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Is outright deflation the only thing that will turn around public opinion on economy?
Posted on 1/24/26 at 10:52 pm
Posted on 1/24/26 at 10:52 pm
Economic polling since late 2021 (when inflation hit) has been in the toilet.
Public view have not really gotten better even though the rate of inflation has decreased to only a bit above the target.
Yougov asked respondents if their view of the economy would brighten if inflation was restored to 2% and only 10% of the respondents who rate the economy as poor would say their mind would change.
Since cost of living, rather than unemployment, is the main driver of sour moods right now, could it paradoxically be the case that a period of sustained deflation would cause economic polling to improve?
Public view have not really gotten better even though the rate of inflation has decreased to only a bit above the target.
Yougov asked respondents if their view of the economy would brighten if inflation was restored to 2% and only 10% of the respondents who rate the economy as poor would say their mind would change.
Since cost of living, rather than unemployment, is the main driver of sour moods right now, could it paradoxically be the case that a period of sustained deflation would cause economic polling to improve?
10
Posted on 1/24/26 at 10:57 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Dude if we end up with outright deflation you’re going to have problems you can’t even imagine.
Posted on 1/24/26 at 11:06 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Posted on 1/24/26 at 11:15 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
The better solution - and will help public polling - is for wages to rise big time. But that would require reducing the labor pool via continued deportation of non-citizens and ceasing the H1B program: two things that the big corporations absolutely love. It's a quandry, and not going to be solved anytime soon with a deadlocked country.
Posted on 1/24/26 at 11:24 pm to SloaneRanger
quote:
Dude if we end up with outright deflation you’re going to have problems you can’t even imagine
^^^This right here. If we hit massive deflation the most precious metal in the US will be copper wrapped lead.
Posted on 1/25/26 at 6:52 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
Don’t worry …. “it’s transitory “
Posted on 1/25/26 at 8:03 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
Back in December of 2024, I posted this in response to Trump saying he was going to bring the cost of groceries “way down” and people defending him, saying everyone really knows what he means:
LINK
LINK
quote:
I didn’t say he was doing anything different; I’ve always disagreed with Trump’s faithful following on the point of whether he’s just like any other self serving politician. What I’m saying is that I think middle America is about to be very, very confused when a year from now, their grocery bill isn’t a dollar cheaper. We’ll see how they handle that realization when we get there.
Posted on 1/25/26 at 8:07 am to Joshjrn
I remember posting prices would not reduce appreciably as new 'set points' were established and at best items would be 'on sale' but to expect price reductions of any consequence...pffffft
Posted on 1/25/26 at 8:11 am to wfallstiger
Well inflation still running closer to 3% anyways. Most average Americans are used to gas prices driving this number.
The difference is that it's rent, electricity, and grocery prices there are much higher than the 3%. They see that everyday as prices continue to rise.
It doesn't help that Trump said he would lower prices. Typical politician speak. This is why we always flip back and forth
The difference is that it's rent, electricity, and grocery prices there are much higher than the 3%. They see that everyday as prices continue to rise.
It doesn't help that Trump said he would lower prices. Typical politician speak. This is why we always flip back and forth
Posted on 1/25/26 at 8:24 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
It will take a while for high prices to not dominate public opinion. We have never recovered from the rapid increases during covid. It is at 2.7% and has not reached the 2% goal at any time since that was the stated goal. The majority of the country is struggling with prices.
Your statement that it is only a bit above the target doesn't account for the compounded effect. The price of Oreos is over $6.
Your statement that it is only a bit above the target doesn't account for the compounded effect. The price of Oreos is over $6.
Posted on 1/25/26 at 9:08 am to SloaneRanger
Wasn't most of the Obama term a deflation period that was covered up by government spending?
Posted on 1/25/26 at 9:08 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
You don’t want to hit deflation, that’s bad.
The problem is you had 20% cumulated inflation over a year or two and it’s only decreased to 3%. Tariffs and the whipsaw effects from the unknown impacts of them on top of inflation don’t help.
I think what people need is for inflation to average down to 2-3% over several years. That means sub 1.5 inflation and steady wage growth over 4 or 5 years. But that’s just my opinion.
The problem is you had 20% cumulated inflation over a year or two and it’s only decreased to 3%. Tariffs and the whipsaw effects from the unknown impacts of them on top of inflation don’t help.
I think what people need is for inflation to average down to 2-3% over several years. That means sub 1.5 inflation and steady wage growth over 4 or 5 years. But that’s just my opinion.
Posted on 1/25/26 at 3:57 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
We got Trump and Biden inflation because of Covid that was off the charts. The 3% now is compounding on the Covid increase. Trump and Biden fricked the middle class with their covid response
Posted on 1/25/26 at 5:49 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
What will solve sentiment….either a golden age of growth with 6%+ GDP growth to at results in major real wage growth or…time. The saying of “time heals all wounds” will apply with sentiment. People will simply get used to the “new normal” and finally accept it.
Posted on 1/25/26 at 7:58 pm to DaTruth7
quote:
We got Trump and Biden inflation because of Covid that was off the charts. The 3% now is compounding on the Covid increase. Trump and Biden fricked the middle class with their covid response
The COVID inflation had nothing to do with Trump or Biden.
The entire world faced unprecedented inflation, and by every metric, America came out the best.
We need a worldwide reset.
Posted on 1/26/26 at 5:33 am to The_Duke
Sure it did. Salaries couldn’t keep up with the insane money printing and the inflation it caused. It’s not rocket science.
Posted on 1/26/26 at 7:57 am to Joshjrn
That was an interesting thread to go back and read.
Posted on 1/26/26 at 8:30 am to ragincajun03
quote:
That was an interesting thread to go back and read.
My favorite exchange had little to do with the thread. A poster said the president has less power than people think he does, but Trump wishes that weren’t true. This is the exchange:
—-
quote:
because Donald trump thinks he should be.
-
Yet he wants less influence around the world, at least military wise and basically is the reason the President has no authority over abortion anymore. I don’t believe he throws power around any more than any other president has over the last 50 years.
—-
Now that was a hell of a thing to read in 2026
Posted on 1/26/26 at 11:04 am to lynxcat
quote:
a golden age of growth with 6%+ GDP growth to at results in major real wage growth
Until Congress gets control of its deficit spending, GDP isn't going to be able to grow us out of this. Going back to 2008, there were only 3-4 years where GDP's growth (as a whole number) outpaced that year's budget deficit. From 1980 - 2007, there was only one year where the deficit was larger than GDP growth (1991).
There is nothing in the works to turn us around from that path, only things keeping us going further down it. The only thing keeping us from going Weimar Republic is the global dominance of the USD, but that's been slowly changing as DC continues to abuse the USD.
Posted on 1/26/26 at 11:37 am to Bard
quote:
Going back to 2008, there were only 3-4 years where GDP's growth (as a whole number) outpaced that year's budget deficit. From 1980 - 2007, there was only one year where the deficit was larger than GDP growth (1991).
And there you go. The meats and potatoes of the story.
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