re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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During the campaign, Zelensky gave few interviews, held no campaign rallies, and did not lay out positions in any detail, instead letting his television persona define his image.

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Rigged.

This sounds about right. I said the other day to make a real difference in the air against Russia’s superior numbers of aircraft that Ukraine would need 4-5 squadrons which would be 48-60 planes.. will they get that many? Who knows for sure. My guess is without the U.S. being one of those that donate a squadron or two either from Air National Guard stocks or even bringing some out of the boneyard at Davis-Monthan AFB and returning them to active service which would not be a big deal at all for f-16s that were recently sent there. I’m just not sure Biden is going to risk upsetting his daddy Xi in China by directly giving Ukraine fighters. Without the U.S. giving some I think you’re looking at maybe 3 squadrons (36 planes) being given from NATO countries besides the USA. The other thing to consider is what variant will they get? Will there be a mix of A/B or C/D (1 seater/2seater)? What block will they get? Different blocks have different engines, avionics, fire controls, etc…… An early block 15 is a pretty big difference from a block 50/52. All these things have to be considered before hand because it matters in the pilot’s training what type they will be flying and what capabilities that variant has. There’s a lot of moving parts and it will take time to get it all worked out. Until then Ukraine has to make do with their Mig-29s and Su-27s of which no one really knows how many of the Su-27s they have left.

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I doubt the RU spearhead could make it past the throngs of Bakhmut citizenry welcoming their emancipators.

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aka Icon Kissers

Dudes a moron.

Christianity is all but dead in the former Soviet block countries…. 50+ years of state oppression killed it and it’s never coming back.

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Dudes a moron.

Christianity is all but dead in the former Soviet block countries…. 50+ years of state oppression killed it and it’s never coming back.

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Churches are full in Poland on Sundays

Russia has under 10% who ever walk through the doors of a church, any church.

Ukraine has the same rate of regular church attendance as in the USA, around 25%

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During the campaign, Zelensky gave few interviews, held no campaign rallies, and did not lay out positions in any detail, instead letting his television persona define his image.


Rigged.

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While your quote is technically correct it's not the whole story

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Zelenskyy's presidential campaign against Poroshenko was almost entirely virtual.[56][57] He did not release a detailed policy platform[58] and his engagement with mainstream media was minimal;[56][d] he instead reached out to the electorate via social media channels and YouTube clips.[56] In place of traditional campaign rallies, he conducted stand-up comedy routines across Ukraine with his production company Kvartal 95.[60][61] He styled himself as an anti-establishment, anti-corruption figure, although he was not generally described as a populist.[58] He said he wished to restore trust in politicians, "to bring professional, decent people to power" and to "change the mood and timbre of the political establishment".[50][51][62] On 16 April 2019, a few days before the election, 20 Ukrainian news outlets called on Zelenskyy to "stop avoiding journalists".[56] Zelenskyy stated that he was not hiding from journalists but that he did not want to go to talk shows where "people of the old power" were "just doing PR" and that he did not have time to satisfy all interview requests.[63]

Prior to the elections, Zelenskyy presented a team that included former finance minister Oleksandr Danylyuk and others.[64][59] During the campaign, concerns were raised over his links to the oligarch Ihor Kolomoyskyi,[65] a billionaire businessman who had gained control of the 1+1 Media Group in 2010. The group operates eight Ukrainian TV channels and broadcast the Servant of the People TV series from 2015 until 2019, featuring Zelenskyy in a comedian role as a national president.

President Poroshenko and his supporters claimed that Zelenskyy's victory would benefit Russia.[66][67][68][69] On 19 April 2019 at Olimpiyskiy National Sports Complex presidential debates were held in the form of a show.[70][71][72] In his introductory speech, Zelenskyy acknowledged that in 2014 he voted for Poroshenko, but "I was mistaken. We were mistaken. We voted for one Poroshenko, but received another. The first appears when there are video cameras, the other Petro sends Medvedchuk privietiki (greetings) to Moscow".[70] Although Zelenskyy initially said he would only serve a single term, he walked back this promise in May 2021, saying he had not yet made up his mind.[73]

Zelenskyy stated that as president he would develop the economy and attract investment to Ukraine through "a restart of the judicial system" and restoring confidence in the state.[74] He also proposed a tax amnesty and a 5 per cent flat tax for big business which could be increased "in dialogue with them and if everyone agrees".[74] According to Zelenskyy, if people would notice that his new government "works honestly from the first day", they would start paying their taxes.[74]

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LINK

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f-16s


I haven't paid much attention to this because it never seemed like Ukraine would get them and being a ground pounder all I know about war planes is "if it flies it dies".

