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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 4/24/24 at 6:46 pm to
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
3723 posts
Posted on 4/24/24 at 6:46 pm to
quote:

they’ve killed half a million men



Wait do you seriously think Ukraine has 500k KIA (meaning roughly 1M+ WIA) but Russia has only 50k KIA and can barely get the front line to move?
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
40191 posts
Posted on 4/24/24 at 6:48 pm to
quote:

We’re sending, what, 60 old aircraft?


93 now that Greece has joined the coalition and is donating 32 aircraft. Which will make Ukraine the 6th largest operator of F16s (since Denmark and the Netherlands will no longer operate the F16 once the transfer is complete) as well as double the size of the Ukrainian Air Force which currently has 86 fighters per open source intel.

ETA: 61+32 = 93 not 97. My bad. It has been a long day and I can't do math in my head this evening.
This post was edited on 4/24/24 at 7:19 pm
Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
2589 posts
Posted on 4/24/24 at 6:52 pm to
quote:

The Black Sea fleet was useful, insofar as the threat of an amphibious landing tied down Ukrainian forces early in the war, and that they could use those ships to launch missiles. Ultimately the Russian Navy doesn’t matter though, compared to the army and the aerospace forces. It’s not significant.


The landing ships are used to supply Crimea with missiles and other supplies.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
9632 posts
Posted on 4/24/24 at 6:54 pm to
quote:

FYI.. this is a red herring issue because anyone in any state can order abortion pills online and be done with it without any further medical procedure..


It's also a state to state issue back where it was before Roe v. Wade when it was legal in some states but not in most.
Posted by LeClerc
USVI
Member since Oct 2012
2740 posts
Posted on 4/24/24 at 6:56 pm to
The guy is full of shite and may be an actual Russian asset. He throws around statistics all the time in order to make Ukraine look bad or their war effort hopeless and then doesn't link them. If you take a look at his post history it’s all about Russian strength and the West's weakness. frick him.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
9632 posts
Posted on 4/24/24 at 6:56 pm to
quote:

Rezident quoted an unarmed source who describe Avdiivka as a battle where the Russians would drop bombs all day, annihilating whatever unit was holding the position, and the Ukrainians only option if they wanted to hold on, was to feed another unit into the line, but with the understanding that they wouldn’t last any longer than the unit that came before them, and that the outcome would be exactly the same. And that while you’re getting weaker, the enemy isn’t, not appreciably, because you really can’t do much to hurt them.


F16s change that dynamic due glide bomb are released from 10's of km and well within range of air to air missiles.
Posted by Lima Whiskey
Member since Apr 2013
19407 posts
Posted on 4/24/24 at 7:03 pm to
quote:

Wait do you seriously think Ukraine has 500k KIA (meaning roughly 1M+ WIA) but Russia has only 50k KIA and can barely get the front line to move?


The Russians realized in the late summer of 22 that fighting a war of attrition was their best option, victory wouldn’t be achieved by maneuver but by the physical destruction of the Ukrainian Army, and in way that resembled the Western Front in WW1.

Territorial gains would come when the Ukrainian Army broke down, and was no longer able to defend the length of the front. It didn’t matter if the lined moved, or it didn’t, what mattered was Russias ability to inflict casualties at a favorable rate, which they could do, because of their advantage in artillery and increasingly air power.

The price for the Russian here was time, victory wouldn’t come quickly, but one of the virtues of this strategy, was that it was thrifty, and they wouldn’t suffer large losses.

*the BBC Mediazona estimate is between 55k and 80k Russian deaths, last I looked.
This post was edited on 4/24/24 at 7:05 pm
Posted by ticklechain
Forgotten coast
Member since Mar 2018
481 posts
Posted on 4/24/24 at 7:04 pm to
quote:

AMRAAM has a 100 plus mile BVR bubble over the front line. Point. Counter Point.



So what's the Russian standoff capability? Pretty sure this kinda stuff will come into play
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
40191 posts
Posted on 4/24/24 at 7:07 pm to
quote:

Not to mention that Putin has intergrated his government into the Russian Orthodox Church. That goes back to Byzantium.


With the exception of the USSR era. Putin is resuming the the practice of the Czars who started many wars in Eastern Europe using “protection of Orthodox Christians” as the cause of the war in which many atrocities were committed.The ROC and the Russian government teaming up again is not something that will lead to good in the world. If Russia is successful you’ll have Greek vs Russian Orthodox strife in Eastern Europe similar to Sunni vs Shia strife in the Middle East.

quote:

Orthodoxy doesn’t have a head, it’s not Catholicism.


quote:

Nevertheless, the Ecumenical Patriarch of Constantinople is recognised by them as primus inter pares ("first among equals"),[16][17][18][19][20] a title formerly given to the patriarch of Rome.


