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Message
re: Mortgage rates fall below 7% for the first time in months
Posted on 12/15/23 at 1:09 pm to itsbigmikey
Posted on 12/15/23 at 1:09 pm to itsbigmikey
I don’t see how there can be a crash like nobody has a house
I was dragged to brunch and all these 30s millenial professionals still lived with roommates
I suspect the reason they don’t have houses is because they’re spending like 80 bucks on brunch every Sunday
Anyway I may buy another house to rent out if something pops up
I was dragged to brunch and all these 30s millenial professionals still lived with roommates
I suspect the reason they don’t have houses is because they’re spending like 80 bucks on brunch every Sunday
Anyway I may buy another house to rent out if something pops up
0
Posted on 12/15/23 at 1:22 pm to Tmcgin
quote:Yeah, it's bizarre.
Funny a few here and most on the poliboard are pulling against America....saddest folks
Posted on 12/15/23 at 1:30 pm to thegreatboudini
quote:
The scramble from all of the folks sitting on the sidelines the last 8 months is about to push the modest home price decreases back up.
My parents are retired, house paid off. They are wanting to move in the near future. Been telling them to wait. The market is going to go crazy when rates get into the mid-low 5's again, even moreso if it hits the 4's.
Posted on 12/15/23 at 1:30 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
Funny a few here and most on the poliboard are pulling against America....saddest folks
Yeah, it's bizarre.
People want to be right themselves in what they believe instead of just wanting the country to do well.
Posted on 12/15/23 at 1:39 pm to itsbigmikey
quote:
This is proving my point. The economy is still way too hot for rate cuts. The fed knows something. The system didn't break enough to garner a cut IMO. We shall see
The fed is in kind of a tough spot. Houses are many people's biggest investment. If you're interested enough in money to be on this board in the first place you know how bad most in the country are at saving... most people can't cover a $500 expense and have no retirement savings, but many have a house.
So the values of the vast majority of people's largest investment is decreasing because of rates, and meanwhile on the other end of the spectrum the next generation can't get into their first house because of those rates. Even if the market jumps a good bit, a 3.5-4.5% rate gives you enough of a discount compared to over 7% that more people can get into a home, and then you're inflated the value of assets for people who depend on their home value (whether they realize it or not).
Then you have the market reality... indicators do seem to show that it would be better to keep rates up for longer, especially since we haven't been paying a huge price for it in terms of unemployment so far. I think a lot of the market's resiliency is leftover demand from COVID and the large exodus from the workforce during that time as well. We can't look at this and compare 1:1 with other times we had to raise rates.
Posted on 12/15/23 at 2:19 pm to Big Scrub TX
Why do y'all think my comment is pulling against America (assuming that was directed at me)? I work at a lumber yard and my livelihood is very correlated with housing/rates so diving into this topic is useful to me. I'm not tied to these views and welcome any contrarian opinions that prove otherwise.
Business/credit cycles play out and the evidence seems to show that the pain happens after the fed cuts... I'm here to learn and engage in productive discourse because I'm sure there are some brighter minds in the room. If that's pulling against America I guess we'll just start pumping dogecoin again or something so we can sweep real conversation under the rug.
Business/credit cycles play out and the evidence seems to show that the pain happens after the fed cuts... I'm here to learn and engage in productive discourse because I'm sure there are some brighter minds in the room. If that's pulling against America I guess we'll just start pumping dogecoin again or something so we can sweep real conversation under the rug.
Posted on 12/15/23 at 2:21 pm to itsbigmikey
quote:
I'll leave this here as a reminder. Hope I'm so wrong about all of this but it's worth considering
During 2007 to 2009 many metros in America had a 10 year supply of housing. Currently, the supply of existing homes for sale has hit a historical low nationwide. There is very little in common with 2007 and 2023. Lending standards, supply, demand, jobs, etc are different.
Posted on 12/15/23 at 2:24 pm to itsbigmikey
IDK about anyone else but I wasn't talking about you at all, moreso the hyper politicized people who get off on bad (or good) economic data that supports their views instead of just looking at it for what it is.
Posted on 12/15/23 at 2:31 pm to questionable
This is what I don't understand. It seems to be a net positive either way.
Rates Up = Home Prices down. Rates Down = Home Prices Up.
Is this not a zero sum game with no upside in any decision?
