If the NCAAA had a college recruiting rule that schools are only allowed

Tulane

Ohio State, Penn State, & LSU would be looking good.

LSU is looking really good.

Texas, Georgia, LSU, USC, Florida would all be at the top. I'd put OSU and even like Auburn/Alabama (have to think they'd cannibalize each other) in a second tier.

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who would win the first national title?

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USC, Florida, or Texas. Mainly due to the high number of quality athletes from those states and many of those that choose to go out of state currently. Also, provided those schools continue to out recruit the other schools within their state.

LSU would fair well, but quality and depth at certain positions would hurt. For example: QB.

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to recruit within the confines of their own state (i.e. no out of state recruiting was allowed) who would win the first national title?

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1) Ohio State - A lot of talent with no real competition for recruits.
2) Texas - More talent, but more schools to deplete their recruiting pool. However they already get about 90% of their recruits from in state and compete for national titles.
3) Florida, FSU or Miami - Lot of talent, but big competition for recruits.
4) USC, Cal, UCLA, Stanford - Good talent, but again competition for recruits.

Honorable Mentions: LSU, bama/auburn, Georgia and Penn State.

Dang, Alabama may have had JaMarcus Russell and Phillip Rivers as their QBs. Might not have been too bad.