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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 2/27/23 at 6:21 am to RLDSC FAN
Posted on 2/27/23 at 6:21 am to RLDSC FAN
British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 27 Februrary 2023
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
Since 21 February 2023, pro-Russian officials have reported at least 14 explosions around the Russian-occupied city of Mariupol.
Sites of the incidents have included an ammo cache at the airport, two fuel depots, and a steel works that Russia uses as a military base. Mariupol lies at least 80km away from the front line.
Russia will likely be concerned that unexplained explosions are occurring in a zone it had probably previously assessed as beyond the range of routine Ukrainian strike capabilities. Although widely devasted earlier in the war, Mariupol is important to Russia because it is the largest city Russia captured in 2022 that it still controls, and sits on a key logistics route.
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 27 Februrary 2023
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
Since 21 February 2023, pro-Russian officials have reported at least 14 explosions around the Russian-occupied city of Mariupol.
Sites of the incidents have included an ammo cache at the airport, two fuel depots, and a steel works that Russia uses as a military base. Mariupol lies at least 80km away from the front line.
Russia will likely be concerned that unexplained explosions are occurring in a zone it had probably previously assessed as beyond the range of routine Ukrainian strike capabilities. Although widely devasted earlier in the war, Mariupol is important to Russia because it is the largest city Russia captured in 2022 that it still controls, and sits on a key logistics route.
1
Posted on 2/27/23 at 6:34 am to cypher
quote:
Since 21 February 2023, pro-Russian officials have reported at least 14 explosions around the Russian-occupied city of Mariupol.
At first, people were speculating that Ukraine had already obtained GLSDB or some other longer-distance strike capability.
But there now seems to be a consensus that Ukraine likely just pushed a HIMARS unit right up to the front line near Vuhledar (they normally stay several miles behind the lines, to keep them safe) and used it to for these strikes.
Ukraine is getting more HIMARS units, so perhaps they are now willing to risk them a bit more.
Posted on 2/27/23 at 7:13 am to northshorebamaman
quote:
Good points but if I've learned anything about Russians in the past year it's that it's pretty much impossible to underestimate them.
Did you mean impossible to overestimate their ability in this 3 day war?
Posted on 2/27/23 at 7:18 am to SoFla Tideroller
quote:
What's your fricking point? They're not in charge of the Soviet Union any longer. They are a fraction of the threat the USSR was. They are no existential threat to the US. As they have so comically demonstrated in the last year, they barely rise to the level of a regional threat. I don't give a shite what they were thirty years ago before they lost half their population (literally). Quit trying to justify American involvement in a regional conflict by invoking use-to-bes. The USSR in 1990 had 287 million people. Russia today has 143. Are you seriously trying to say that Russia is the same military threat because Vlad and his cronies used to be something in the USSR???
Putin is the same guy he was as a KGB agent in East Germany. He's the same guy he was as Deputy Mayor of St. Petersburg when he syphoned off the money meant to buy food for women and children.
Of course Russia is not the same since Ukraine was the first to legally declare independence then a number of other Soviet Republics followed its lead. Russia lost 40% of its industrial capacity as well as its brain power just by that first split off.
This is why Putin wants Ukraine back into the fold and calls it Russia's historical lands. Tell Pooting that Russia is actually a splinter off of Kievan Rus. However Russia maintained its Mongol mentality long since the Mongols collapsed.
Posted on 2/27/23 at 8:06 am to CitizenK
quote:
Putin is the same guy he was as a KGB agent in East Germany. He's the same guy he was as Deputy Mayor of St. Petersburg when he syphoned off the money meant to buy food for women and children.
Of course Russia is not the same since Ukraine was the first to legally declare independence then a number of other Soviet Republics followed its lead. Russia lost 40% of its industrial capacity as well as its brain power just by that first split off.
So basically Putin is the same but with way less power and abilities.
Posted on 2/27/23 at 8:24 am to SOSFAN
Whole lotta revisionist history going on right now with regards to Russian military capabilities.
Russia has been shown to be a paper tiger BECAUSE of Ukrainian resolve and western military aid…. The perception was completely different 12-1/2 months ago.
Russia has been shown to be a paper tiger BECAUSE of Ukrainian resolve and western military aid…. The perception was completely different 12-1/2 months ago.
Posted on 2/27/23 at 8:51 am to lowspark12
Ukraine seems to have restabilized the situation in Bakhmut again, at least temporarily. Here's WarGonzo (Russian) saying that Ukraine has counterattacked SW of the city (and I've seen Ukrainian sources saying similar) and pushed Russian troops back there. And I'm reading other reports that Ukraine is firmly in control of the northern city limits for the time being.
So, I think Ukraine is likely going to try to hold Bakhmut another week or two. They say that they are still killing Russians at above a 3:1 ratio, so it's in their best interest to continue to fight in the city. It makes me nervous, though.
So, I think Ukraine is likely going to try to hold Bakhmut another week or two. They say that they are still killing Russians at above a 3:1 ratio, so it's in their best interest to continue to fight in the city. It makes me nervous, though.
Posted on 2/27/23 at 9:24 am to GOP_Tiger
Is it possible they’re trying to hold out to time with counter offensive and new equipment so that when they finally do fall back it’s actually goading the Russians into moving right into the counter attack before their logistics can catch up?
