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Started By
Message
Elon Musk outlines his master plan 2.0
Posted on 7/21/16 at 11:18 am
Posted on 7/21/16 at 11:18 am
LINK
What really matters to accelerate a sustainable future is being able to scale up production volume as quickly as possible. That is why Tesla engineering has transitioned to focus heavily on designing the machine that makes the machine -- turning the factory itself into a product. A first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold improvement is achievable by version 3 on a roughly 2 year iteration cycle. The first Model 3 factory machine should be thought of as version 0.5, with version 1.0 probably in 2018.
In addition to consumer vehicles, there are two other types of electric vehicle needed: heavy-duty trucks and high passenger-density urban transport. Both are in the early stages of development at Tesla and should be ready for unveiling next year. We believe the Tesla Semi will deliver a substantial reduction in the cost of cargo transport, while increasing safety and making it really fun to operate.
With the advent of autonomy, it will probably make sense to shrink the size of buses and transition the role of bus driver to that of fleet manager. Traffic congestion would improve due to increased passenger areal density by eliminating the center aisle and putting seats where there are currently entryways, and matching acceleration and braking to other vehicles, thus avoiding the inertial impedance to smooth traffic flow of traditional heavy buses. It would also take people all the way to their destination. Fixed summon buttons at existing bus stops would serve those who don't have a phone. Design accommodates wheelchairs, strollers and bikes.
Autonomy
As the technology matures, all Tesla vehicles will have the hardware necessary to be fully self-driving with fail-operational capability, meaning that any given system in the car could break and your car will still drive itself safely. It is important to emphasize that refinement and validation of the software will take much longer than putting in place the cameras, radar, sonar and computing hardware.
Even once the software is highly refined and far better than the average human driver, there will still be a significant time gap, varying widely by jurisdiction, before true self-driving is approved by regulators. We expect that worldwide regulatory approval will require something on the order of 6 billion miles (10 billion km). Current fleet learning is happening at just over 3 million miles (5 million km) per day.
I should add a note here to explain why Tesla is deploying partial autonomy now, rather than waiting until some point in the future. The most important reason is that, when used correctly, it is already significantly safer than a person driving by themselves and it would therefore be morally reprehensible to delay release simply for fear of bad press or some mercantile calculation of legal liability.
According to the recently released 2015 NHTSA report, automotive fatalities increased by 8% to one death every 89 million miles. Autopilot miles will soon exceed twice that number and the system gets better every day. It would no more make sense to disable Tesla's Autopilot, as some have called for, than it would to disable autopilot in aircraft, after which our system is named.
It is also important to explain why we refer to Autopilot as "beta". This is not beta software in any normal sense of the word. Every release goes through extensive internal validation before it reaches any customers. It is called beta in order to decrease complacency and indicate that it will continue to improve (Autopilot is always off by default). Once we get to the point where Autopilot is approximately 10 times safer than the US vehicle average, the beta label will be removed.
Sharing
When true self-driving is approved by regulators, it will mean that you will be able to summon your Tesla from pretty much anywhere. Once it picks you up, you will be able to sleep, read or do anything else enroute to your destination.
You will also be able to add your car to the Tesla shared fleet just by tapping a button on the Tesla phone app and have it generate income for you while you're at work or on vacation, significantly offsetting and at times potentially exceeding the monthly loan or lease cost. This dramatically lowers the true cost of ownership to the point where almost anyone could own a Tesla. Since most cars are only in use by their owner for 5% to 10% of the day, the fundamental economic utility of a true self-driving car is likely to be several times that of a car which is not.
In cities where demand exceeds the supply of customer-owned cars, Tesla will operate its own fleet, ensuring you can always hail a ride from us no matter where you are.
So, in short, Master Plan, Part Deux is:
Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage
Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments
Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning
Enable your car to make money for you when you aren't using it
* * * * *
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS; ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
Certain statements in this blog post, such as those about future products, services and features, are “forward-looking statements” that are subject to risks and uncertainties. These forward-looking statements are based on current expectations. Various important factors could cause actual results to differ materially. Tesla disclaims any obligation to update this information.
This communication is not an offer or a solicitation of an offer to purchase, sell or exchange securities or a solicitation of a proxy from any stockholder. Subject to future developments, additional documents regarding the proposed transaction may be filed with the SEC, which investors should read carefully if and when they become available because they contain important information. Investors may obtain a free copy of the documents filed by Tesla, when they are available, from the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov. Tesla, its directors and certain of its executive officers may be deemed to be participants in a solicitation of proxies for the proposed transaction. Information about the directors and executive officers of Tesla is set forth in its proxy statement for the 2016 annual meeting of stockholders, as filed with the SEC, and will be included in the relevant documents regarding the proposed transaction filed with the SEC.
