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Started By
Message
How stable are NFL franchises in their city?
Posted on 5/23/25 at 2:35 am
Posted on 5/23/25 at 2:35 am
Was curious so I asked the AI in think longer mode. Here's what it said.
Here’s my best-judgment ranking of all 32 NFL franchises from least likely to most likely to relocate, based on a blend of market size, attendance & sell-out history, stadium lease security, local fan passion, ownership stability, and relocation rumors:
Green Bay Packers
Publicly owned, century-old home, league-leading sell-outs, tiny chance of move.
Dallas Cowboys
“America’s Team” in a booming metro, world-class stadium lease through 2055.
New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium under long-term lease, entrenched fanbase in one of the country’s wealthiest regions.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Iconic franchise, sold-out for decades, lease locked in through 2028 (with extensions likely).
New York Giants
NFL flagship market, joint MetLife Stadium lease through 2050, deep corporate/political ties.
Chicago Bears
Own land on lakefront with a new stadium planned; massive local support.
Philadelphia Eagles
Fanatical fanbase, one of the league’s highest attendances, new lease through 2057.
Kansas City Chiefs
Sell-out streak since 2009, Arrowhead under long-term lease, ownership committed.
San Francisco 49ers
Silicon Valley proximity, new Levi’s Stadium lease into 2035+, strong tech-era backing.
Los Angeles Rams
$5B SoFi Stadium investment, partnerships galore, stay-put for the foreseeable future.
Los Angeles Chargers
Share SoFi through 2040s, big-market anchor—even if fan turnout trails the Rams.
Las Vegas Raiders
Allegiant Stadium secured through 2046, massive local tourism revenue dependency.
New York Jets
MetLife Stadium co-tenant; despite attendance struggles, NFL won’t abandon the NY market.
Seattle Seahawks
CenturyLink/ Lumen lease through 2028 with extension options; blue-collar fan passion is rock solid.
Washington Commanders
FedExField lease through 2033, but major renovation/relocation talk has quieted since new ownership.
Miami Dolphins
Lease at Hard Rock Stadium tied to 2033, strong regional TV rights, minimal relocation chatter.
Baltimore Ravens
M&T Bank lease good through 2023 (with options); staunch local support after Browns left in ’96.
Minnesota Vikings
U.S. Bank Stadium bond-backed through 2048, near-sellouts, NFL’s cold-weather tentpole.
Cleveland Browns
New lease at FirstEnergy through 2034, “Factory of Sadness” becomes sell-out factory.
Denver Broncos
Mile-High lease through 2031, owner Walton-Peterson family deeply rooted.
Tennessee Titans
Lease at Nissan Stadium through 2032, strong regional draw even in a smaller market.
Indianapolis Colts
Lucas Oil tie-in through 2038, Hoosier loyalty, nearby Colts practice complex cements presence.
New Orleans Saints
Lease at the Superdome through 2035, “Who Dat” nation is famously unmovable.
Atlanta Falcons
Mercedes-Benz Stadium bond-financed through 2048; large media market but ownership remains stable.
Houston Texans
NRG Stadium lease to 2026 (with extensions), massive metro, no credible relocation buzz.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Lease through 2034 at Raymond James, sell-outs since Super Bowl run, solid Gulf Coast roots.
Cincinnati Bengals
Paul Brown Stadium bond-backed to 2037, small market but rabid fanbase and no relocation whispers.
Detroit Lions
Ford Field bond-backed into the mid-2030s, fan patience is low—but franchise commitment high.
Buffalo Bills
Lease through 2033 at Highmark Stadium, “Bills Mafia” uproarious support overcomes a small market.
Arizona Cardinals
State-backed lease at State Farm Stadium through 2036, but share with MLB’s Diamondbacks, lowest attendance of any NFL team.
Carolina Panthers
Bank of America Stadium lease ends 2030; shrinking market, mounting public-fund tensions, persistent relocation rumors.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Everbank/ TIAA-backed to 2030, NFL’s smallest media market, only 8 home dates per year here, London games increasing—by far the most vulnerable.
How I weighed things:
Market size & TV value: Nielsen DMA rankings (e.g., NY, LA, Chicago vs. Jacksonville, Buffalo)
Attendance & sell-outs: multi-year averages, percentage of capacity filled
Stadium & lease security: remaining lease length, public-finance stakes, stadium age/condition
Fan passion & local politics: grassroots movements, civic interest in keeping the team
Ownership & financial investment: recent stadium builds or renovations, owner statements
Relocation history/rumors: recent public chatter or concrete relocation proposals
Of course, any list like this is inherently speculative—but based on the data points above, this ordering reflects which franchises are most and least “locked in” to their current cities.
Eta: The list from top to bottom is least likely to most likely.
Here’s my best-judgment ranking of all 32 NFL franchises from least likely to most likely to relocate, based on a blend of market size, attendance & sell-out history, stadium lease security, local fan passion, ownership stability, and relocation rumors:
Green Bay Packers
Publicly owned, century-old home, league-leading sell-outs, tiny chance of move.