The Patriarch of Constantinople has been considered the first among equals for over a millennium. The Russians believe that the Patriarch of Moscow should be the first among equals since the fall of Constantinople but the rest of the Orthodox world has laughed at that as well as Moscow’s claim to be the 3rd Rome.

quote:

Russia … can’t allow the Ukrainian women to continue to enter churches without head covers and for Orthodox worshippers to sit down.
Good


No not good. In the 17th Century, Russian soldiers slaughtered Greek Orthodox Christians whose ancestors had lived in the area around Odessa since before the time of Alexander the Great because they would not switch their allegiance to the Patriarch of Moscow. That is just one example of things that does not need to return to the world.
This post was edited on 4/24/24 at 7:27 pm
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
3723 posts
Posted on 4/24/24 at 7:14 pm to
quote:


The price for the Russian here was time, victory wouldn’t come quickly, but one of the virtues of this strategy, was that it was thrifty, and they wouldn’t suffer large losses.

*the BBC Mediazona estimate is between 55k and 80k Russian deaths, last I looked.


Correct, but you are stating a 10-1 KIA ratio with a front line that's moved 10s of kms not 100s of kms. If Ukraine was losing 10-1 KIA this war would would be over and Russia a lot bigger.

500k KIA implies a total casualty rate of around 2M to 2.5M or the entire Ukrainian Armed force or almost triple their current active force. That's why what your saying makes literally no sense. That kind of lose ratio and total casualty number, the lines would have collapsed months ago
Posted by ColtRange
Member since May 2023
539 posts
Posted on 4/24/24 at 7:52 pm to
quote:

Kuleba said Ukraine’s allies should switch from “expressing condolences and sympathy to Ukrainians and promising to help with recovery, to preventing loss of life and destruction of the country”.

He said the restoration of US military aid, held up for months by Donald Trump-aligned Republicans, would not be sufficient to defeat Russia. “No single package can stop the Russians. What will stop the Russians is a united front of all of Ukraine and all of its partners.”

Kuleba said the west needed to increase arms production, as Ukraine had, because it had been outpaced by Russia. Russia is out-shelling Ukraine by a ratio of about 10 to one, while Ukraine is running short of air defences.

“When I see what Russia achieved in building up its defence industrial base in two years of the war and what the west has achieved, I think something is wrong on the part of the west,” Kuleba said. “The west has to realise the era of peace in Europe is over.”


quote:

Kuleba said a move announced on Tuesday to terminate consular services for Ukrainian men of fighting age living abroad was about justice, at a time when “guys in the trenches are very tired”.

“They don’t understand why the government is not trying to bring more people into the war effort,” he said. Kuleba said it was unclear how many Ukrainian men would come back, but it was unacceptable for those outside the country to “sit down in restaurants” while others were dying.


Yeah, they're not coming back Dmytro.

Article
Posted by ColtRange
Member since May 2023
539 posts
Posted on 4/24/24 at 7:59 pm to
quote:

F16s change that dynamic due glide bomb are released from 10's of km and well within range of air to air missiles.


I doubt it, the AIM-9 missiles the US is sending have a range of like 20 miles. That's pretty damn close to the front. A bunch of F-16s are going to be shot down if that's what they're used for.

Who is supplying the AM-120s? These cost a million dollars a pop...shooting down $15,000 glide bombs, genius.
This post was edited on 4/24/24 at 8:05 pm
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
36182 posts
Posted on 4/24/24 at 8:32 pm to
quote:

The Russians realized in the late summer of 22 that fighting a war of attrition was their best option, victory wouldn’t be achieved by maneuver but by the physical destruction of the Ukrainian Army, and in way that resembled the Western Front in WW1.


Come on man, that’s ridiculous. One side doesn’t have 500K killed and the other 50K killed and it’s because of a war of attrition WWI style.

Posted by ColtRange
Member since May 2023
539 posts
Posted on 4/24/24 at 8:41 pm to
quote:

At this rate it will take them 50 years to get to Kiev.

And they're gonna run out of something at some point. Maybe it's tubes. (we know they don't have the hardened steel to make their own). Maybe it's armor. There is an end to their armor reserves.



quote:

This war can't go on forever. Russia has to figure out a way to win. Russia better have some big, big new idea to pull out of the hat. And within the next 18 months.