Posted on 2/27/23 at 9:34 am to DabosDynasty
I wondered the same thing...
Posted on 2/27/23 at 9:38 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Mud season hit Ukraine yesterday, all at once
How does one operate in trenches in mud season? Seems to me they'd just fill up with water—do they plan for drainage to try to carry all that away from the trench system?
Posted on 2/27/23 at 9:43 am to TitusCrow
quote:
@WarMonitors · 4m ??#BREAKING Ukrainian troops have concentrated forces near the border with Transnistria — press secretary of the Ukrainian Defense Forces "South" Natalia Gumenyuk.
Why announce that IDK.
Posted on 2/27/23 at 9:44 am to DabosDynasty
One of the most stunning success stories of Ukrainian society during the war has been the performance of its train system. With all the airspace above Ukraine closed and no one able to fly in our out, and with millions of refugees who've left the country (but with many of them returning and others leaving), the demands on the train system have been extraordinary, but Alexander Kamyshin has done an incredible job leading Ukrzaliznytsia.
Kamyshin just posted this yesterday:
When Kherson was liberated, he had trains running there in just eight days, after workers tirelessly struggled to demine track routes to the city and restore damaged tracks. LINK
When foreign leaders such as President Biden travel Kyiv, he's quickly worked to get special trains ready. He's constantly opened new foreign routes, such as reestablishing the route to Chisinau and opening another route into Romania. His work has also been critical in enabling the logistics of the Ukrainian military.
Anyway, he just announced that he's resigning to move to the EU and open a new office to integrate the Ukrainian train system with the EU.
Anyway, this might seem like a minor note to some people, but those in the know are aware that Kamyshin is one of Ukraine's great heroes of this war.
Kamyshin just posted this yesterday:
When Kherson was liberated, he had trains running there in just eight days, after workers tirelessly struggled to demine track routes to the city and restore damaged tracks. LINK
When foreign leaders such as President Biden travel Kyiv, he's quickly worked to get special trains ready. He's constantly opened new foreign routes, such as reestablishing the route to Chisinau and opening another route into Romania. His work has also been critical in enabling the logistics of the Ukrainian military.
Anyway, he just announced that he's resigning to move to the EU and open a new office to integrate the Ukrainian train system with the EU.
Anyway, this might seem like a minor note to some people, but those in the know are aware that Kamyshin is one of Ukraine's great heroes of this war.
Posted on 2/27/23 at 9:49 am to Burhead
quote:
Why announce that IDK.
Bc it shows the world you’re not trying to hide anything… unlike Russia when it invaded 12 months ago.
Posted on 2/27/23 at 9:53 am to TitusCrow
quote:
How does one operate in trenches in mud season? Seems to me they'd just fill up with water
What Russians will do is simply get trench foot. If you case gets back enough, you can go to a hospital and not get sent on a banzai charge that gets you killed.
No, in all seriousness, a lot of guys on both sides are about to figure out very quickly that they need new boots.
Posted on 2/27/23 at 10:02 am to Burhead
quote:Give Russia another front to think about . Caution against those Russian " peacekeepers" perhaps planning to destabilize the Moldovan government.
@WarMonitors · 4m ??#BREAKING Ukrainian troops have concentrated forces near the border with Transnistria — press secretary of the Ukrainian Defense Forces "South" Natalia Gumenyuk.
Why announce that IDK.
Ever since the Biden Administration brilliantly released verifiable intelligence about the Russian invasion I feel openly releasing info ( not conspiracies) can be a great strategy.
Posted on 2/27/23 at 10:08 am to sugar71
quote:
Give Russia another front to think about . Caution against those Russian " peacekeepers" perhaps planning to destabilize the Moldovan government.
Ever since the Biden Administration brilliantly released verifiable intelligence about the Russian invasion I feel openly releasing info ( not conspiracies) can be a great strategy.
Just seems like they're playing into the Kremlin propaganda about Kyiv launching an invasion
Posted on 2/27/23 at 10:55 am to Burhead
quote:
@WarMonitors ??"Wizz Air" suspends all flights to and from Moldova from March 14.
I have to see if I can find it again but I remember reading Girkin said the Transnistria issue would be resolved by March.
Posted on 2/27/23 at 11:04 am to sugar71
quote:If anything it’s the other way around
Give Russia another front to think about . Caution against those Russian " peacekeepers" perhaps planning to destabilize the Moldovan government.
Posted on 2/27/23 at 11:56 am to GeauxxxTigers23
Whizz Air is Hungarian, wonder if Putin told his buddy Orban about something?
quote:
"As a result of recent developments in Moldova and the high, but not imminent, risk in the country's airspace, Wizz Air has taken the difficult but responsible decision to suspend all flights to Chisinau starting on March 14" - Statement
Posted on 2/27/23 at 12:02 pm to Burhead
quote:
Just seems like they're playing into the Kremlin propaganda about Kyiv launching an invasion
Is not doing this gonna magically stop the Russian propaganda?
Russia is gonna spread disinformation and misinformation to feed their narratives regardless fo what you do.
Hell, Putin came to power reportedly through a false flag bombing of his own country. They aren't above outright terrorizing their own citizenry to fabricate their messages.
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