New Year’s Day Severe Weather Thread - Enhanced Risk in AL, TN, MS, AR

Close to the same set up as the early December system. Little less on some of the dynamics but it’s going to be a bumpy afternoon/night in the mid south.

Pretty big cold front behind this stuff. Who's getting snow?

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Pretty big cold front behind this stuff. Who's getting snow?

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It will all fall directly on/in the Mississippi River because tBoat got rowdy and spooked the snow.

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Central AL shouldn't sleep on any storms

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shite. We're in Pelham and supposed to go to a birthday party this afternoon on lay lake. I will be watching.

Got some chaser buddies. Y'all should give them a follow on youtube. Just a follow to help them pay for gas. They help the weathermen in studio spotting storms on the ground.

Northeast Mississippi Stormchasers

Tomorrow could get a moderate upgrade if that mid level warm nose isn’t as prevalent as models expect.

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..MS/AL/Western and Middle TN... A more conditional but concerning environment will be in place across parts of the TN Valley and Mid South on New Years Day. As the upper trough to the west approaches, very strong low-level winds and vertical wind shear is expected to become established over this region, with forecast soundings showing large curving hodographs and effective SRH values over 300 m2/s2. Surface dewpoints near 70F will yield afternoon MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg and a very favorable conditional environment for supercell tornadoes. However, a consensus of model guidance is also quite insistent that a warm nose around 700-800mb will be maintained through much of the day. This will limit the number of storms that form, and may limit the updraft strength of those that do. Virtually all 12z CAM guidance show weak UH tracks despite a few storms forming. Given these trends, will maintain the ongoing ENH risk area. However, there is acknowledgment of the risk of a higher end event including strong tornadoes if later guidance shows a weaker mid-level warm nose and more robust discrete convective development over the warm sector.

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SPC mesoscale discussion regarding possible severe storms across central AL this afternoon.



Mesoscale Discussion 2089
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 PM CST Fri Dec 31 2021

Areas affected...portions of northern Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 311848Z - 311945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Some increase in potential for a couple of severe storms
appears to be underway, though still a conditional/uncertain
scenario. WW remains unlikely at this point, but evolving trends
warrant continued examination.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows a subtle
increase in convective activity across parts of north-central
Alabama at this time. Though radar reflectivity remains weak,
lightning has now been observed, and this muted convective increase
aligns areally and temporally with persistent depiction in
successive HRRR runs of eventual, isolated supercell development
later this afternoon. However, the HRRR is a bit of an outlier in
terms of coverage/intensity of afternoon convection, with only the
hi-res ARW window even remotely supportive of the plausibility of
the HRRR scenario.

From a synoptic perspective, weak warm advection is ongoing, near
and north of a somewhat washed-out warm front lying across northern
Alabama, which is supporting ongoing/weak showers across the
southern Appalachians. Background short-wave ridging is apparent,
which seems likely to hinder -- or at least temper -- potential for
robust afternoon storms.

With that said, deep-layer flow -- though a bit veered in the
boundary layer and fairly unidirectional with height -- is
contributing to 0-6km shear supportive of updraft rotation. As
such, despite a larger-scale pattern that is somewhat inhibitive, we
will continue to monitor convective evolution for signs that the
more aggressive HRRR scenario could come to fruition -- which would
heighten prospects for WW consideration.

I just got an alert from my Clime app that there is a freeze warning for the next 72 hours for the Houston metro. It’s 80 degrees outside. What the Hell is going on in here?

Rain showers were dropping legit tornadoes in Georgia earlier. Just weird to see.