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re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine
Posted on 8/25/16 at 1:41 pm to LSU1NSEC
Posted on 8/25/16 at 1:41 pm to LSU1NSEC
Every model predicted a weak storm in the short term.
Things to pay attention to:
Does it make it to the gulf? Conditions are prime for intensification.
How strong is the ridge and does it stay in place? I don't see anything breaking down the ridge quickly.
The key to survival is this thing staying weak until it makes it to the gulf.
Things to pay attention to:
Does it make it to the gulf? Conditions are prime for intensification.
How strong is the ridge and does it stay in place? I don't see anything breaking down the ridge quickly.
The key to survival is this thing staying weak until it makes it to the gulf.
3
Posted on 8/25/16 at 1:43 pm to GEAUXmedic
What's the best model?
Posted on 8/25/16 at 1:44 pm to Duke
quote:
Looking for something a little more technical than that.
Haha, I know. The GFS has not been as good over the last few years, and has lagged behind other models like the Euro and UKMET in terms of reliability. But heck, it may be right this time after all.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 1:45 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
By no means is this system done with yet. There is still potential for changes.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 1:46 pm to LSU1NSEC
quote:
GFS has been predicting a weak storm for a while now. Maybe it was right all along.
This would end up being a huge bust for the Euro. Now, the GFS has never been one to handle success and it will probably throw up a Cat 5 next run just to make sure no one actually starts taking it serous
Posted on 8/25/16 at 1:47 pm to rds dc
quote:
This would end up being a huge bust for the Euro. Now, the GFS has never been one to handle success and it will probably throw up a Cat 5 next run just to make sure no one actually starts taking it serous
BUT, if GFS comes out on top...
'murica
This post was edited on 8/25/16 at 1:48 pm
Posted on 8/25/16 at 1:48 pm to GEAUXmedic
America frick yea coming to save the motherfricken day
Posted on 8/25/16 at 1:48 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
Does it make it to the gulf? Conditions are prime for intensification.
Can you explain how conditions are ripe? Or, more specifically, what models shows conditions being ripe when this would get into the Gulf which would be in a 2-3 days I guess. Almost none of the models are seeing good conditions in the gulf.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 1:49 pm to GEAUXmedic
through context clues, i can understand almost all of the jargon from the experts...except "the ridge". what's "the ridge"?
Posted on 8/25/16 at 1:50 pm to link
I want to know as well
Posted on 8/25/16 at 1:52 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
Every model predicted a weak storm in the short term.
Things to pay attention to:
Does it make it to the gulf? Conditions are prime for intensification.
How strong is the ridge and does it stay in place? I don't see anything breaking down the ridge quickly.
The key to survival is this thing staying weak until it makes it to the gulf.
The models have been flopping around a bit but the trend has been to a less favorable upper level pattern across the Gulf. There is a massive ULL drifting in from the east that is altering the upper level flow. If it hangs back some or takes a more SW track, then it might actually improve upper level flow across the Gulf. Still a good bit of uncertainty but the trends have certainly been to a weaker less organized system.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 1:53 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
What's the best model?
This one. It's almost guaranteed to be correct.....
Posted on 8/25/16 at 1:55 pm to rds dc
This thing likely will just fizzle out. Too many want it to be something dramatic.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 1:56 pm to tigerbutt
quote:
This thing likely will just fizzle out. Too many want it to be something dramatic.
#science
Posted on 8/25/16 at 1:57 pm to tigerbutt
quote:
Too many want it to be something dramatic.
Oh, that's what it is?
Posted on 8/25/16 at 1:58 pm to Bama and Beer
quote:
I want to know as well
watch the videos on tropicaltidbits.com
Dude explains the ridge pretty well in the video for Tuesday I think. I learned a lot.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 1:58 pm to LSURussian
My money is on the heart path.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 1:59 pm to tigerbutt
I don't think anyone wants here (other than trolls) want it to be something dramatic. Those of us who are weather nerds don't hope it's some destructive, cat 5 storm, we just take interest in watching it.
This post was edited on 8/25/16 at 2:00 pm
Posted on 8/25/16 at 2:01 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Tropical models way west this cycle...
Posted on 8/25/16 at 2:01 pm to rds dc
This gif that you posted shows the best closed circulation of 99L yet due north of Hispaniola.
It's just outrunning the convection.
It's just outrunning the convection.
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