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Started By
Message
The Blue Wall is starting to Crack
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:54 am
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:54 am
13
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:55 am to John Barron
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:56 am to John Barron
Ain’t the only thing cracking.
The Dems are already pointing fingers before the morning of election day, which generally means they know they are up shite creek and want to deflect blame from themselves.
The Dems are already pointing fingers before the morning of election day, which generally means they know they are up shite creek and want to deflect blame from themselves.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:56 am to John Barron
Yep. GOP has their entire Election Day surge on the way. Dems go into Election Day 800k votes behind from 2020.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:57 am to John Barron
What does Data_republican say? Isn't he the one that gets into the weeds on this stuff?
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:59 am to John Barron
Cackles needs to win all of tge rust belt, which I don't see happening.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:59 am to John Barron
Posted on 11/1/24 at 10:01 am to Jake88
quote:
What does Data_republican say? Isn't he the one that gets into the weeds on this stuff?
Pretty sure it’s a chick. And she is saying it’s joever
Posted on 11/1/24 at 10:08 am to John Barron
There is a better chance Trump wins Pennsylvania by 4 points than Harris winning the state. All the cheating comes from mail in and early voting. Its much harder to cheat on election day.
Again
Biden had a 1.1 million vote lead in early voting.
Trump won election day by over 1 million votes but it wasn't enough - Biden won by 80,000.
Turnout is going to be down this year. Dems believed they needed a 600k vote lead to feel good and a 500k vote lead to have a chance. We are four days away and they are at 380k and its shrinking.
There are 290k outstanding Dem ballots and 205k outstanding GOP ballots.
The only way they get their firewall is if EVERY outstanding Dem ballot is returned and ZERO remaining GOP ballot is returned.
And that's just the firewall. If election day turnout is 60% of what it was in 2020, the firewall wont be enough.
States have been called with less supporting data. The media won't do it, but unless there is 30% turnoiut in rural areas and near 100% turnout in the cities, PA can be called when polls close.
Look at this. This is hard data.
Again
Biden had a 1.1 million vote lead in early voting.
Trump won election day by over 1 million votes but it wasn't enough - Biden won by 80,000.
Turnout is going to be down this year. Dems believed they needed a 600k vote lead to feel good and a 500k vote lead to have a chance. We are four days away and they are at 380k and its shrinking.
There are 290k outstanding Dem ballots and 205k outstanding GOP ballots.
The only way they get their firewall is if EVERY outstanding Dem ballot is returned and ZERO remaining GOP ballot is returned.
And that's just the firewall. If election day turnout is 60% of what it was in 2020, the firewall wont be enough.
States have been called with less supporting data. The media won't do it, but unless there is 30% turnoiut in rural areas and near 100% turnout in the cities, PA can be called when polls close.
Look at this. This is hard data.
This post was edited on 11/1/24 at 10:12 am
Posted on 11/1/24 at 10:19 am to anc
They know they are losing and so desperate. CNN is outright lying now saying Trump said Liz Cheney should be shot
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Posted on 11/1/24 at 10:20 am to John Barron
Well, that's just like his opinion. CNN and Marist polls show the VP surging across the Blue Wall.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 10:24 am to anc
quote:
near 100% turnout in the cities
The problem is the 150% urban turnout we are likely to see.
Dims are also crushing the 120-180y/o Demographic. They're really stepping up their ground game in graveyards and cemeteries across PA. Big voting block for those guys
This post was edited on 11/1/24 at 10:25 am
Posted on 11/1/24 at 10:27 am to anc
What’s the total amount of “other” votes cast?
Not trying to be contrarian, but your 380k number doesn’t include the independent split that democrats are banking on to get them to their 500k goal.
It’s going to be close.
Not trying to be contrarian, but your 380k number doesn’t include the independent split that democrats are banking on to get them to their 500k goal.
It’s going to be close.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 10:30 am to John Barron
No wonder the media is polling at 5% favorability among Americans.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 10:32 am to anc
The final PA early vote in 2020 was:
D 1,702,484
R 623,404
And current 2024 is:
D 947,214
R 553,158
There are 4 days left, so R will end roughly the same as R 2020, but D will be about 600-650K short of D 2020.
It's possible PA is a replay of 2020, except now 1/3 of scared 2020 Dems are no longer scared of the Kung Flu (PA's early voting is by mail, not in person, although you can drop off at a counter if you choose).
That's why I'm very cautious in my optimism about PA.
D 1,702,484
R 623,404
And current 2024 is:
D 947,214
R 553,158
There are 4 days left, so R will end roughly the same as R 2020, but D will be about 600-650K short of D 2020.
It's possible PA is a replay of 2020, except now 1/3 of scared 2020 Dems are no longer scared of the Kung Flu (PA's early voting is by mail, not in person, although you can drop off at a counter if you choose).
That's why I'm very cautious in my optimism about PA.
This post was edited on 11/1/24 at 10:34 am
Posted on 11/1/24 at 10:40 am to RidiculousHype
Have you factored in the +400K gain for R's in registered voters since 2020?
Posted on 11/1/24 at 10:45 am to Jwho77
Where does that info come from
Posted on 11/1/24 at 10:48 am to JumpingTheShark
Dems had a 686K advantage over R's in PA on election day 2020.
This time, that advantage is just 281K. Most of that shift has come in the last 2 years.
This time, that advantage is just 281K. Most of that shift has come in the last 2 years.
This post was edited on 11/1/24 at 10:49 am
Posted on 11/1/24 at 10:52 am to The Boat
quote:
Yep. GOP has their entire Election Day surge on the way.
My whole family in Georgia voted early. They've never done that before.
So I wouldn't just take for granted that all these early voters are those who usually don't vote.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 10:54 am to David Fellows
Yet nobody on here thinks he can win Pennsylvania
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