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OPEC: The World Will Need an Extra 19.5 Million Bpd Refining Capacity by 2050

Posted on 7/14/25 at 7:59 am
Posted by ragincajun03
Member since Nov 2007
27100 posts
Posted on 7/14/25 at 7:59 am
quote:

The world will need as much as 19.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of new refining capacity by 2050 to meet rising global oil demand, OPEC said in its 2025 World Oil Outlook (WOO) with forecasts through the middle of the century.

Overall, OPEC expects global oil demand to continue rising by 2050, with global oil demand projected to increase by more than 19 million bpd between 2024 and 2050, reaching nearly 123 million bpd.

India, Other Asia, the Middle East, and Africa are set to be the primary sources of long-term oil demand growth.
Combined demand in these four regions is set to increase by 22.4 million bpd between 2024 and 2050, with India alone adding 8.2 million bpd and being the single largest demand driver. Chinese demand growth is set to slow materially, while developed economies will see a decline in oil consumption by 2050.

However, emerging economies in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, as well as recent policy shifts and an improved economic outlook, will drive robust growth in the medium and long term, according to OPEC.

“There is no peak oil demand on the horizon,” the cartel’s Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais wrote in the foreword to the WOO published on Thursday.

As oil demand is set to grow, refining additions will be needed to meet said demand.


quote:

The global annual average rate of capacity additions for the period from 2024–2030 is estimated at just below 1 million bpd, OPEC said.

Refining capacity is set to increase by another 7.3 million bpd between 2030 and 2035, due to growing demand in most developing regions.

Around 3 million bpd is set to be added between 2035 and 2040, and only 1.2 million bpd in the 2045-2050 period, according to OPEC’s forecasts.


LINK
Posted by Gee Grenouille
Bogalusa
Member since Jul 2018
7421 posts
Posted on 7/14/25 at 8:03 am to
Good luck getting corporate America to agree to a refinery build.
Posted by Upperdecker
St. George, LA
Member since Nov 2014
32619 posts
Posted on 7/14/25 at 8:08 am to
Ok now convert that to units of wind turbines
Posted by LSURoss
Dragon Believer
Member since Dec 2007
16396 posts
Posted on 7/14/25 at 8:15 am to
quote:

refinery build.


What's the Per Diem rate?
Posted by Gee Grenouille
Bogalusa
Member since Jul 2018
7421 posts
Posted on 7/14/25 at 8:23 am to
quote:

What's the Per Diem rate?


3fitty.........

If the US wants this done, the tax payers will have to fund the build and develop the O&G supply chain from the GoA, then sell it to the highest bidder as a pre-approved facility. Corporations aren't going to take the chance on it.

And I would be fine with that arrangement.
Posted by AllDayEveryDay
Nawf Tejas
Member since Jun 2015
9083 posts
Posted on 7/14/25 at 9:07 am to
I'll be looking to retire around then so this is excellent news. Truck nuts on for life!
Posted by StringedInstruments
Member since Oct 2013
20310 posts
Posted on 7/14/25 at 9:12 am to
Naive question here: do we have any idea how much total oil is in the planet?

I mean, we’re digging down to tap into a source, right? There has to be a point where it’s drained empty.
Posted by Hammond Tiger Fan
Hammond
Member since Oct 2007
16404 posts
Posted on 7/14/25 at 9:44 am to
quote:


Naive question here: do we have any idea how much total oil is in the planet?


I have the same question. At some point we're going to run out and the entire world will be fricked. It's not going to happen within my or my kids' lifetime, but my great grand kids my have this problem to deal with.
Posted by BabysArmHoldingApple
Lafayette
Member since Dec 2016
1181 posts
Posted on 7/14/25 at 10:44 am to
quote:

I mean, we’re digging down to tap into a source, right? There has to be a point where it’s drained empty.


There is not really a single source. Although there are different ideas out there, the most accepted theory is that hydrocarbons were formed by organic matter (plants, dinosaurs, etc.) being buried for millions of years. The oil and gas is typically not found in underground "caves" or pools - rather, it exists in the pore space within rock. And it can migrate within the rocks until it is trapped by some type of underground feature (like a fault or impermeable rock). Therefore, the oil and gas exploration business is not so much about tapping into a single source, but more about finding these traps...some are big, some are not. On top of this, technology advances allow more accumulations to be found, and more volumes to be extracted once an accumulation is found.
Posted by fallguy_1978
Best States #50
Member since Feb 2018
52853 posts
Posted on 7/14/25 at 10:49 am to
quote:

At some point we're going to run out and the entire world will be fricked.

