re: Southeast Severe Weather: January 8-9, 2024

Damn looks like this system ramped up pretty bad overnight

I went to sleep around 10pm and it wasn’t doing much. Hate to hear about the panhandle I just woke up and saw the news, been sick as a dog the past few days can’t break this fever

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just because you came out unscathed, a lot of others didn't. maybe stop viewing it so self centered and look at the broad picture.

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Unfortunately the forecasters paint a really broad picture and their forecasts aren’t very specific and often they miss the mark.

well no fricking shite they do = thy do not sit around formulating specific forecasts for specific people/places. they setup a region to watch - they never say "everyone in the yellow shaded area will see bad weather' - they say pay attention, because the potential is there.

Another tornado touched down outside of Dothan in Cottonwood. Hit the town hard and had a confirmed fatality already. They have locked down the town performing search and rescue.

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This is where you employ the many tools provided to get a better understanding of the conditions that you need to prepare for in your location. It’s not hard. Most of it is contained in this very thread.

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Nah, asking people to take a bit of time to understand such things is entirely unreasonable. They need to be spoon fed exactly what will happen in their yard and the exact time it will happen. When a forecast verifies they always cry "no warning". When it busts (or doesn't reach its ceiling) they yell "overhyped". It is a story as old as weather forecasting itself.

And to toot my own horn, I noted the most likely failure mode on the first page:

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The question is going to be moisture and how far inland adequate moisture is able to get. There will be plenty of shear (spin) and okay CAPE. This is one of those setups that the Mobile area hates.

The main change since the initial 15% on the extended outlook is the area has been expanded farther North. Looks to be messy ahead of the front, but any cell that can last will have rotation. Eventually, it should line out into what is looking like a nasty QLCS that would likely have embedded rotation.

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I went on to pretty much nail how it would play out. That isn't some huge accomplishment, it was one of the more obvious forecasts (concerning failure modes) there is. Every discussion put out by the SPC noted it, and it is why they stuck with the Enhanced when a lot of people were crying for a Mod upgrade.

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Damn looks like this system ramped up pretty bad overnight

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Basically what happened is exactly what we were told was likely to happen Delta

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Nah, asking people to take a bit of time to understand such things is entirely unreasonable. They need to be spoon fed exactly what will happen in their yard and the exact time it will happen. When a forecast verifies they always cry "no warning". When it busts (or doesn't reach its ceiling) they yell "overhyped". It is a story as old as weather forecasting itself.

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And when this stuff happens everyone blames the industry and what frustrates me is the industry generally just takes it

Even Spann will lament how so many people can't read maps and don't receive the messaging they work so hard to put out but then will simply say the industry has to get better

There's always room for improvement but no, some people are just too stupid for their own good and you can't save them from it

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Aren't you the idiot who watches the little shitty app on his phone and posts hourly updates about the auto-generated rain forecast only to get pissy when it changes?

You should keep that helmet.

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Uhh...no that's actually not me.

You can take back my helmet.

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LegendInMyMind et al

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I sincerely appreciate you guys for taking the time to gather the information put it here and explain it. I have to be aware of weather conditions and be somewhat able to make plans to adjust quickly. Most of my preparation and planning is obtained right here.