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Started By
Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 2/26/23 at 5:14 pm to GOP_Tiger
Posted on 2/26/23 at 5:14 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
quote:
Belarusian partisans say they conducted a successful sabotage operation and damaged a Russian military A-50 control aircraft at Machulishchy military airfield this morning.
LINK
That would certainly be a different situation from Ukraine bombing Belarus.
How crazy would it be if Russias invasion of Ukraine led to a Civil war in Belarus. I know it's not likely but yeah
2
Posted on 2/26/23 at 5:24 pm to Obtuse1
UK and EU leeches need to quadruple spending for 2 decades to make up for 4 decades letting USA pay for their security.
Posted on 2/26/23 at 6:21 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Belarusian partisans say they conducted a successful sabotage operation and damaged a Russian military A-50 control aircraft at Machulishchy military airfield this morning.
If the A-50 was really taken out of commission, then it's the 2nd-largest loss Russia has suffered in the war.
Posted on 2/26/23 at 6:49 pm to GOP_Tiger
Wow!
Posted on 2/26/23 at 6:55 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
How crazy would it be if Russias invasion of Ukraine led to a Civil war in Belarus. I know it's not likely but yeah
Why Luka has sent no troops to join with Russian invasion. Those troops keep him in power to put down internal upheavals
Posted on 2/26/23 at 7:54 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
How crazy would it be if Russias invasion of Ukraine led to a Civil war in Belarus. I know it's not likely but yeah
I don’t think it’s crazy. Lukashenko doesn’t last without a Putin in power, and like doesn’t last without a robust Putin that projects real strength and influence abroad.
Maybe Putin survives this, but his and Russia’s stature is going to be greatly diminished. If I was betting, Lukashenko is not in power in 5 years and the transfer of power will not be seamless in Belarus.
Posted on 2/26/23 at 8:18 pm to ned nederlander
quote:
I don’t think it’s crazy. Lukashenko doesn’t last without a Putin in power, and like doesn’t last without a robust Putin that projects real strength and influence abroad.
Maybe Putin survives this, but his and Russia’s stature is going to be greatly diminished. If I was betting, Lukashenko is not in power in 5 years and the transfer of power will not be seamless in Belarus.
We may hate this fact, but Vladimir Putin is a genuinely popular dictator in Russia.
Lukashenko is nothing of the kind. He's an unpopular dictator, and his involving Belarus in this war on the side of Russia is hugely unpopular. And, yes, if Russia loses (and especially if Putin is thrown out of power), Lukashenko will face a popular revolt or coup.
And, yes, we've talked about "Belarussian partisans" conducting this attack. With a moment's reflection, however, you realize that the distance between "Belarussian partisans" and "Ukrainian SOF" is actually zero -- they are effectively the same thing.
Posted on 2/26/23 at 8:20 pm to Chromdome35
I am not so sure this is a war Russia can ever win but if they do I suggest you adjust your life expectancy as it will likely lead to WW3. I would recommend a complete and total tactical nuclear strike against them and China before that, at least some people will survive.
I think it’s significantly wore likely that this drags on for many years until Putin is killed or dies.
I think it’s significantly wore likely that this drags on for many years until Putin is killed or dies.
Posted on 2/26/23 at 8:22 pm to CitizenK
20k in their entire military? Or just their army.
Wikipedia had ~45k with ~16500 in ground forces - these are estimates from 2016, 2017.
The "armedforces.eu" website estimates 62000 personnel.
CIA worldbook estimates "approximately 45,000 active duty troops; information on the individual services varies, but reportedly includes about 25,000 Army, 15,000 Air/Air Defense, and 5,000 Special Operations forces (2022)"
and where does your 10k Belarus fighters for Ukraine come from? A quick search yielded a number of articles on Belarus volunteers but couldn't find a total estimate.
Wikipedia had ~45k with ~16500 in ground forces - these are estimates from 2016, 2017.
The "armedforces.eu" website estimates 62000 personnel.
CIA worldbook estimates "approximately 45,000 active duty troops; information on the individual services varies, but reportedly includes about 25,000 Army, 15,000 Air/Air Defense, and 5,000 Special Operations forces (2022)"
and where does your 10k Belarus fighters for Ukraine come from? A quick search yielded a number of articles on Belarus volunteers but couldn't find a total estimate.
Posted on 2/26/23 at 8:49 pm to TigersnJeeps
I'm fairly certain the 20k ref was to ground forces.
