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Started By
Message
Taking a poll: Who thinks and why:
Posted on 5/25/23 at 11:43 pm
Posted on 5/25/23 at 11:43 pm
1. We are already in a recession
2. We will enter a recession in next 3 months
3. No recession markets will stay same or go up
2. We will enter a recession in next 3 months
3. No recession markets will stay same or go up
20
Posted on 5/26/23 at 6:22 am to Thomas98
Not 1 or 2. We are back in the Obama economy: Very low to non-existent GDP growth and low unemployment caused in large part by so many people not participating in the labor market. Only this time we have rampant inflation. And for many what wage growth there is doesn’t come close to keeping up. Don’t know if that answers your question.
Posted on 5/26/23 at 7:34 am to Thomas98
We have been told a recession was going to happen for over a year now. Seems like we have been answering the same question every 3 months. Do think the higher interest rates have started taking effect on people looking for homes ,car loans etc...Still not affecting prices on food, energy etc.. Prices still sky high with no lowering on those. People still willing to pay outrageous prices on eating out, taking trips etc.. I can see this dragging out for another year or longer whatever it is we're in. To answer your question 
Anybody who does think they know they dont.
Anybody who does think they know they dont.This post was edited on 5/26/23 at 7:36 am
Posted on 5/26/23 at 7:43 am to Thomas98
If we don't enter a recession soon I'm really going to be worried for I Love Bama. Hopefully he shorted BUD to help him through these difficult times.
As for your question, Sloane made a good point. Hadn't really looked at it like that. I don't think the answer to your question is 1 or 2. If we do enter a recession, I think it's more likely 8-12 months down the road rather than 3 months. Although, my best guess right now tells me number 3 is probably most likely. I think the markets will essentially stay sideways for the next year or so.
As for your question, Sloane made a good point. Hadn't really looked at it like that. I don't think the answer to your question is 1 or 2. If we do enter a recession, I think it's more likely 8-12 months down the road rather than 3 months. Although, my best guess right now tells me number 3 is probably most likely. I think the markets will essentially stay sideways for the next year or so.
Posted on 5/26/23 at 8:09 am to Thomas98
2.78
Posted on 5/26/23 at 8:13 am to Thomas98
Should edit to add age on this. Interesting to see the difference between who had any money last time we saw this and who was still in school.
I say #2. Consumer tapped out. 68% of GDP. Bear Stearns was a crack in the system, but somehow none of the banking issues we have now seem to draw concern. It's amazing.
I say #2. Consumer tapped out. 68% of GDP. Bear Stearns was a crack in the system, but somehow none of the banking issues we have now seem to draw concern. It's amazing.
Posted on 5/26/23 at 8:37 am to Thomas98
1.
Small businesses not hiring. Layoffs are abounding. Banks are failing. Inventory not moving. We're at the top of a cliff ready to 2008 it.
Small businesses not hiring. Layoffs are abounding. Banks are failing. Inventory not moving. We're at the top of a cliff ready to 2008 it.
Posted on 5/26/23 at 9:02 am to Thomas98
3.
Employment is great, stock market is great. Mortgage rates are fine.
Government will raise debt ceiling, will not default.
Governments & currencies around the world are in worse shape than USD, which will strengthen the dollar.
Areas of concern: VC money is dry and getting drier. Stupid big bets seen over the past decade+ will stop. Your Uber ride will no longer be subsidized. BTC/Crypto, insofar as it isn't productive or producing anything of value, will devalue tremendously as the shine has worn off it as speculative gamble and its been left in the dust as far as new tech hype goes. Legalized gambling across the USA is a major problem - it is and will increasingly suck dollars out of the hands of consumers.
Trump will unfortunately get the GOP nomination, causing conservatives like myself to either stay home or vote for Biden. Biden will win re-election. The economy will not crash during this period and Biden will do nothing tremendously dangerous. Were Trump to pull off the win (not likely), more risk for the economy from wildcard factor. If Biden dies in office, expect markets to drop immediately which is the correct time to BUY BUY BUY. After that term, likely get a Republican in office (unless its Trump as nomination).
Employment is great, stock market is great. Mortgage rates are fine.
Government will raise debt ceiling, will not default.
Governments & currencies around the world are in worse shape than USD, which will strengthen the dollar.
Areas of concern: VC money is dry and getting drier. Stupid big bets seen over the past decade+ will stop. Your Uber ride will no longer be subsidized. BTC/Crypto, insofar as it isn't productive or producing anything of value, will devalue tremendously as the shine has worn off it as speculative gamble and its been left in the dust as far as new tech hype goes. Legalized gambling across the USA is a major problem - it is and will increasingly suck dollars out of the hands of consumers.