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What really matters to accelerate a sustainable future is being able to scale up production volume as quickly as possible. That is why Tesla engineering has transitioned to focus heavily on designing the machine that makes the machine -- turning the factory itself into a product. A first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold improvement is achievable by version 3 on a roughly 2 year iteration cycle. The first Model 3 factory machine should be thought of as version 0.5, with version 1.0 probably in 2018.
In addition to consumer vehicles, there are two other types of electric vehicle needed: heavy-duty trucks and high passenger-density urban transport. Both are in the early stages of development at Tesla and should be ready for unveiling next year. We believe the Tesla Semi will deliver a substantial reduction in the cost of cargo transport, while increasing safety and making it really fun to operate.
With the advent of autonomy, it will probably make sense to shrink the size of buses and transition the role of bus driver to that of fleet manager. Traffic congestion would improve due to increased passenger areal density by eliminating the center aisle and putting seats where there are currently entryways, and matching acceleration and braking to other vehicles, thus avoiding the inertial impedance to smooth traffic flow of traditional heavy buses. It would also take people all the way to their destination. Fixed summon buttons at existing bus stops would serve those who don't have a phone. Design accommodates wheelchairs, strollers and bikes.
Autonomy
As the technology matures, all Tesla vehicles will have the hardware necessary to be fully self-driving with fail-operational capability, meaning that any given system in the car could break and your car will still drive itself safely. It is important to emphasize that refinement and validation of the software will take much longer than putting in place the cameras, radar, sonar and computing hardware.
Even once the software is highly refined and far better than the average human driver, there will still be a significant time gap, varying widely by jurisdiction, before true self-driving is approved by regulators. We expect that worldwide regulatory approval will require something on the order of 6 billion miles (10 billion km). Current fleet learning is happening at just over 3 million miles (5 million km) per day.
I should add a note here to explain why Tesla is deploying partial autonomy now, rather than waiting until some point in the future. The most important reason is that, when used correctly, it is already significantly safer than a person driving by themselves and it would therefore be morally reprehensible to delay release simply for fear of bad press or some mercantile calculation of legal liability.
According to the recently released 2015 NHTSA report, automotive fatalities increased by 8% to one death every 89 million miles. Autopilot miles will soon exceed twice that number and the system gets better every day. It would no more make sense to disable Tesla's Autopilot, as some have called for, than it would to disable autopilot in aircraft, after which our system is named.
It is also important to explain why we refer to Autopilot as "beta". This is not beta software in any normal sense of the word. Every release goes through extensive internal validation before it reaches any customers. It is called beta in order to decrease complacency and indicate that it will continue to improve (Autopilot is always off by default). Once we get to the point where Autopilot is approximately 10 times safer than the US vehicle average, the beta label will be removed.
Sharing
When true self-driving is approved by regulators, it will mean that you will be able to summon your Tesla from pretty much anywhere. Once it picks you up, you will be able to sleep, read or do anything else enroute to your destination.
You will also be able to add your car to the Tesla shared fleet just by tapping a button on the Tesla phone app and have it generate income for you while you're at work or on vacation, significantly offsetting and at times potentially exceeding the monthly loan or lease cost. This dramatically lowers the true cost of ownership to the point where almost anyone could own a Tesla. Since most cars are only in use by their owner for 5% to 10% of the day, the fundamental economic utility of a true self-driving car is likely to be several times that of a car which is not.
In cities where demand exceeds the supply of customer-owned cars, Tesla will operate its own fleet, ensuring you can always hail a ride from us no matter where you are.
So, in short, Master Plan, Part Deux is:
Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage
Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments
Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning
Enable your car to make money for you when you aren't using it
* * * * *
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS; ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
Certain statements in this blog post, such as those about future products, services and features, are “forward-looking statements” that are subject to risks and uncertainties. These forward-looking statements are based on current expectations. Various important factors could cause actual results to differ materially. Tesla disclaims any obligation to update this information.