Dallas Cowboys
“America’s Team” in a booming metro, world-class stadium lease through 2055.
New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium under long-term lease, entrenched fanbase in one of the country’s wealthiest regions.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Iconic franchise, sold-out for decades, lease locked in through 2028 (with extensions likely).
New York Giants
NFL flagship market, joint MetLife Stadium lease through 2050, deep corporate/political ties.
Chicago Bears
Own land on lakefront with a new stadium planned; massive local support.
Philadelphia Eagles
Fanatical fanbase, one of the league’s highest attendances, new lease through 2057.
Kansas City Chiefs
Sell-out streak since 2009, Arrowhead under long-term lease, ownership committed.
San Francisco 49ers
Silicon Valley proximity, new Levi’s Stadium lease into 2035+, strong tech-era backing.
Los Angeles Rams
$5B SoFi Stadium investment, partnerships galore, stay-put for the foreseeable future.
Los Angeles Chargers
Share SoFi through 2040s, big-market anchor—even if fan turnout trails the Rams.
Las Vegas Raiders
Allegiant Stadium secured through 2046, massive local tourism revenue dependency.
New York Jets
MetLife Stadium co-tenant; despite attendance struggles, NFL won’t abandon the NY market.
Seattle Seahawks
CenturyLink/ Lumen lease through 2028 with extension options; blue-collar fan passion is rock solid.
Washington Commanders
FedExField lease through 2033, but major renovation/relocation talk has quieted since new ownership.
Miami Dolphins
Lease at Hard Rock Stadium tied to 2033, strong regional TV rights, minimal relocation chatter.
Baltimore Ravens
M&T Bank lease good through 2023 (with options); staunch local support after Browns left in ’96.
Minnesota Vikings
U.S. Bank Stadium bond-backed through 2048, near-sellouts, NFL’s cold-weather tentpole.
Cleveland Browns
New lease at FirstEnergy through 2034, “Factory of Sadness” becomes sell-out factory.
Denver Broncos
Mile-High lease through 2031, owner Walton-Peterson family deeply rooted.
Tennessee Titans
Lease at Nissan Stadium through 2032, strong regional draw even in a smaller market.
Indianapolis Colts
Lucas Oil tie-in through 2038, Hoosier loyalty, nearby Colts practice complex cements presence.
New Orleans Saints
Lease at the Superdome through 2035, “Who Dat” nation is famously unmovable.
Atlanta Falcons
Mercedes-Benz Stadium bond-financed through 2048; large media market but ownership remains stable.
Houston Texans
NRG Stadium lease to 2026 (with extensions), massive metro, no credible relocation buzz.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Lease through 2034 at Raymond James, sell-outs since Super Bowl run, solid Gulf Coast roots.
Cincinnati Bengals
Paul Brown Stadium bond-backed to 2037, small market but rabid fanbase and no relocation whispers.
Detroit Lions
Ford Field bond-backed into the mid-2030s, fan patience is low—but franchise commitment high.
Buffalo Bills
Lease through 2033 at Highmark Stadium, “Bills Mafia” uproarious support overcomes a small market.
Arizona Cardinals
State-backed lease at State Farm Stadium through 2036, but share with MLB’s Diamondbacks, lowest attendance of any NFL team.
Carolina Panthers
Bank of America Stadium lease ends 2030; shrinking market, mounting public-fund tensions, persistent relocation rumors.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Everbank/ TIAA-backed to 2030, NFL’s smallest media market, only 8 home dates per year here, London games increasing—by far the most vulnerable.
How I weighed things:
Market size & TV value: Nielsen DMA rankings (e.g., NY, LA, Chicago vs. Jacksonville, Buffalo)
Attendance & sell-outs: multi-year averages, percentage of capacity filled
Stadium & lease security: remaining lease length, public-finance stakes, stadium age/condition
Fan passion & local politics: grassroots movements, civic interest in keeping the team
Ownership & financial investment: recent stadium builds or renovations, owner statements
Relocation history/rumors: recent public chatter or concrete relocation proposals
Of course, any list like this is inherently speculative—but based on the data points above, this ordering reflects which franchises are most and least “locked in” to their current cities.
Eta: The list from top to bottom is least likely to most likely.
This post was edited on 5/23/25 at 2:38 am
13
Posted on 5/23/25 at 3:45 am to Guess
quote:They play in stadiums 20 miles apart
Arizona Cardinals State-backed lease at State Farm Stadium through 2036, but share with MLB’s Diamondbacks
quote:Their new stadium opens next year
Buffalo Bills Lease through 2033 at Highmark Stadium, “Bills Mafia” uproarious support overcomes a small market.
quote:The initial 40-year lease ends in 2054, with 20-year option to extend to 2074
San Francisco 49ers Silicon Valley proximity, new Levi’s Stadium lease into 2035+, strong tech-era backing.
