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MLB Pitching: changing speeds ever going to replace a 4 seam fastball clocking 100 MPH?

Posted on 2/17/26 at 7:07 pm
Posted by Paul Allen
Montauk, NY
Member since Nov 2007
78112 posts
Posted on 2/17/26 at 7:07 pm
Are we well past those days? Used to be a pitching prospect was highly rated by his ability to change speeds and give you 30 starts a season.

Nowadays no one really goes anywhere near 30 starts and is only looking for a 4 seam fastball that clocks 100 mph plus.
Posted by Undertow
Member since Sep 2016
9040 posts
Posted on 2/17/26 at 7:16 pm to
The heater has always been king. Throw 100 in addition to changing speeds and locating and you broke the game. Look at all the successful flame throwers today. They all have a good off speed pitch.
This post was edited on 2/17/26 at 7:18 pm
Posted by OhioLSUfan
Columbus, OH
Member since Oct 2007
1988 posts
Posted on 2/17/26 at 7:20 pm to
You need swing & miss to be a successful pitcher and the best way to do that is with velo.
Posted by LSUBoo
Knoxville, TN
Member since Mar 2006
103802 posts
Posted on 2/17/26 at 7:31 pm to
The good ones still change speeds.. but it's from a 100mph fastball to an 88mph curve or change. Skubal and Skenes do that.. when they're all coming that fast it's even harder to adjust to just 10-12mph difference.
Posted by Fanatics
Member since Nov 2025
304 posts
Posted on 2/17/26 at 7:56 pm to
Aaron Nola lives in the low 90s, commanding the strikezone is the most important trait
Posted by Zappas Stache
Utility Muffin Research Kitchen
Member since Apr 2009
42789 posts
Posted on 2/17/26 at 8:41 pm to
Changing speeds and location are still very important. If all you can do is pump heat, MLB hitters will destroy you. Develop a good slider and you can have success. Develop a change too and you will be a top pitcher.
Posted by MikeD
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2004
8273 posts
Posted on 2/17/26 at 8:52 pm to
quote:

Aaron Nola lives in the low 90s


How about the dominant pitchers in MLB?
Posted by UAinSOUTHAL
Mobile,AL
Member since Dec 2012
5271 posts
Posted on 2/17/26 at 9:00 pm to
Greg Maddux tooped out at 92 mph but he could place the ball wherever he wanted and change speeds at will.
I would take a Greg Maddux over anyone who can throw 100+
Posted by PP7 for heisman
New Orleans
Member since Feb 2011
9218 posts
Posted on 2/17/26 at 10:38 pm to
quote:

Greg Maddux tooped out at 92 mph but he could place the ball wherever he wanted and change speeds at will.

He also had one of the best changeups of all time, was afforded a much bigger zone, and mistakes weren't killed as much in his time.
quote:

I would take a Greg Maddux over anyone who can throw 100+

Maddux was also unicorn. It's not as simple as "a guy who throws 92 with command vs a guy who throws 100."

Skenes has the ability to be better than Maddux, and he throws 100. His first full season, at 23, 2 years into being a PO, is as good as Maddux' 4th best (age 31) season. I'd argue 3rd best season but volume helps Maddux' argument there.

Clemons has a better career WAR than Maddux and he was a flame thrower. Johnson is right there with Maddux, also a flame thrower.

The harder thrower with good off speed will pretty much always be better than the guy who sits low 90s with command.

Posted by PP7 for heisman
New Orleans
Member since Feb 2011
9218 posts
Posted on 2/17/26 at 10:42 pm to
quote:


Are we well past those days? Used to be a pitching prospect was highly rated by his ability to change speeds
Outside of limited relievers, guys change speeds just as much as they ever have. They also have a shite ton more movement than they've ever had.
quote:

30 starts a season.
This is mitigated by deeper bullpens.

The 1995 Braves used 20 pitchers on the season, with 12 making double digit appearances.

The 2025 Pirates used 31 pitchers, with 21 making double digit appearances.
Posted by TexasTiger08
Member since Oct 2006
29603 posts
Posted on 2/17/26 at 11:02 pm to
Deeper bullpens and teams willingness to get quirky with rotations will decrease starts per pitcher.

Flat heat will get crushed. You need something in your arsenal to complement 100 mph gas, even if you want to be a closer.
Posted by chew4219
Member since Sep 2009
3104 posts
Posted on 2/18/26 at 6:19 am to
quote:

Greg Maddux tooped out at 92 mph


I’m pretty sure his 92, would be 94-95 these days with the new way velocity is tracked. Instead of taking velocity at 50’ after the release it’s tracked immediately out of the pitchers hand.
Posted by Tiger Ugly
Baton Rouge
Member since Jul 2008
18256 posts
Posted on 2/18/26 at 7:22 am to
Missing bats is the key metric and velocity always gives the best chance for that. Changing speeds can miss bats too, but not as much - you can get weak contact factored in more, which in most cases is good but the certainty of success still is not as high as missing bats.
Posted by ProjectP2294
South St. Louis city
Member since May 2007
76372 posts
Posted on 2/18/26 at 7:47 am to
quote:

Greg Maddux tooped out at 92 mph


At a time when the average starter fastball was around 90.
Posted by Skenes
Member since Mar 2025
456 posts
Posted on 2/18/26 at 7:55 am to
MLB still had 43 SP make 30+ starts and 83 make 25+
Posted by Zendog
Santa Barbara
Member since Feb 2019
6629 posts
Posted on 2/18/26 at 8:04 am to
nearly 50 pitchers had at least 30 starts last year
Posted by bstaceyau19
New Orleans
Member since Jun 2022
1155 posts
Posted on 2/18/26 at 8:08 am to
Great pitchers evolve over time. Felix Henandez as he got older and was losing juice on his fastball went to work on improving his changeup. So, as his fastball got a tad slower, his offspeed stuff got better and he could still get outs.

As far as the guys whose only stuff is the 100 mph 4-eamer, they need to get their butts into the bullpen and close. Either that or prepare for several visits from Mr. Tommy John.
Posted by ProjectP2294
South St. Louis city
Member since May 2007
76372 posts
Posted on 2/18/26 at 8:17 am to
quote:

nearly 50 pitchers had at least 30 starts last year


Number of starts isn't really a big issue. Very few guys are even nearing 200 IP. Even getting to 162 IP has been decreasing for a while.
Posted by dblwall
Member since Jul 2017
1355 posts
Posted on 2/18/26 at 8:43 am to
Maddux said it best



Posted by Champagne
Sabine Free State.
Member since Oct 2007
54299 posts
Posted on 2/18/26 at 9:32 am to
quote:

You need swing & miss to be a successful pitcher and the best way to do that is with velo.


That's what I keep telling my 4 year old son, but, he just doesn't seem to get it or be interested in it.

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