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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 6/15/23 at 4:54 pm to CitizenK
Posted on 6/15/23 at 4:54 pm to CitizenK
quote:
Though I'm one who was hoping for a thunder run like last fall.
I mean, that is not really fair nor realistic (I do enjoy your posts in general though, you often say stuff that other people are not; not sure what your background is). I am trying to stay very cautiously optimistic, but things seem to be moving along as I would suspect (merely based on common sense and a very rudimentary understanding of the complexities of war - no armed service background). So, whatever that is worth. I definitely grasp that conditions need to be set, and I would imagine that would take time even for our Army. Logistics are a nightmare. Covid taught me that in my industry. One wrong fart, and everything is fricked.
2
Posted on 6/15/23 at 5:11 pm to SwampGar
Rybar claiming that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will launch an imminent push for the village of Robotybe, South of Orikhiv, Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
https://twitter.com/sierra__alpha/status/1669464120578416651?s=46
https://twitter.com/sierra__alpha/status/1669464120578416651?s=46
Posted on 6/15/23 at 5:12 pm to WhereisAtlanta
quote:
Russia would be all in
Other than not using Nukes, tell us how they are not “all in” with this debacle?
Posted on 6/15/23 at 5:14 pm to WhereisAtlanta
Not even close, their troops have no more than basic training and no discipline.
Posted on 6/15/23 at 5:16 pm to SwampGar
I buy and sell chemical plants and refineries. I have worked with Russians/Ukrainians to build modular GTL plants in Southern Caucasus at stranded gas fields to far away from markets to spend the money on pipelines. 2014 Russian fricked all that up for me.
Posted on 6/15/23 at 5:21 pm to CitizenK
Hillary/Obama actions also screwed me out of a refinery deal in Libya. Bay Ltd (you know who and what they are if you know anything about major industrial contracting) was going to do the work for my partner and I.
Posted on 6/15/23 at 5:23 pm to notiger1997
quote:
Other than not using Nukes, tell us how they are not “all in” with this debacle?
When I think “all in” I think of legit all fricking in.
Full on war economy and mobilization. The entire country, every man, woman, and child is an active participant in the war effort.
Russia ain’t close to being “all in” in that regard, but they are certainly “in” at a higher degree than any major world power has been “in” a war since wwii
Posted on 6/15/23 at 5:27 pm to beerJeep
You are correct, they are not ALL IN.
Putin backed himself into a corner by calling this a Special Military Operation and not a war. That prevented the bigger mobilization that they need; however, at this point, I'm not sure any significant mobilization would help them, they don't have the equipment left to kit out 500K troops.
Putin backed himself into a corner by calling this a Special Military Operation and not a war. That prevented the bigger mobilization that they need; however, at this point, I'm not sure any significant mobilization would help them, they don't have the equipment left to kit out 500K troops.
Posted on 6/15/23 at 5:30 pm to beerJeep
Tic toc goes the great old clock on the wall
The hand moves forward as they head to a fall
Even the village fool knows there is only one end
Putin will have to die to cleanse the Russians of all his Sins
Tic toc tic toc
The hand moves forward as they head to a fall
Even the village fool knows there is only one end
Putin will have to die to cleanse the Russians of all his Sins
Tic toc tic toc
Posted on 6/15/23 at 5:31 pm to Hateradedrink
quote:
the thunder run didn’t happen until weeks into it.
For a Thunder Run to happen they need to break through the main defenses in a wide enough area and be able to hold it long-term so they can pour through and spread out. I think they may be able to do that but I don't think they are planning a lightweight Thunder Run, I think they plan to move with heavy units because they have them now and lightweight units with lots of technicals aren't really what you want running around in dug in areas and/or with lots of mines. It worked early but I doubt it works as well now, if at all.
Posted on 6/15/23 at 5:34 pm to beerJeep
Russia doesn't have weapons and supplies from the West like they did in WWII. They were driving Shermans at the end of the war when the met the western allies. These were much more mechanically reliable.
