re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

In my opinion this whole thing is a tragedy that could have been avoided if not for the stupid and venal governments of all those involved.

I find the stupid idealistic arguments about US involvement in this preferable to the venal.

But I remember when there was an argument that the war in Iraq would also bring a windfall in profits. Well it did for some, but not for most to include Americans.

Reading about the US arms industry or LNG producers making a buck from this is sickening.

Was this in 2014 when Obama started the Civil war?

Getting back to the actual war. I just spoke with one of my sauce(s) in Ukraine. Unfortunately my sauce has been redeployed from the Kherson front to the Kharkiv offensive and is now in Kupyansk. However, my sauce had spoken to colleagues still in Kherson and was able to provide some clarification regarding what is going on in the Kherson oblast.

1. The Ukrainians have broken through in the northwest part of the front. They have not yet reached Nova Kokhva and the Dnieper River yet but they are driving towards it.

2. The Russians have fallen back on all aspects of the front there. The last ferry was knocked out of operation yesterday, but it was not sunk like the others. The Russians may be able to repair it, but for the moment 15,000 - 20,000 Russian soldiers are cut off from their GLOC.

3. There was a 12 hour limited cease-fire on the front on Saturday night. Some Russian officers did reach out to Ukraine about surrendering Kherson. Some of Russia's best units have been deployed to the city and the front and they were not willing to allow the city or the troops to be surrendered unconditionally. However, they were willing to evacuate the city if Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire long enough to allow them to rebuild their pontoon bridges and leave the city with their troops, their wounded, and all of their equipment. Ukraine ultimately rejected this proposal and the fighting has resumed.

I know it is not ground breaking information or anything but it does provide some clarity to the rumors that were circulating on twitter and that I posted here earlier today.

Trump began supplying lethal aid to Ukraine but it was far too little and too late.

Do you know how LNG pricing works? It is obvious that you have no clue as to how it works.

Companies pay a set fee per 1MM BTU for the "LNG" company to liquify the natural gas then load it onto ship. The rest is whatever the Henry Hub price is.

No doubt that all those indie companies punch holes into the ground are happy with the prices due demand

Is tonight the night that people respond to me without reading what I was responding to?

The post I responded to made a justification for support by Republicans of the war in Ukraine in terms of economic gain amongst other factors, to include a benefit to US LNG producers. I called out the morality of such a claim, not the actual reality of it, or the mechanism of the pricing.

What are you talking about - waiting on me to provide links? You must’ve missed my post above. There was no mention of links, but I quoted and replied to the poster I was talking about.

Russian argument is the US not having a nice reaction to Russia’s buildup and invasion? As if that is a justification? Makes no sense.

Russia ignored the agreement and didn’t respect Ukraine’s borders even though they gave up their nukes.

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This is Obama's war he was too scared to fight in 2014. USA and United Kingdom FAILED AS WORLD LEADERS in their handling of the overthrow of Yanukovych and the subsequent war.

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This is true. Which is why the complaining about Biden tackling it head on doesn’t make sense either.

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Here’s a surprisingly frank discussion on Russian television addressing the “What now?” Twitter link with video

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Over the last few days, I keep expecting at least one person to lose their head live on that show since I assume they all have a brain bomb implant ala Suicide Squad.

There is rarely a clip where someone doesn't remind the group to watch their language.

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Reading this morning and it seems that talk of surrender in Kherson is still percolating. Also some speculation about where Ukraine’s next big move might be. Severodonetsk is well fortified, but the road to Mauriupol may be an option depending on where Ukraine is holding its reserves. There has been speculation the last couple of days that Ukraine is forming up in Vuhledar.

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Severodonetsk is well fortified but so was Izyum. Fortified are useless if the Russian and allied troops flee the fortifications. I expect Ukraine to Ukraine to bypass Severodonetsk and trap the troops there and wait for them to flee or surrender. My money is on them pushing for Luhansk and Donetsk to be able to completely cut off the remaining GLOCs between Russia and the separatist republics before Putin’s meeting with his generals on Thursday.

ETA: I am also hearing rumors that some of the Ukrainians are pushing hard for Mariupol to try and save the Azov defenders before they are sent to Russia for show trials. So they might be doing two or three things at once.