Yep. We have no suitable replacement for oil. It's in damn near everything. Perhaps we'll develop or discover one in 100 years.
Posted by iron banks
Destrehan
Member since Jul 2014
4170 posts
Posted on 7/14/25 at 10:52 am to
How Dare You
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
138911 posts
Posted on 7/14/25 at 10:55 am to
I guess they didn't factor in any global pandemics.
Posted by SuperSaint
Sorting Out OT BS Since '2007'
Member since Sep 2007
147708 posts
Posted on 7/14/25 at 10:57 am to
quote:

There has to be a point where it’s drained empty.
one day your dead organic molecules will be transformed to carbon fuel for future generations to burn
Posted by el Gaucho
He/They
Member since Dec 2010
58254 posts
Posted on 7/14/25 at 10:59 am to
They need to stop wasting oil on the 3rd world. Us Americans need to be able to affordably fill up our boats and side by sides
Posted by redstick13
Lower Saxony
Member since Feb 2007
40389 posts
Posted on 7/14/25 at 11:07 am to
quote:

I mean, we’re digging down to tap into a source, right? There has to be a point where it’s drained empty.


We haven't even started tapping into the Mayan sacrifices. Not sure if they've fully made the conversion yet.
This post was edited on 7/14/25 at 12:00 pm
Posted by Bjorn Cyborg
Member since Sep 2016
33759 posts
Posted on 7/14/25 at 11:29 am to
It's articles like this that proved how much bullshite the "climate change" industry" is.

I have long said that every drop of oil and gas that can be recovered on this planet, will be recovered.

Any talk of slow downs or stoppages in drilling are just people playing the game.
Posted by SWCBonfire
South Texas
Member since Aug 2011
1405 posts
Posted on 7/14/25 at 11:33 am to
quote:

Yep. We have no suitable replacement for oil. It's in damn near everything. Perhaps we'll develop or discover one in 100 years.


We have technically suitable or even superior replacements for oil, the synthetic oil in your new car is just one of them.

But it doesn't come out of the ground almost for free (net energy-wise) like petroleum does. O&G is essentially energy from the sun stored underground for millions of years.

Posted by Cuz413
Member since Nov 2007
9811 posts
Posted on 7/14/25 at 11:35 am to
quote:

Naive question here: do we have any idea how much total oil is in the planet?

I mean, we’re digging down to tap into a source, right? There has to be a point where it’s drained empty.


It was billed as fossil fuels to create a sense of scarcity to drive prices.

It is believed crude oil is a naturally formed geological composition formed deep within the earth. It is constantly being reformed under incredible pressure and temperature. Not the remains of an old T rex and ferns.
Posted by ragincajun03
Member since Nov 2007
27100 posts
Posted on 7/14/25 at 11:39 am to
quote:

It was billed as fossil fuels to create a sense of scarcity to drive prices.


It's also quite expensive to get out the ground and to market.
Posted by ragincajun03
Member since Nov 2007
27100 posts
Posted on 7/14/25 at 1:36 pm to
And now an update along this theme, more from OPEC's Secretary General:

quote:

In an exclusive interview with Energy Connects at the OPEC Secretariat in Vienna, His Excellency Haitham Al Ghais, OPEC Secretary General, spoke to Chiranjib Sengupta about the latest insights from the World Oil Outlook, the critical need for $18.2 trillion investments in oil & gas by 2050 and why oil & gas are not the villains of energy transition but the essential pillars of a stable and secure energy future. Speaking on the occasion of the 9th OPEC International Seminar, His Excellency highlighted how energy demand will increase 23% by 2050 and oil demand reach 123 million barrels a day by that period. His Excellency also shared his perspectives on the decade-long journey of OPEC+ , staying united and cohesive to achieve market balance and stability for both producers and consumers and how oil & gas companies are showing the pathways to a lower-carbon future.


LINK
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