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Message
re: The math for buying a home no longer works, per WSJ
Posted on 12/21/23 at 11:58 am to Scruffy
Posted on 12/21/23 at 11:58 am to Scruffy
quote:
It is just that the rate of increase is significantly less than the rate at which prices are increasing, something that started to widen in the 80s and then diverged heavily in the early 2000s and is widening even more now
You say significantly less.
But 20 year data shows it isn't significant.
Has there been a spike in the last 3 of 4 years? Sure. But there have been some pretty fricking huge dips over the past 20 years as well.
All of the bitching and moaning appears to be over a recent 3 year trend. But when put on a longer scale of 20 years, it is only a slight outpacing of income.
2
Posted on 12/21/23 at 12:06 pm to meansonny
quote:
All of the bitching and moaning appears to be over a recent 3 year trend. But when put on a longer scale of 20 years, it is only a slight outpacing of income.
We could probably pull this exact thread with roughly all the same arguments from 2018 OT.
Posted on 12/21/23 at 12:09 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
Yall said that 12 years ago. Yet we are still here and by yalls own admission, shite really isn’t any worse than it was before obama and co.
Hell a lot of yall are saying things are BETTER in Biden’s America than it was when yall came up under reagan, bush and clinton.
Clinton would be considered a right wing extremist by today's progressives
Also, much of what scares me is the trends I see, which are less relevant to finances: crime, social values, the weaponization of federal agencies, a willful failure/refusal to protect our border, out of control govt printing/spending (that one is definitely relevant to this conversation), etc etc.
Posted on 12/21/23 at 12:10 pm to Scruffy
quote:
The only way to fix it is to alter the direction our government is heading fiscally.
I’ll be honest, I think we are too far gone though.
I completely agree with you on the first part, hoping you're wrong on the second.
Posted on 12/21/23 at 12:20 pm to elprez00
quote:
Yes times have been hard before, but we’ve never been in a situation where the generation entering the workforce is saddled with so much competitive disadvantage when you factor in all these things. Most are paying on student loans,
I don’t know this to be true. I’ve heard similar stories when the boomers got into the work force, had to learn on the fly and mostly not near experienced enough.
I don’t know what to tell you. I know many young adults with families who own a home and do well. My daughter and son n law do great in Houston, have fun, neither are wealthy. I see everyone on here that wants the world to feel sorry for millennials yet we have no reason to feel sorry for yall or any other generation. There’s a shite ton of young and old millennials doing just fine and making it without parents help
Posted on 12/21/23 at 12:20 pm to meansonny
quote:
Has there been a spike in the last 3 of 4 years? Sure. But there have been some pretty fricking huge dips over the past 20 years as well.
there has been one national dip and a few regional dips here and there (like 2016 laffy due to oil dropping).
quote:
All of the bitching and moaning appears to be over a recent 3 year trend. But when put on a longer scale of 20 years, it is only a slight outpacing of income.
Posted on 12/21/23 at 12:21 pm to Chucktown_Badger
Crime is hugely relevant to this discussion.
A lot of areas where people would love to live are mostly off limits unless you’re ok with putting your family’s lives and wellbeing in jeopardy.
A lot of areas where people would love to live are mostly off limits unless you’re ok with putting your family’s lives and wellbeing in jeopardy.
Posted on 12/21/23 at 12:25 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
lot of areas where people would love to live are mostly off limits unless you’re ok with putting your family’s lives and wellbeing in jeopardy
This is true and unfortunate. I don’t know if the population of white trash and ghetto has shot up dramatically or what. So many good areas, apartments not even 10 years old, have gone to complete shite in the last few years. I hate to say white flight but if you are doing white flight you have to fly faster nowadays than in the past. So many middle class neighborhoods that use to stay that way for so long have quickly turned to ghetto and white trash in the blink of an eye
Posted on 12/21/23 at 12:29 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:they are in my thread history but it would take some digging. might look later.
We could probably pull this exact thread with roughly all the same arguments from 2018 OT.
Posted on 12/21/23 at 12:30 pm to Darth_Vader
I'm sorry but I'm just now seeing this gem of a post 
Literally no one is arguing or acting like this is the first generation who had to struggle.
If only y'all actually had this attitude. 99% of the threads on here are people bitching. You bitch constantly on here. So this is hilarious coming from you.
In fact, I'm going to post this exact response to you in the future when you are bitching about inflation or something, and you will call me a Marxist or some shite.
Guess which set of posters are arguing with actual data and objective truths and which group are arguing off of feeling and anecdotes?
quote:
I love it when people act like this is the first generation who had to struggle.
Literally no one is arguing or acting like this is the first generation who had to struggle.
quote:
Guess what, nobody gives a shite. The world owes you nothing and will give you nothing. Whining and bitching about it won’t fix a damn thing except make others look at you as a whiny bitch. Suck it up and get on with your life. No one is going to do it for you.
