re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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What are you talking about?

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Your unsubstantiated claims (lies at this point).

I asked for links to support your claim (twice).

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The more aggressive pundits on Fox News and other right wing media came out in direct support of Russia.

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This is the third time. Produce the goods.

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That appears to be right on the money.

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I am going to copy and paste the thread since I think it is so salient to the war assistance issue. I would also like to amplify the fact much of the material we sent was far from SOTA. An example of this was the M113s. From a financial POV we would have been better off years ago pulling off the M2 and putting them on the street outside the base with signs that read "Free to good home".

Further, a significant portion of the value of the itemized aid is for intelligence help. Make no mistake we would have spent every dollar of that gathering intel on this war because it is such a rare opportunity to evaluate and scrutinize a near pear in major military operations. By near peer, I mean near peer to the Rhode Island National Guard.


Thread follows:

To the Republicans complaining about the billions the US is sending to Ukraine

I’m going to share with a private opinion from a knowledgeable European official I know

Basically, he starts off smiling and saying the US are “absolutely ruthless” with regard to the Ukraine war

I reponded that America is footing most of the bill for this

He laughed, hard

He said: win, lose or draw, the Americans win

Main points
-“Money” being sent to Ukraine is mostly in form of arms/weapons
-They’re sent via “lend-lease” meaning Ukraine will have to pay it back

-It wasn’t until after Ukraine showed that it would not be occupied by Russia, that the US committed big budgets and armaments
-After the war, the EU will be on the hook for rebuilding Ukraine, integrating them into the union and thus helping pay back the US lend-lease arms

-The US is passing off older, strategically obsolete weapons which would eventually be replaced (HIMARS)
-The US didn’t part with any of their most effective and technologically advanced systems (helicopers, planes)
-NATO is strengthened under US leadership

-America will achieve all its strategic objectives on the cheap
-Europe will need to invest in their military which will mean big business for the US
-Russian armaments have been exposed as inferior so Russia will lose global marketshare to the US military industry

-Europe is essentially decoupled from the Russian energy tit, creating a huge opportunity for US LNG
-Europe falls completely out of Russian influence
-The Russian military is grounded down by Ukraine with no American soldiers dying
-Russia finished as a threat to US influence

-The US can now focus all military attention towards containing China
-This is also a wakeup call for EU to take China seriously as a military adversary
-EU-China relations have been set back decades in terms of cooperation

-The days of the US having to twist the EU’s arm to not let Huawei build their 5G system are over
-China’s slow moving influence campaign into Europe is essentially done
-China now needs to think much harder about invading Taiwan…both militarily and strategically (sanctions)

The conclusion was that whatever the actual costs to the US, it’s peanuts compared to the accomplishment of these strategic objectives which will be reaping dividends for years to come

Ultimately the EU will shoulder most of the suffering while the US reaps the benefits

Some people are asking me for proof…it’s an analysis…and it’s by someone else

You can fact check the lend-lease aspect but even if it’s not repaid it doesn’t change the main point

Twitter link again

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Interesting Twitter thread that echos what many of us have been saying since the first few pages of the thread: Twitter

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I am a registered Independent and that is twitter thread is right on the money. Just then uncoupling of Europe from Russian natural gas and opening up the market to US LNG will create enough jobs in the USA and swing the USA-EU trade balance enough to make the investment worth it. With Russia weakened for the foreseeable future the USA can turn its attention back to containing China. Also China is much less likely to be a bad actor after it has seen how poorly the equipment and tactics that Russia uses have faired against western equipment and an army trained by the west. China uses the same military structure, tactics, and equipment based off Russian technology so it’s probably rethinking its plans. Especially since Ukraine has not been given western aircraft or naval equivalent. If 30-40 year old Mig29s and Su27s equipped with older generation HARM missiles can knock out the Russian air defense systems in less than a month, what can F18s, F15s, and F35s (which the USA and all of our pacific allies have) armed with more advanced weapons do to their air defenses?

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“Why the public messaging around Kherson? I’ll be honest with you, I don’t know, but this is something that is driving me crazy,” said Konrad Muzyka, a military analyst and director of Rochan Consulting, which tracks the war.

“Frankly, from a military point of view, absolutely it does not make sense, because if you are a Ukrainian military commander you would much rather fight, let’s say, the seven Russian battalion tactical groups that were in northern Kherson a month ago, not the 15 or 20 there now,” Muzyka added”

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Unless that isn't Ukraine's plan...

Ukraine signals southern offensive, puts enough pressure on the lines to move them some, takes out all the logistic choke points...Russia responds and moves troops down.

Ukraine capitalizes on this and takes back Kharkiv Oblast, Russia starts to move troops back. Ukraine then launches another offensive from the middle region aimed at Melitopol and Maripol. Ukraine takes both and sever's the land bridge to Crimea. Ukraine then takes out the Kerch bridge effectively blockading Crimea.

Ukraine then starts attriting all the troops south of Kherson and in Crimea that are cut off from resupply.

They don't have to take on the 15 to 20 BTG's in the Kherson area, they just need to keep as many of them there as they can until they can cut the road behind them.

The only American who would be excited by any of that is a psychopath.

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As noted above...it was going to happen.

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Prior to Russia’s invasion, Ukraine was never going to be admitted into NATO. They were rejected 3 times in 15 years. Putin just used Ukraine’s applying for NATO as an excuse. Russia never admits that Ukraine was rejected and just lies to its people and the world.

Since neither of us can know “what would have happened,” we will agree to disagree.

Peace.

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Prior to Russia’s invasion, Ukraine was never going to be admitted into NATO.

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You know, if there is a silver lining for Putin in all this, NATO just might really be obsolete when the fall out from this is done and settled.

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The only American who would be excited by any of that is a psychopath.

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Well, put my picture on the DSM-5 section 301.7 Antisocial personality disorder because not only do I agree with all of it I said a lot of it early in the thread.

I do wish you would expound since I do not see anything psychopathic about it, Machiavellian maybe.