Posted on 6/15/23 at 5:39 pm to Obtuse1
quote:
For a Thunder Run to happen they need to break through the main defenses in a wide enough area and be able to hold it long-term so they can pour through and spread out.
They may yet, but in all seriousness, they've had minimal training, albeit more than the typical Russian has. The point is that no one should expect a Desert Storm or Iraqi Freedom, though deep inside I was certainly hoping for some semblance. I do believe that a breakthrough will demoralize Russia's forces. Only backup firing squads might keep them from running for the coast.
Posted on 6/15/23 at 5:53 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
I'm not sure any significant mobilization would help them, they don't have the equipment left to kit out 500K troops.
That and they have a big problem with finding people to do critical work, especially technical (per WSJ article today). The combination of the last round of conscription and Russians fleeing the country has really crimped their production. A large mobilization would compound this.
Posted on 6/15/23 at 5:55 pm to CitizenK
quote:
Russia doesn't have weapons and supplies from the West like they did in WWII. They were driving Shermans at the end of the war when the met the western allies. These were much more mechanically reliable.
I’m aware?
I was simply stating that Russia isn’t “all in” and said what I consider “all in” to be.
Posted on 6/15/23 at 6:06 pm to beerJeep
quote:
I was simply stating that Russia isn’t “all in” and said what I consider “all in” to be.
And the fact that Russia isn't "all in" is what infuriates people like Girkin. They see Russia losing a war because Putin never took it seriously enough.
If Russia had been "all in" from the beginning of the war, declaring martial law, doing a large mobilization right away, and massively increasing defense production, then Russia would have won this war.
Posted on 6/15/23 at 6:08 pm to CitizenK
Ukraine has the will to fight. They suffered horribly at the hands of Moscow with the living memories of families.
Posted on 6/15/23 at 6:10 pm to GOP_Tiger
The problem is optics.
Russia would rather lose and say “we didn’t really try lol” than go all-in and be told “lol you had to go all-in to beat Ukraine”
Russia would rather lose and say “we didn’t really try lol” than go all-in and be told “lol you had to go all-in to beat Ukraine”
This post was edited on 6/15/23 at 6:11 pm
Posted on 6/15/23 at 6:10 pm to Auburn1968
No doubt about that being the case, the will to fight and win. Mechanical expertise is already there, that is not the weak point.
Posted on 6/15/23 at 6:12 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
Putin backed himself into a corner by calling this a Special Military Operation and not a war. That prevented the bigger mobilization that they need; however, at this point, I'm not sure any significant mobilization would help them, they don't have the equipment left to kit out 500K troops.
Russia still has thousands of old T-62s, T-64s, T-72s and BPM1s, BRDMs etc they could pull from storage. They could probably put together an old Soviet style “Tank Army” like they had in West Germany during the Cold War.
But it wouldn’t do them any good because there is no way their logistics system could hope to support it.
Russia did not learn the lessons from WWII they should have learned. They think they won by churning out tens of thousands of tanks, artillery pieces, and assault guns. But they never really realized what it takes from a logistics standpoint to maintain such a force because it was the US giving them most of the logistics to keep the Red Army fighting in WWII. Maybe they’ll learn the importance of logistics from this war.
But I wouldn’t bet on it.
This post was edited on 6/15/23 at 6:13 pm
Posted on 6/15/23 at 6:14 pm to CitizenK
quote:
I buy and sell chemical plants and refineries. I have worked with Russians/Ukrainians to build modular GTL plants in Southern Caucasus at stranded gas fields to far away from markets to spend the money on pipelines. 2014 Russian fricked all that up for me.
Ah yes, that does ring a bit of a bell. Well, you provide a unique perspective. Some of that may be a bit different than some of the other content posters produce, but the more backgrounds and perspectives (legit non troll ones) are much appreciated in a thread like this. Keep em' coming. We are reading them.
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