If only y'all actually had this attitude. 99% of the threads on here are people bitching. You bitch constantly on here. So this is hilarious coming from you.
In fact, I'm going to post this exact response to you in the future when you are bitching about inflation or something, and you will call me a Marxist or some shite.
quote:
The truth doesn’t care about your feelings.
Guess which set of posters are arguing with actual data and objective truths and which group are arguing off of feeling and anecdotes?
Posted on 12/21/23 at 12:32 pm to Mushroom1968
quote:
So many good areas, apartments not even 10 years old, have gone to complete shite in the last few years.
You see this around Houston a good bit. Master built communities with sexy amenities turns hood after the first few waves of buyers (even worse if it floods) because there is also another newer sexier community being built.
You can see this cycle in hyperdrive in Baton Rouge with LSU built-to-rent communities. The cottages were once full of frat stars and rich girls, now it is hood. Eventually, it will turn into Sharlo.
Posted on 12/21/23 at 12:33 pm to Mushroom1968
quote:
This is true and unfortunate. I don’t know if the population of white trash and ghetto has shot up dramatically or what. So many good areas, apartments not even 10 years old, have gone to complete shite in the last few years. I hate to say white flight but if you are doing white flight you have to fly faster nowadays than in the past. So many middle class neighborhoods that use to stay that way for so long have quickly turned to ghetto and white trash in the blink of an eye
That's what I did leaving Chicago, and I lived in a really nice area of town. But it was not great and I saw things getting a lot worse (which has been proven true) so I wanted to get out while I was still able to cash in on my condo. Seems like home prices have continued to go up from where I sold, but not too much. Reports show that things are slowing down and it'll be a buyers market soon.
Posted on 12/21/23 at 12:34 pm to Dire Wolf
I was an day 1 cottages bro
Truly an elite era
Truly an elite era
Posted on 12/21/23 at 12:41 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
I was an day 1 cottages bro
Truly an elite era
i was one of the bums that would sneak into the pool every day in the summer.
pitbull, natty light and 3' deep pool of piss. Life was simple
Posted on 12/21/23 at 1:06 pm to Dire Wolf
Look at your chart.
It is actually very informative.
1) look at the trend from 2000 to 2005. Then look at the trajectory from 2012 to 2020. It is pretty darn close. There is about a 7 year gap where the net effect is mostly unchanged.
2) your chart stops at 2020. I referenced the boom over the last 3 years.
3) for context on your chart, it claims "cumulative change since 2000". I was posting about the average annual change since 2000.
What does your chart confirm?
The annual average growth from 2000 to 2020 for home values is about 3.5%.
From 2020 to 2023, we have seen about a 14% average annual increase (left off your chart).
It is actually very informative.
1) look at the trend from 2000 to 2005. Then look at the trajectory from 2012 to 2020. It is pretty darn close. There is about a 7 year gap where the net effect is mostly unchanged.
2) your chart stops at 2020. I referenced the boom over the last 3 years.
3) for context on your chart, it claims "cumulative change since 2000". I was posting about the average annual change since 2000.
What does your chart confirm?
The annual average growth from 2000 to 2020 for home values is about 3.5%.
From 2020 to 2023, we have seen about a 14% average annual increase (left off your chart).
This post was edited on 12/21/23 at 1:08 pm
Posted on 12/21/23 at 1:29 pm to meansonny
quote:
From 2020 to 2023, we have seen about a 14% average annual increase (left off your chart).
very conveniently omitted
Posted on 12/21/23 at 1:32 pm to meansonny
quote:
What does your chart confirm?
The annual average growth from 2000 to 2020 for home values is about 3.5%.
it confirms that wages didn't keep up with housing costs even before the covid housing market boom, which was the point
Posted on 12/21/23 at 1:39 pm to Dire Wolf
quote:
it confirms that wages didn't keep up with housing costs even before the covid housing market boom, which was the point
According to SSA.Gov, annual wage growth was 3.27% over 20 years.
According to your chart, annual home appreciation is 3.5%.
We have a 31 page thread because people want 0.23% annual difference to be categorized as "significant" and unlike any burden ever carried by a previous generation.
Thanks for the supporting chart by the way.
Posted on 12/21/23 at 1:55 pm to meansonny
quote:
According to SSA.Gov, annual wage growth was 3.27% over 20 years.
According to your chart, annual home appreciation is 3.5%.
We have a 31 page thread because people want 0.23% annual difference to be categorized as "significant" and unlike any burden ever carried by a previous generation.
Thanks for the supporting chart by the way.
Average home cost in 2003 = $198,000
Average home cost in 2023 = $431,000
this is a 118% increase
Average wage in 2003 = $16/hr
Average wage in 2023 = $29/hr
this is a 81% increase
so, no its not 0.27% or whatever random number you keep mentioning, but the delta over the last 20 years bw average new home price and average wages is 36%
Posted on 12/21/23 at 2:00 pm to hubertcumberdale
Dude, stop your bitching and get a 4th job. Jesus Christ
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