New polls showing Trump's battle w/ Canada is rallying support for Trudeau's Liberal party

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OTTAWA, Canada — As new tariffs came into effect on Tuesday, analysts say that if Canada's Liberal Party holds onto power, the party can thank President Donald Trump in part for such a reversal of political fortune.

Since Trump's inauguration, Canada's official opposition Conservative Party – once leading the governing Liberals by a wide margin – has seen their popularity in public-opinion polls gradually decline. 

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An Ipsos poll released last week found that, for the first time since the Liberals won the last federal election in 2021, they’re ahead of the Conservatives by two points, with 38% popularity compared to the Conservatives at 36%. Six weeks earlier, the Conservatives were leading the Liberals by 26 points. A general election is expected to be called as early as this spring by Trudeau's successor, who will be announced on Sunday.

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That's a pretty massive shift in six weeks. And almost certainly explains why Trudeau came out today acting like a strong man standing in the way of Trump. They're rallying around who's going to be the most vocal to stand up to Trump in the name of Canada.

So I guess you've got to weigh the risk vs reward here with the tariffs and 51st state talk vs political outcomes in Canada. Which is weighted heavier? A Pierre Poilievre lead Canada is probably friendlier toward us and more open to worker toward better trade outcomes but you may undercut that in the near term if we sit too hard on the tariffs angle now. So idk which path you take at the fork in the road here that's most favorable to us long term.