Is it fair to say the question of their usefulness is mainly wrapped up in what munitions are supplied and has there been any discussion about that? Also how effective can they actually be in the current airspace over Ukraine.

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I thought that Brynn Tannehill had an outstanding thread on Twitter. It's 31 tweets, so I recommend the whole thing: LINK

She knows what she's talking about -- she points out that she used to work for the Air Force on their sims to train F-16 pilots in air-to-air combat.

The planes that our European partners largely have available to give to Ukraine are older A/B F-16s that also got a mid-life update. There are about 60 of them that are in storage and could easily be sent.

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The big things to take away that are important to further discussion at that they're AIM-120 AMRAAM, JASSM, and LINK-16 capable. They also use the AN/APG66V2A radar, which is close to obsolescent (Pulse Doppler, not phased array, PESA, or AESA like modern radars).

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However, I would caution that electronic parts for elderly aircraft like these F-16 MLUs are hard to come by, as they've been out of production for a decade+. If they break, and you run out of spares, you're going to have to micro-manufacture it in a workshop.

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Munitions: Who is going to provide what? AIM-120s are $1.2M a copy. The 2023 NDAA didn't allocate any $$ for HARM. Is the US willing to provide early model JASSM? Thankfully, the F-16 Block 20 doesn't need mods to employ them, but it is a challenge. 9/n

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Financing: Where will the money for operation and sustainment come from? Operating these aircraft is likely to be more expensive than older MiG-29s, Su-24s, and Su-27s in Ukrainian inventory. This has to be budgeted for, w/legal authority. Surmountable, but a consideration.

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While we paid a price for this thinking in Vietnam, radars and missiles (and the situation) have evolved such that in Ukraine air-to-air combat has played out as BVR only, and the Russians are consistently winning fights with bigger better radars and longer range missiles.

The F-16 MLU doesn't change this equation. It's small, antique APG-66 radar can't see as far as bigger, more modern Russian radars on the MiGs and Sukhois. The R-37 has a significantly longer range than the AIM-120C. And it (potentially) gets worse.

Russia has A-50 AEW&C aircraft for long range detection, targeting and cuing. Ukraine doesn't have an equivalent. If they did, it might allow Ukraine to fire AIM-120s at data-linked targets without turning on their APG-66 radars, mitigating radar counter-detection.

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I do not believe that giving Ukraine F-16s is sufficient to allow them to achieve even temporary, local air superiority with pulsed ops. However, I do see several potential tactical advantages over the current situation. They aren't useless.

1. First is that the combination of Patriot's modern radar, plus data link of targets, will increase survivability of the F-16s, and improve lethality against targets such as cruise missiles, improving Ukrainian defenses against attack.

2. Somewhat improved long term sustainability. As hard as it is to obtain F-16s parts and technical expertise from the manufacturer, it's still easier than obtaining it for Russian made MiG-29s and Su-27s.

3. It continues the work of integrating Ukrainian equipment, tactics, doctrine, and data sharing with NATO standard systems. If there is to be long term security for Ukraine, I believe NATO membership is a must. One of the requirements for joining is compatibility.

4. Most important, to my mind, is it facilitates Ukraine obtaining and using the AGM-158 Joint Air to Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM). Broadly similar to the StormShadow, JASSM would provide additional long range strike capability against difficult targets.

It would also facilitate use of the LRASM missile, which is basically JASSM but for anti-shipping work. Even a relatively small number of either of these could dramatically shift the balance of power in the Black Sea (particularly LRASM).

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I have to admit that I was unaware of the impact that Patriot's radar could have aiding F-16s flying in Ukraine. That data link certainly helps.

I'm sure that LSU_Pilot can tell us more.

It is reported the downing of an enemy aircraft Su-35 over the Black Sea.

Twitter

How much more do we need to send in order to "win" this war?