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When do you foresee the NIL market correcting itself?
Posted on 5/8/24 at 11:26 am
Posted on 5/8/24 at 11:26 am
I keep thinking boosters will grow weary of shelling out millions for mercenaries, many of which won’t pan out or stick around longer than one season to develop, but it hasn’t happened yet
It doesn’t seem like a feasible investment to pay top dollar for amateur free agents, but if you don’t keep up with the jones you risk turning over your whole roster every offseason.
Curious to see how long these universities are willing to let the tail wag the dog
It doesn’t seem like a feasible investment to pay top dollar for amateur free agents, but if you don’t keep up with the jones you risk turning over your whole roster every offseason.
Curious to see how long these universities are willing to let the tail wag the dog
Posted on 5/8/24 at 11:30 am to TulaneFan
I don't think it will take too long honestly. You will have your Jerry Jones types that keep spending but those are few and far between
Posted on 5/8/24 at 11:32 am to TulaneFan
It's going to come in-house at the schools soon, which will lower the burden on donors.
You'll always have the Phil Knight types who are going to do what it takes to win before he dies and doesn't have any interest in any ROI
You'll always have the Phil Knight types who are going to do what it takes to win before he dies and doesn't have any interest in any ROI
Posted on 5/8/24 at 11:34 am to Corinthians420
just like pro sports
it's a results driven business
coaches are gonna be fired a lot more quickly
you can't dole out money if the player doesn't have some kind of binding contract because the really good ones should shop their services every year
it's a results driven business
coaches are gonna be fired a lot more quickly
you can't dole out money if the player doesn't have some kind of binding contract because the really good ones should shop their services every year
Posted on 5/8/24 at 11:38 am to TulaneFan
Yall are forgetting that NIL benefits the donors as well. The more money you commit to NIL, the more favorably you and your business are looked at by the community/the school/the state government etc etc.
People like you and like your business when you are bankrolling the star players. There will always be other people/businesses looking to get some of that shine.
People like you and like your business when you are bankrolling the star players. There will always be other people/businesses looking to get some of that shine.
Posted on 5/8/24 at 11:45 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
Yall are forgetting that NIL benefits the donors as well. The more money you commit to NIL, the more favorably you and your business are looked at by the community/the school/the state government etc etc.
People like you and like your business when you are bankrolling the star players. There will always be other people/businesses looking to get some of that shine.
I thought about this also, but I honestly am not seeing a HUGE benefit to the donors. for example, if a local businessman pays a player to appear in a commercial for his car dealership (let's say Ford or GM) or restaurant (upscale Italian), am I gonna go to that car dealership or restaurant?
I mean, when I buy a car, i'm thinking longer term (5-8 years), and i still prefer certain cars (toyota, honda, lexus, subaru, etc), and I'm not gonna base my transportation needs for the next several years on a player who is only endorsing a car dealership because he got paid $100k to do so
also, not a huge fan of italian food (prepared for the downvotes), so I really wouldn't necessarily go there
i'm trying to think of other ways in which there is a significant financial benefit for the donors, but i'm struggling big time
Posted on 5/8/24 at 11:45 am to TulaneFan
quote:
but it hasn’t happened yet
Only been a couple of years, but it won't last too long.
Posted on 5/8/24 at 11:52 am to TulaneFan
Right now it’s both good and bad…
good: teams pay every scholarship football player a ‘salary’…which allows them to travel home quicker or to get position coach training.
bad: happy kids get calls from, (for example) say Oregon and offered $100k to transfer…that isn’t binding. Once you get in the portal, for them, then they have all the power (they could say $60k…who else is looking?). That, and you approach the school you’re at now and tell them. They’re pressured to buy you a car or whatever.
To protect 18-20 yr olds there needs to be agents involved…lawyers…ugh. I have a contract lawyer for my son, but there IS NO contract or anything to pour through, just words of football coaches. Strange world.
good: teams pay every scholarship football player a ‘salary’…which allows them to travel home quicker or to get position coach training.
bad: happy kids get calls from, (for example) say Oregon and offered $100k to transfer…that isn’t binding. Once you get in the portal, for them, then they have all the power (they could say $60k…who else is looking?). That, and you approach the school you’re at now and tell them. They’re pressured to buy you a car or whatever.
To protect 18-20 yr olds there needs to be agents involved…lawyers…ugh. I have a contract lawyer for my son, but there IS NO contract or anything to pour through, just words of football coaches. Strange world.
This post was edited on 5/8/24 at 11:55 am
Posted on 5/8/24 at 11:59 am to TulaneFan
Not any time soon...because there is always going to be a donor/booster who is desperate. Just click over on Tiger Rant. You have some (not all) who are furious LSU didn't grossly overpay for an otherwise average DT. Now take that mindset and put it in the mind of someone with significant wealth.
In this world of college sports there are no employment contracts and no salary caps. That means (particularly at the powerhouse schools) there will ALWAYS be at least one player the coach/booster feels is absolutely necessary to keep/sign...no matter the cost. And when the booster meets the demand it helps reset the market not just for the players at that particular school, but the entire marketplace for college football players.
Ask yourself this. Have the salaries in pro-sports (on average) ever decreased? No. They continue to rise with every big contract that resets the market.