Posted on 2/26/23 at 8:53 pm to TigersnJeeps
This photoshop is going around again on social media, and people are still pretending that it's real.
As a reminder, this is the real photo taken at the NYC Gay Pride Parade in 2006, before Zelensky and Arestovich were photoshopped into it:
As a reminder, this is the real photo taken at the NYC Gay Pride Parade in 2006, before Zelensky and Arestovich were photoshopped into it:
Posted on 2/26/23 at 9:17 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
This photoshop is going around again on social media, and people are still pretending that it's real.
I’ve noticed a big social media effort the last 36-48 hours at shaming and discrediting Zelensky. I’ve seen a lot of the verified accounts of the same folks that say it’s just laundering or is fake sharing a video of Zelensky in some performance playing guitar to discredit his ability and worthiness to lead Ukraine.
Posted on 2/26/23 at 9:19 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
This is very interesting and the first real evidence I have seen that Russia is starting to adapt.
Somewhere deep in the bowels of this thread, I posted a link to a long treatise on Russian military doctrine written prior to the war. It really wasn't that wildly different from Western doctrine. Without going back and finding the link and comparing it my guess is they have just reinvented the wheel and potentially actually attempting to put it into practice which they clearly were not trained to do for this war.
I am not saying they can't accomplish it however it takes a long time to train a good soldier. It takes months to get them up to speed and then they still need to go into a unit with quality professional soldiers to make the transition from classroom/field training to actually being a functional member of a fighting unit. Take a platoon of soldiers straight from AIT and put an officer just out of IOBC in charge and they are going to be a clusterfrick. The E4s, E5s, and the E6 are going to finish the "real" training of the new enlisted, and the E6, XO, and company commander are going to train the O1. This may take a lot longer to turn around tactically than it appears.
Posted on 2/26/23 at 9:51 pm to Obtuse1
quote:
Somewhere deep in the bowels of this thread, I posted a link to a long treatise on Russian military doctrine written prior to the war. It really wasn't that wildly different from Western doctrine
Yeah, that Tatarigami twitter thread is getting lots of commentary, but it's about a new Russian manual. What we have seen throughout this war is that the Russians absolutely do not follow Russian military doctrine.
Anyone can write a new manual, but it doesn't matter if no one is going to follow it.
Color me unimpressed.
Posted on 2/26/23 at 10:27 pm to Chromdome35
quote:Good points but if I've learned anything about Russians in the past year it's that it's pretty much impossible to underestimate them.
That they show signs of change is important, regardless of their ability to implement it at this time. This won't save them in this war if it ends in 2023. If this war goes beyond this year, I fear Ukraine will lose. Russia will get its act together eventually. Ukraine has to win before that happens.
Posted on 2/26/23 at 11:42 pm to Chromdome35
Taking out one of their AWACS aircraft is a very big deal. Not a lot of them to begin with. I’d be surprised if Russia has 25 operational AWACS in their entire fleet.
Posted on 2/27/23 at 3:12 am to LSUPilot07
Good video rundown on the Russian AWACs loss. Video author is a Ukrainian commercial pilot and states that the Russians had nine A-50's prior to the loss of this one. Starts at 3:11.
Posted on 2/27/23 at 3:20 am to Lakeboy7
quote:
Putin and his inner circle are frickING Soviets. They changed the letterhead on the criminal operation but they would tell you if you asked they are Soviets. Born, bred, trained and will die Soviets.
What's your fricking point? They're not in charge of the Soviet Union any longer. They are a fraction of the threat the USSR was. They are no existential threat to the US. As they have so comically demonstrated in the last year, they barely rise to the level of a regional threat. I don't give a shite what they were thirty years ago before they lost half their population (literally). Quit trying to justify American involvement in a regional conflict by invoking use-to-bes. The USSR in 1990 had 287 million people. Russia today has 143. Are you seriously trying to say that Russia is the same military threat because Vlad and his cronies used to be something in the USSR???
If Tom Osborne took the job at Nebraska tomorrow, he ain't winning a natty just because the Huskers won in 1995.
Posted on 2/27/23 at 4:57 am to SoFla Tideroller
quote:
Are you seriously trying to say that Russia is the same military threat because Vlad and his cronies used to be something in the USSR???
They still have the same 5000 nuclear weapons aimed at the United States, that's for sure.
Posted on 2/27/23 at 5:05 am to GOP_Tiger
Mud season hit Ukraine yesterday, all at once, because it rained several inches, which melted the snow and the ground surface.
Look at this Twitter video.
Look at this Twitter video.
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