If it’s botching basic facts like this in the few rows I know something about I’m going to default to every point in here being shite
This post was edited on 5/23/25 at 3:58 am
Posted on 5/23/25 at 4:19 am to Guess
quote:
Kansas City Chiefs
Sell-out streak since 2009, Arrowhead under long-term lease, ownership committed
The data is inaccurate. The state of kansas and Missouri are literally battling right now over which state they're going to be in after the current lease is up. The Missouri Governor is about to call a special session to focus on passing a bill to keep them. The problem really isn't the Chiefs, it's the Royals because they want a new stadium downtown but no one besides the Royals owner wants it there. Unfortunately both stadium deals are being delt with in one bill instead of separately.
Posted on 5/23/25 at 5:18 am to Guess
I think the Jags and Chargers are the most likely to move in the next 10-20 years.
Posted on 5/23/25 at 5:42 am to Guess
quote:
Carolina Panthers
quote:I'm not from that area but I'm pretty sure this isn't true.
shrinking market
Posted on 5/23/25 at 6:04 am to beaverfever
Yeah, my wife’s family is in Charlotte. It’s booming, for better or worse.
Posted on 5/23/25 at 6:08 am to Guess
I don't see any relocations within the next 20 years, except maybe the Chargers deciding they don't like being a little brother; however, I'm sure their lease would be expensive to exit.
I can see another expansion round, though.
I can see another expansion round, though.
This post was edited on 5/23/25 at 6:09 am
Posted on 5/23/25 at 7:01 am to Guess
quote:
Carolina Panthers Bank of America Stadium lease ends 2030; shrinking market, mounting public-fund tensions, persistent relocation rumors.
Since when is Charlotte a shrinking market?
What relocation rumors? Tepper also owns Charlotte FC. The Panthers aren’t moving.
Posted on 5/23/25 at 7:20 am to hottub
Jags moving is so tired.
Shad is building a massive entertainment center along the bank (shipyards), stadium is getting rebuilt for 1.4Billion, already approved by the city.
Now, just need to see if Trevor is the answer at QB, so far he is not.
Shad is building a massive entertainment center along the bank (shipyards), stadium is getting rebuilt for 1.4Billion, already approved by the city.
Now, just need to see if Trevor is the answer at QB, so far he is not.
Posted on 5/23/25 at 7:52 am to bcoop199
quote:
The data is inaccurate. The state of kansas and Missouri are literally battling right now over which state they're going to be in after the current lease is up. The Missouri Governor is about to call a special session to focus on passing a bill to keep them. The problem really isn't the Chiefs, it's the Royals because they want a new stadium downtown but no one besides the Royals owner wants it there. Unfortunately both stadium deals are being delt with in one bill instead of separately.
Moving out of arrowhead would be a travesty.
Posted on 5/23/25 at 7:58 am to Guess
quote:
Carolina Panthers
quote:
shrinking market
Charlotte and the Research Triangle are two of the fastest growing metro areas in the country.
Posted on 5/23/25 at 8:00 am to Guess
quote:
Detroit Lions-fan patience is low
What? They’re having their best run in god knows how many decades. After the shite they went through from 2001-2010, I’m sure they’re more than content with how things are going at the moment.
Posted on 5/23/25 at 8:22 am to boston vol
I don’t see any teams moving for a while
Posted on 5/23/25 at 9:06 am to Optimism
Cincinnati Bengals become Chicago Bengals 
Posted on 5/23/25 at 9:14 am to GetCocky11
AI is a troll
Posted on 5/23/25 at 9:18 am to Guess
quote:Bills have a lease through 2056 at the new highmark stadium
Buffalo Bills Lease through 2033 at Highmark Stadium, “Bills Mafia” uproarious support overcomes a small market.
Posted on 5/23/25 at 9:21 am to Guess
Is expansion a option in the NFL???.. or is the only way for a city to get a team is through relocation
Posted on 5/23/25 at 9:35 am to Guess
quote:
Chicago Bears
Own land on lakefront with a new stadium planned; massive local support.
This is not true and a huge reason why they were threatening to move to the burbs. The city owned the stadium so ownership was "losing out" on tons of revenue. The team wants to own the stadium but obviously wants the city to pay for it. Just sucks for them that they currently owe more now than when they took out the loan for the "new" Soldier Field...after paying for it for 22 years.
Only in Chicago. Eff 'em
I could also see Pittsburgh pressuring the city for a new stadium when that lease is coming up.
This post was edited on 5/23/25 at 9:37 am
Posted on 5/23/25 at 9:37 am to lepdagod
quote:
Is expansion a option in the NFL???.. or is the only way for a city to get a team is through relocation
I think the only expansion would be overseas. Current owners will try and squash US expansion because it gives them more leverage when they can threaten a move.
Posted on 5/23/25 at 9:41 am to mattz1122
AI now will basically tell you what you want to hear. When asked for an opinion it will give you the one it thinks you're after.
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