The only way it would stop (outside of collective bargaining and agreement upon employment contracts) is if all of the boosters nationwide collectively agreed to suppress and "cap" NIL payments. Of course that will NEVER happen because competition drives the marketplace. If there is a booster who can land a #1 QB by spending over the agreed upon cap he's going to do it...because his desire to win overrides everything else.
Want to see a good example of that in action? Go read about the first version of the USFL in the early 80's. It started out as a league with all of the owners agreeing to a set of rules with the goal being to better the league as a whole. Greed and the desire to win VERY quickly took over and the informal salary cap was obliterated with ever increasing contracts and self interest, which ultimately resulted in the league's demise.
In this world of college sports there are no employment contracts and no salary caps. That means (particularly at the powerhouse schools) there will ALWAYS be at least one player the coach/booster feels is absolutely necessary to keep/sign...no matter the cost. And when the booster meets the demand it helps reset the market not just for the players at that particular school, but the entire marketplace for college football players.
Ask yourself this. Have the salaries in pro-sports (on average) ever decreased? No. They continue to rise with every big contract that resets the market.
The only way it would stop (outside of collective bargaining and agreement upon employment contracts) is if all of the boosters nationwide collectively agreed to suppress and "cap" NIL payments. Of course that will NEVER happen because competition drives the marketplace. If there is a booster who can land a #1 QB by spending over the agreed upon cap he's going to do it...because his desire to win overrides everything else.
Want to see a good example of that in action? Go read about the first version of the USFL in the early 80's. It started out as a league with all of the owners agreeing to a set of rules with the goal being to better the league as a whole. Greed and the desire to win VERY quickly took over and the informal salary cap was obliterated with ever increasing contracts and self interest, which ultimately resulted in the league's demise.
Posted on 5/8/24 at 12:01 pm to TulaneFan
quote:
Curious to see how long these universities are willing to let the tail wag the dog
They don't have a choice unless they want to struggle at athletics.
Posted on 5/8/24 at 12:01 pm to TulaneFan
Not for a while, the coaches will be the scapegoats until the big donors realize that sometimes when you pay a kid millions they just don’t pan out or bounce to another school
Posted on 5/8/24 at 12:04 pm to TulaneFan
A&M will find a way to destroy the market by continuing to overpay for mediocre talent and/or having good talent mismanaged by a coach who should know better.
Posted on 5/8/24 at 12:25 pm to TulaneFan
Very recent anecdote on this topic:
-Troy OL Derrick Graham transferred to A&M in January 2024. His NIL deal was worth $200k (unsure on the terms but highly reputable source on the $ amount)
-Graham became unhappy during spring ball given he was 2nd string
-Graham announced decision to re-enter the portal in April 2024 and join Tulane (Tulane hired Troy's former head coach)
-Unsure on Tulane's NIL $ deal but I can assure you it wasn't $200k
How much $ do you think he got out of A&M ? This is not sustainable.
-Troy OL Derrick Graham transferred to A&M in January 2024. His NIL deal was worth $200k (unsure on the terms but highly reputable source on the $ amount)
-Graham became unhappy during spring ball given he was 2nd string
-Graham announced decision to re-enter the portal in April 2024 and join Tulane (Tulane hired Troy's former head coach)
-Unsure on Tulane's NIL $ deal but I can assure you it wasn't $200k
How much $ do you think he got out of A&M ? This is not sustainable.
Posted on 5/8/24 at 12:28 pm to TulaneFan
As a few others have mentioned, given the number of schools, some booster will always be willing to fork over money somewhere.
While people may get tired of paying six figures to rotational DT, someone will always be desperate.
I don’t think the true correction will come until there is some type of university sponsored/controlled “pay for play” initiated, which involves contracts to limit player movement as well. It may not 100 percent be “employees of the school”.
Players will still be able to profit through endorsements based on their name, image and likeness.
While people may get tired of paying six figures to rotational DT, someone will always be desperate.
I don’t think the true correction will come until there is some type of university sponsored/controlled “pay for play” initiated, which involves contracts to limit player movement as well. It may not 100 percent be “employees of the school”.
Players will still be able to profit through endorsements based on their name, image and likeness.
Posted on 5/8/24 at 12:35 pm to Smoke90
For the donors, I don't think too many of them are looking at it as an advertisement. They larger the donor, the more access and, ultimately, influence they'll have to the program. People who have the type of money to throw 6 figures and more at HS kids to play for their favorite school aren't necessarily concerned with ROI. They want the prestige and perceived notoriety that comes with being the one who lured the 5* to that program.
Posted on 5/8/24 at 2:57 pm to TulaneFan
No one actually knows what any player is truly getting in NIL money because there are no contracts, just speculation for the most part.
Posted on 5/8/24 at 8:17 pm to TulaneFan
Don’t Brian Kelly’s comments indicate that things are working themselves out? LSU is going to spend, but not “overspend”. Players are going to make money, but it’s not the wild, wild west like it was at the beginning.
Posted on 5/8/24 at 8:36 pm to GoldenBoy
quote:
Don’t Brian Kelly’s comments indicate that things are working themselves out? LSU is going to spend, but not “overspend”. Players are going to make money, but it’s not the wild, wild west like it was at the beginning.
I think it depends on the school. Oklahoma's coming to the SEC has its boosters fired up and willing to spend. They'll retract when they are fighting to finish in the top 10 in the league, feeling like their investment didn't pay off.
Some mega boosters will always pay up. They get off on telling their buddy during a round of golf how they money whipped some kid into coming to their beloved alma mater.
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