This communication is not an offer or a solicitation of an offer to purchase, sell or exchange securities or a solicitation of a proxy from any stockholder. Subject to future developments, additional documents regarding the proposed transaction may be filed with the SEC, which investors should read carefully if and when they become available because they contain important information. Investors may obtain a free copy of the documents filed by Tesla, when they are available, from the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov. Tesla, its directors and certain of its executive officers may be deemed to be participants in a solicitation of proxies for the proposed transaction. Information about the directors and executive officers of Tesla is set forth in its proxy statement for the 2016 annual meeting of stockholders, as filed with the SEC, and will be included in the relevant documents regarding the proposed transaction filed with the SEC.
SHARE
Google+
Model S
Model X
Model 3
Supercharger
About
Careers
Contact
My Tesla
Order a Tesla
Incentives
Test drive events
Forums
Accessories & apparel
Investors
Suppliers
Tesla Motors © 2016
Privacy & Legal
Posted on 7/21/16 at 11:22 am to bmy
(no message)
This post was edited on 8/8/20 at 10:24 am
Posted on 7/21/16 at 11:23 am to TexasTiger39
quote:
He divorced his first wife, who once complained he was treating her like an employee; she told a Musk biographer he responded that if she were an employee, he’d have fired her. They had five children together.
(about Elon Musk)
per NYT article
Posted on 7/21/16 at 11:25 am to bmy
That's mighty strong. I like it.
Posted on 7/21/16 at 11:26 am to bmy
WTL;DR
Summarize that garbage of a post
Summarize that garbage of a post
Posted on 7/21/16 at 11:28 am to TexasTiger39
people who post TL;DR are generally all morons. If you didn't read great. Why do you need to tell everyone that you can't read quickly?
Posted on 7/21/16 at 11:28 am to Rabbs and QStick
Jesus, what a bunch of lazy fricks. The TL;DR is at the end:
quote:
So, in short, Master Plan, Part Deux is:
Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage
Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments
Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning
Enable your car to make money for you when you aren't using it
Posted on 7/21/16 at 11:29 am to bmy
Will he have Tesla Model 3 owners sign non disclosure agreements in exchange for repairing their broken cars like he does for other Tesla products?
quote:
LINK
NHTSA warns Tesla over non-disclosure pacts
U.S. auto safety regulators have chastised Tesla Motors over reports that it used nondisclosure agreements with consumers in exchange for covering out-of-warranty repair costs on some of vehicles.
A National Highway Traffic Safety Administration spokesman said in a statement that the agency learned of a “troublesome” Tesla nondisclosure agreement last month over a repair issue that could have safety implications.
quote:
In one, Tesla reportedly offered to pay half of the $3,100 repair bill for a customer whose 2013 Model S suspension failed at just 70,000 miles, according to the post. In exchange, the customer was asked to keep the offer and “incidents or claims leading or related to our provision of the Goodwill,” confidential. The language, the blog post said, appeared to imply that customers accepting the deal would be barred from reporting the incident to NHTSA as a potential safety issue.
This post was edited on 7/21/16 at 11:31 am
Posted on 7/21/16 at 11:29 am to Byron Bojangles III
Summary Musk wants to build self driving 18-wheelers and buses.
Battery powered.
Ambitious but at least he is trying to make the world a better place and people hate him for it.
Battery powered.
Ambitious but at least he is trying to make the world a better place and people hate him for it.
Posted on 7/21/16 at 11:29 am to TexasTiger39
quote:Cliffnotes:
jesus frick; tldr
So, in short, Master Plan, Part Deux is:
Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage
Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments
Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning
Enable your car to make money for you when you aren't using it
Posted on 7/21/16 at 11:30 am to shel311
fricking idiots up in this thread. Elon put a tl;dr in the fricking statement.
Posted on 7/21/16 at 11:31 am to Korkstand
quote:
Enable your car to make money for you when you aren't using it
If this means letting strangers ride around in my car and get their filth all over it I'll pass.
Posted on 7/21/16 at 11:31 am to bmy
quote:
I should add a note here to explain why Tesla is deploying partial autonomy now, rather than waiting until some point in the future. The most important reason is that, when used correctly, it is already significantly safer than a person driving by themselves and it would therefore be morally reprehensible to delay release simply for fear of bad press or some mercantile calculation of legal liability.
I like being this part of the plan. This can't be stressed enough.
He basically wants to create a fleet of users for people to own and then be summoned when they are parked at your office/house and not being used.
It's nothing earth shattering, but it's a noble cause they will make us all safer and drive down the true ownership cost of vehicles.
Posted on 7/21/16 at 11:33 am to bmy
love the plan
hope they can execute it.
hope they can execute it.
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