Trump will unfortunately get the GOP nomination, causing conservatives like myself to either stay home or vote for Biden. Biden will win re-election. The economy will not crash during this period and Biden will do nothing tremendously dangerous. Were Trump to pull off the win (not likely), more risk for the economy from wildcard factor. If Biden dies in office, expect markets to drop immediately which is the correct time to BUY BUY BUY. After that term, likely get a Republican in office (unless its Trump as nomination).
This post was edited on 5/26/23 at 9:09 am
Posted on 5/26/23 at 9:02 am to Thomas98
quote:
2. We will enter a recession in next 3 months
People are spending like there is no tomorrow. Look at housing and car purchasing.
I went with the SO to a DSW and it was mind blowing the amount of people in there.
What goes up must come down.
Posted on 5/26/23 at 9:05 am to Thomas98
Pain is for sure in the forecast, I think it may take longer than 3 months to set in though. People are pulling out all of the stops to maintain their spending.
Posted on 5/26/23 at 9:12 am to Thomas98
quote:That's the beauty of the Democrat Party. They move so methodically slow that they are undetectable. Glacial speed... The party of Stealth. Like that oak tree breaking the sidewalk outside your house.
1. We are already in a recession
Posted on 5/26/23 at 11:06 am to Thomas98
2, although it might be in the next 6 months rather than 3.
This post was edited on 5/26/23 at 11:08 am
Posted on 5/26/23 at 12:20 pm to Thomas98
Move #2 out to 6 months and I'm at 1.5.
We're flirting heavily with stagflation right now. The economy is shedding zombie companies like old skin, meaning millions are slowly trickling out into the job-seeking market while (at least higher paying) jobs are shrinking. Credit card rates being so high means they will not be able to live as long on the backs of their cards while they look for another job. This means fewer goods and services being sold.
Gasoline prices being ~$3.50/gallon (nationally) just adds to that poor outlook. Meanwhile, the federal government is throwing a fit about being told they have to cut just the rate of their spending growth (as opposed to cutting total spending YoY) while also pushing green policies which make just about everything more expensive.
Addendum: Inverted yield curves are pretty good at predicting recessions. The length and strength of the current inversion is something we haven't seen since the late 70s. If we do not go through a recession, it will be the first time we've seen an inversion like this not lead into one.
For those choosing the stonks answer (#3), what is it that you see in the economy which makes you choose that option?
We're flirting heavily with stagflation right now. The economy is shedding zombie companies like old skin, meaning millions are slowly trickling out into the job-seeking market while (at least higher paying) jobs are shrinking. Credit card rates being so high means they will not be able to live as long on the backs of their cards while they look for another job. This means fewer goods and services being sold.
Gasoline prices being ~$3.50/gallon (nationally) just adds to that poor outlook. Meanwhile, the federal government is throwing a fit about being told they have to cut just the rate of their spending growth (as opposed to cutting total spending YoY) while also pushing green policies which make just about everything more expensive.
Addendum: Inverted yield curves are pretty good at predicting recessions. The length and strength of the current inversion is something we haven't seen since the late 70s. If we do not go through a recession, it will be the first time we've seen an inversion like this not lead into one.
For those choosing the stonks answer (#3), what is it that you see in the economy which makes you choose that option?
This post was edited on 5/26/23 at 7:28 pm
Posted on 5/26/23 at 1:16 pm to Thomas98
Currently finishing a wage and benefit report for a county in Florida. Wages are up significantly in 2023. Hard to picture a recession when people are making a lot more money than they were in recent years and the housing market is still very stable.
The stock market is more stable now than in was in 2020.
The stock market is more stable now than in was in 2020.
Posted on 5/26/23 at 4:50 pm to Thomas98
We’re not entering a recession with the labor market strength today.
Maybe it starts in 3mos.. but I vote option D) 6-9mos.
Rates moving up and stupid valuations are suggesting recession isn’t right here, right now.
Maybe it starts in 3mos.. but I vote option D) 6-9mos.
Rates moving up and stupid valuations are suggesting recession isn’t right here, right now.
Posted on 5/27/23 at 6:53 am to Thomas98
We were already in a recession, until they "literally" changed the definition of what a recession was.
Posted on 5/28/23 at 9:45 am to Thomas98
(no message)
This post was edited on 6/18/23 at 1:57 pm
Posted on 5/28/23 at 9:58 am to Thomas98
We have been in a recession from the time a year ago that the Biden administration changed the traditional definition of a recession.
Posted on 5/28/23 at 10:20 pm to Thomas98
quote:6 months
2. We will enter a recession in next 3 months
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