re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Wow, there are some really harsh criticisms in this article.

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The war is a turning-point for Russia. It has consigned Mr Putin’s regime to broad international isolation. He has also had to deal with difficult domestic political undercurrents, from the rebellion by the mercenaries of the Wagner Group and other pockets of the military—for instance in Belgorod—to ethnic tensions in several Russian regions and the recent terrorist attack in Moscow. These show that political risk in Russia is very high. Mr Putin may recently have been re-elected, but he faces all kinds of possible black-swan events.

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Adding to the risks confronting Mr Putin, the war has convinced more and more former Soviet republics that Russia’s imperial ambition threatens their independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity. Increasingly aware that a Russian victory is out of the question, these states are distancing themselves from Moscow in different ways, from forging economic-development policies that are less dependent on Russia to pursuing more balanced foreign policies. As a result, prospects for the Eurasian integration that Russia advocates have dimmed.

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China’s relations with Russia are not fixed, and they have been affected by the events of the past two years. Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, has just visited Beijing, where he and his Chinese counterpart once again emphasised the close ties between their countries. But the trip appears to have been more diplomatic effort by Russia to show it is not alone than genuine love-in. Shrewd observers note that China’s stance towards Russia has reverted from the “no limits” stance of early 2022, before the war, to the traditional principles of “non-alignment, non-confrontation and non-targeting of third parties”.

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Since the war began China has conducted two rounds of diplomatic mediation. Success has proved elusive but no one should doubt China’s desire to end this cruel war through negotiations. That wish shows that China and Russia are very different countries. Russia is seeking to subvert the existing international and regional order by means of war, whereas China wants to resolve disputes peacefully.

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You can't say things like that in China without some form of approval, not unless you want to end up in a re-education camp.

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Isn't this magazine based in London? If so I think ya boy will be safe from the camps. He's an interesting chap for sure. Just did a quick read of his recent works. Appears he's always been anti ruskie, and claims that China will never be able to take Taiwan....this is an odd one

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The man lives in Peking, you cannot publish anything in foreign media without Xi's approval or face the consequences.

Every Chinese person I've known hates doing business with Russians. Russians NEVER deliver according specs in the agreements. It doesn't matter if its oil, mineral ores, or limestone. One even opted to buy from Libya shortly after Qaddafi was killed rather than buy from Russia.

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Within a few months, we could be supplying and financing 3 conflicts. Ukraine, Israel and possibly Taiwan. At some point, we might actually need some 155mm rounds ourselves.

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When it rains it pours... intentionally, in this case...

The collective West needs to shift to a War time production economy, now, before it is too late.

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Within a few months, we could be supplying and financing 3 conflicts. Ukraine, Israel and possibly Taiwan.

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There is a zero point zero percent chance that China moves on Taiwan in the next several years. (Much less 3 months)

The straights between China and Taiwan are 100 miles wide. And the water is rough. Like normal 6-8 foot seas.

I spent some time reading the war game computer model of what it would take to conquer Taiwan. And it was something like tens of millions of tons of supplies. (A good bit of which was fuel) Plus something like 1.2 million troops.

China doesn't have the boats. It doesn't have the landing craft. It doesn't have the assembly areas., It doesn't have anything like what it would take.

And, imagine assembling all of that tens of thousands of vessels and over 1 million men with all their gear. And doing it along the most densely populated waterfront area in the world. (Basically equivalent to assembling the largest army the world has ever seen along the waterfront in Lower Manhattan).

It would take years to manufacture, and then many many months to assemble and get it organized.

The whole world would know about it for well over a year (It took Putin a year to move 300,000 men and their invasion equipment by train from around Russia to invade Ukraine).

And then send that entire mass on men and material across a 100 mile wide sea, all the while being observed and pummeled by hundreds of combat aircraft (F22, F35) and thousands of drones.

It simply cannot be done.

If China takes Taiwan it will be via a socio, economic, political process. Not by overt armed invasion.

K.

Man that's one wicked looking sub

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His credentials mean that Xi allowed his article to be published. That's not a good look for Russia, especially his concentration on Sino-Russia relations.

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Vladimir Putin is trapped in an information cocoon

This is remarkable.... it is completely true, it is the "Dictator's Dilemma," anybody who delivers bad news falls out of a window... it happens to every despot with no checks in a system.

but Xi has done the same thing to himself by most accounts, surrounding himself only with sycophants (not even really "Yes Man" because they are not even asked anything to reply to...) and in a much, much shorter time frame.

So... many questions about this article...

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So how does that work? If a NATO country attacks a non NATO country, are they still able to draw everyone else in with article 5?

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France didn't join us in Iraq. Germany didnt either.