get ripped apart into nothing. If she stays weak into the GOM and passes below S FLA, but still somewhat intact she will have ample opportunity to strengthen, then it all comes down to timing. Does the southeast ridge move east? If so when? Does she somehow form her own path? Does she continue to move west? There's just no way to predict anything, especially with how much model swinging there has been over the past few days. The problem is people see what they want to see. The models show a Cat 5 coming to LA, those who want that to happen come out and pump it up. Models show it weakly going to FL, those who want that to happen come out. Perception is reality. Instead of talking about every possibility cause everything is unknown at this point it all becomes a pissing contest between both camps.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 2:13 pm to doubleb
Here's the sheer map. It looks like once it gets past the Inagua islands the sheer will slow down
This post was edited on 8/25/16 at 2:14 pm
Posted on 8/25/16 at 2:16 pm to CuseTiger
Yes, however, things may grow more hostile around Florida as predicted early on by the GFS and more recently by the Euro.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 2:16 pm to tigerbutt
quote:
This thing likely will just fizzle out. Too many want it to be something dramatic.
quote:
Getting torn apart...
This
Posted on 8/25/16 at 2:22 pm to purpleleaf
Almost like people here are disappointed this thing is dying, its weird
Posted on 8/25/16 at 2:23 pm to Cosmo
(no message)
This post was edited on 6/28/19 at 9:44 am
Posted on 8/25/16 at 2:23 pm to Cosmo
it's not dying. it hasn't even gotten started yet.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 2:24 pm to Cosmo
Schadenfreude
Posted on 8/25/16 at 2:25 pm to longhorn22
quote:
I see that too...
Why the
??? I want it to not get organized.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 2:25 pm to Cosmo
quote:
Almost like people here are disappointed this thing is dying, its weird
Such is the life of a wishcaster. Hey there Cosmo, how have you been?
Posted on 8/25/16 at 2:26 pm to baytiger
Bay is it possible with this thing being weak that it makes it to the gulf and isn't picked up by the high pressure and just sits out there and builds up.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 2:27 pm to Cosmo
I want to be edgy like you when I grow up
Posted on 8/25/16 at 2:27 pm to baytiger
quote:
it hasn't even gotten started yet.
It better get started soon. The naked look is not good for her. How's it going bay? Long time no see.
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