Putin has kept his coalition together by force of will. But unless he starts to deliver, he will find himself at the bottom of a window like everyone else.


This is some next level hopium, it's comical that you think Russia is the one on the clock. Which one is running out of men? Which one has to beg for aid just to make it another few months? Ukraine isn't kicking out new generations of men, they have one really young generation left...they haven't been trained and they know how bad things are at the front, good luck rounding them up.


I was watching Turning Point on Netflix last night and Michael McFaul said

"One of the last meetings I had with a very senior official, one of the closest people to Putin at the time, he said to me..

"If things get hot in Ukraine, you need to remember two things. One, we care more than you do. This is more important to us than it will ever be to the United States of America. And two, you people have really short attention spans. We don't."
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
3723 posts
Posted on 4/24/24 at 8:44 pm to
ISW Update

quote:

Key Takeaways:

US President Joe Biden announced on April 24 that the US will begin sending military equipment to Ukraine  “a few hours” after signing a bill that will provide roughly $60 billion of assistance to Ukraine.

The arrival of long-range ATACMS missiles in sufficient quantities will allow Ukrainian forces to degrade Russian logistics and threaten Russian airfields in deep rear areas, although months of delay may have provided the Russian military time to offset the potential operational impacts that ATACMS will afford Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted successful drone strikes against Russian energy and industrial facilities in Smolensk and Lipetsk oblasts on the night of April 23 to 24.

Russian authorities arrested Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov on April 24 on charges of accepting bribes, although other Russian sources reported that Ivanov is suspected of treason.

Ivanov’s arrest prompted Russian information space speculation about a new round of personnel changes in the Russian military and claims that the arrest is part of Kremlin factional conflicts.

Russian ultranationalist milbloggers largely celebrated Ivanov’s arrest and used it as an opportunity to publicly criticize the Russian MoD.

The Kremlin explicitly threatened Armenia if Armenia does not resume active engagement in the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and resume its pro-Kremlin alignment.

Kremlin-appointed Children’s Rights Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova deliberately misrepresented recent Qatari-mediated negotiations between Russia and Ukraine as the first face-to-face negotiations on the return of Ukrainian children forcibly removed and deported by Russia, likely in an effort to minimize Russia’s responsibility for the coordinated removal and deportation of Ukrainian children.

Moldovan authorities filed a criminal case against Yevgenia Gutsul, the Kremlin-affiliated governor of the pro-Russian Moldovan autonomous region of Gagauzia, for campaign finance violations as Moldovan officials continue to warn about Russia’s threat to Moldova.

Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Avdiivka, Donetsk City, and Robotyne.

Russian State Duma Committee on Information Policy Head Alexander Khinshtein stated on April 24 that unspecified Russian officials will soon submit a draft law to the State Duma that would ban the extradition of foreigners who have fought in Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine if the foreigners face prosecution for their military service in their home countries.


Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
9632 posts
Posted on 4/24/24 at 8:53 pm to
quote:

shooting down $15,000 glide bombs, genius.


Shooting down Russian jets. That's pretty simple to understand.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
9632 posts
Posted on 4/24/24 at 8:56 pm to
quote:

This is some next level hopium,


Russia lost 1.5 million of fighting age men who left Russia, most were among its best and brightest from digital tech to brain surgeons. That's at least 10% of its fighting age population and it has shitty demographics for actual survival as a nation already.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
9632 posts
Posted on 4/24/24 at 8:58 pm to
Furthermore, too bad that China is in demographic collapse or else it could just walk into Russia and take most of the land east of the Urals.
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
36182 posts
Posted on 4/24/24 at 9:03 pm to
The question is whether or not you believe Ukraine had l500,000 soldiers killed and Russia only 50,000 killed.

Wd sll understand Russia had more men, we know they are the stronger power, but that’s not the question.
Posted by Lee B
Member since Dec 2018
648 posts
Posted on 4/24/24 at 9:08 pm to
quote:

The paradigm has shifted to where moderate Republicans and moderate Democrats have more in common with each other than they do with the non-moderates in their respective parties, who are both more focused on waging culture battles than running government.

We have had the same two political parties for quite a while, now... 5 times in our country's past a third party has emerged and replaced one of the existing two... that hasn't happened in almost 150 years... maybe it is time.






I just saw this on the Poli Board and... tracks with what I said
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