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Started By
Message
re: 2022 Season - Pre Storm Gulf Watch
Posted on 5/13/22 at 11:44 am to Zephyrius
Posted on 5/13/22 at 11:44 am to Zephyrius
GFS picking up on the Central American gyre...
definition
definition
This post was edited on 5/13/22 at 11:46 am
0
Posted on 5/13/22 at 11:48 am to Duke
Was it strong? I don’t remember 
Posted on 5/13/22 at 12:06 pm to Zephyrius
We need the rain
Posted on 5/13/22 at 12:36 pm to Zephyrius
We need to start our own list of names.
Baw, Beta, Braydyn, Chad, Cuck, Hurricane McHurricaneface, Jody, Karen, Knucklecheck, OP's Mom, Sonic, Soyboy, Trashy, Travelball, Treefitty
We can use them for storms in the Gulf.
Baw, Beta, Braydyn, Chad, Cuck, Hurricane McHurricaneface, Jody, Karen, Knucklecheck, OP's Mom, Sonic, Soyboy, Trashy, Travelball, Treefitty
We can use them for storms in the Gulf.
Posted on 5/13/22 at 1:57 pm to TT
quote:
Yes but it goes to Mexico after entering the gulf
And now its headed to florida; 2 days ago it was going to the mouth of the river. The point isn't its final destination 14 days out, its that its a system that may develop to keep an eye on which GFS has been consistently showing coming into the Gulf.
Posted on 5/13/22 at 3:54 pm to Zephyrius
From Bob Breck's blog
I'll be watching over the next several days to see if models have any consistency in developing something, or is it the usual computer overhype?
I'll be watching over the next several days to see if models have any consistency in developing something, or is it the usual computer overhype?
Posted on 5/13/22 at 3:57 pm to Duke
quote:
You know how I know a strong hurricane hit SELA last year?
We're going to need more hamsters around this joint.
Posted on 5/13/22 at 3:59 pm to Zephyrius
quote:
And now its headed to florida
All that matters at this point is the Happy Hour GFS. I'm looking for a 940mb around Bay St. Louis to finish my collection.
This post was edited on 5/13/22 at 4:00 pm
Posted on 5/13/22 at 4:16 pm to LegendInMyMind
Call me when rds starts a thread
Posted on 5/14/22 at 7:01 am to Cosmo
GFS still persistent of something in the Gulf in the next 10 days or so.
Posted on 5/14/22 at 7:05 am to Zephyrius
You intentionally didn’t post where it ends up because you don’t want to be “that guy”, huh?
Posted on 5/14/22 at 7:07 am to Zephyrius
Nothing to worry about until they give us a cone.
Posted on 5/14/22 at 7:14 am to back9Tiger
quote:
This will be the third time in four years i've gone to the Florida panhandle in May with a freaking low in the gulf.
Well then i think we have found the problem.
Posted on 5/14/22 at 9:32 am to Zephyrius
PSA: Pay no attention to where this ends up going y'all.
See all that shear in front of it? Somehow, the GFS has it crank enough to nudge it out of the way and stay in less hostility.
I mean there's a god damn front coming and it strengthens in the face of it.
GFS gets it cranking too fast, in the face of hostile conditions and all that flow out the west next to it should be transporting a slug of dry air for it to eat.
Which makes the speed of the intensification suspect. That intensification has it start pumping the outflow and pushes away the PV streamer that would shear it bigly east (that is in the yellow colors in the gif below). Then gets tucked under a ridge and has decent conditions to work. That's why it strengthens into the 970s but again, the evolution still doesn't make a ton of sense to me.
Ensembles?
Some support from the GFS suite. Especially for an east runner and nothing as strong as the operational.
The Euro isn't really biting yet.
So until the GFS has a little more support for what it is doing...Gonna remain skeptical.
See all that shear in front of it? Somehow, the GFS has it crank enough to nudge it out of the way and stay in less hostility.
I mean there's a god damn front coming and it strengthens in the face of it.
GFS gets it cranking too fast, in the face of hostile conditions and all that flow out the west next to it should be transporting a slug of dry air for it to eat.
Which makes the speed of the intensification suspect. That intensification has it start pumping the outflow and pushes away the PV streamer that would shear it bigly east (that is in the yellow colors in the gif below). Then gets tucked under a ridge and has decent conditions to work. That's why it strengthens into the 970s but again, the evolution still doesn't make a ton of sense to me.
Ensembles?
Some support from the GFS suite. Especially for an east runner and nothing as strong as the operational.
The Euro isn't really biting yet.
So until the GFS has a little more support for what it is doing...Gonna remain skeptical.
Posted on 5/14/22 at 9:53 am to Duke
Booking my hotel in Bawcomville to evacuate.
Posted on 5/14/22 at 9:57 am to Duke
Damn!
Posted on 5/14/22 at 9:58 am to loogaroo
EBR just cancelled school the week after memorial day
Posted on 5/14/22 at 10:18 am to Duke
quote:
Ensembles?
The GFS/GEFS are doing their thing.
Climo is shifting towards that being a favorable area for development and there is strong tropical forcing (Not really a true MJO but a messy signal with a strong CCKW and some Rossby wave interference).
The CCKW passage is setting off convection across the Pacific and that momentum will help shake up that pattern across NAM. We will lose the Gulf of Alaska Low and replace it with a more typical May pattern.
This will result in a return of svr wx, weak fronts, and a wall of shear across the Gulf.
If anything forms, the current trends would favor typical early season CAG type development - sloppy mess.
Posted on 5/14/22 at 10:37 am to rds dc
quote:
rds
If anything forms, the current trends would favor typical early season CAG type development - sloppy mess.
This post was edited on 5/14/22 at 10:39 am
Posted on 5/14/22 at 10:38 am to rds dc
quote:
Rds dc
Dammit man, saw you’re name and thought “oh shite!!”.
So development is unlikely to lead to anything serious? Good news. If you say it…I book it!!!
No offense Duke. You’re good too.
This post was edited on 5/14/22 at 10:41 am
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