What am I missing?
Rates Up = Home Prices down. Rates Down = Home Prices Up.
Is this not a zero sum game with no upside in any decision?
What am I missing?
Posted on 12/15/23 at 2:31 pm to VolSquatch
We've got posters on here that have been predicting/discussing a housing crash going on 5 years now. Posting all kinds of charts and graphs trying to correlate modern day with 1970 or 1980 or even 2007. Things have changed in the world since then and just because something was true or the case in 1970 doesn't mean it matters today. Things are different and with the extremely low supply and people sitting on 3% rates that isn't likely to change anytime soon. I can remember posts in 2018 before I joined and was lurking saying "You'd have to be an idiot to buy a home at these prices!!!!!" Well, anyone who bought in any decent metro area in 2018, 2019, 2020, even 2021 is sitting on a ton of equity right now. Who were/are the idiots now?
Posted on 12/15/23 at 3:08 pm to ronricks
I completely agree and think the housing dynamics are extremely bullish for home prices. I just don't think it's insulated IF we have a credit event. My argument isn't against the S/D dynamics of the housing market but instead point to the history of interest rate hikes/cuts and how they subsequently affect all assets. If it happens, the stimulus and recovery that follow will be epic IMO
Posted on 12/15/23 at 3:13 pm to itsbigmikey
quote:
Something bad is brewing and bonds are outperforming equities.
Are they?
Posted on 12/15/23 at 3:14 pm to Nu Iota Prophet
quote:
This is what I don't understand. It seems to be a net positive either way.
Rates Up = Home Prices down. Rates Down = Home Prices Up.
Is this not a zero sum game with no upside in any decision?
What am I missing?
Stability. That's the only way to value homes correctly. Monkeying with interest rates to curb inflation, or stimulate growth causes this volatility.
Federal spending is a key contributor to inflation but there is never the urge to curtail spending to decrease the free dollars floating around. The construction industry is the sacrificial lamb when it comes to cooling down the economy.
Posted on 12/15/23 at 3:14 pm to ronricks
As someone that unfortunately closed in March of this year I'm just praying they touch the high 4% in the near future. I know we'll probably never see the 2% range in my lifetime but I'll take 4.5% 
Posted on 12/16/23 at 7:03 am to Sterling Archer
I closed December 2022. 4.5% is my trigger point to refinance.
This post was edited on 12/16/23 at 8:30 am
Posted on 12/16/23 at 7:56 am to itsbigmikey
quote:
The fed knows something
Yeah. 2024 is an election year. And to be re-elected, a certain campaign has to make the useful idiots believe that inflation is under control.
Posted on 12/16/23 at 8:43 am to itsbigmikey
quote:
Saw a quote that feels relevant: "The fed lowers rate at the end of an expansion, not the beginning of a new one."
Not if you get a soft landing.
Look, the best thing you can tell yourself is the truth - in any given year since 1930, there is about a 15% chance you’ll have a recession. Throw all that prognostication out of the window and live with the fact that they’re all fairly random. We’ll have many more going forward. We’ll survive.
This post was edited on 12/16/23 at 8:44 am
Posted on 12/16/23 at 8:44 am to fjlee90
quote:
Yeah. 2024 is an election year. And to be re-elected, a certain campaign has to make the useful idiots believe that inflation is under control.
You sound like a useful idiot if you actually believe this.
Posted on 12/16/23 at 8:52 am to itsbigmikey
A lot of bearish analysts point out that the crash has historically arrived about nine months after a fed pivot in all the recent major ones. I think there are too few sample sizes to call it reliable, and financial reality has changed so much. But you're right in that in the past, this moment has always been the first step in bad series of events.
Posted on 12/16/23 at 9:48 am to Tmcgin
quote:
Funny a few here and most on the poliboard are pulling against America....saddest
How is that bizarre
I give the government a shitton of money every year basically so I don’t go to jail and despite paying my dues the government still treats me like shite and I can’t do the things I want to do
The social contract is bullshite I never signed it. I suspect they signed me up for a life sentence against my will by fingerprinting me about the same time they took my foreskin to make Hillary Clinton’s wrinkle cream
ETA: the government doesn’t even fix the roads anymore they just send all our money to Ukraine Israel and food stamps
This post was edited on 12/16/23 at 9:54 am
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