re: LSU (Dietzel through Kelly) coaches' records - pre-LSU / at-LSU / post-LSU

Based on this most excellent data:

Our coaches winning %s have gone up a minimum of 13.6%, a maximum of 34.6%, and an average of 22.7%.

Therefore, we can expect Brian Kelly's winning % at LSU to be between 87.5% and 108.5%, with a likelihood of being around 96.6%.

Math don't lie.

From the original thread - LINK

DocBugbear nerded out & posted

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Sorry, but I am going to nerd out here. Read on at your peril.

As you can never exceed a 1.000 win%, I am going to assume these win percentages combine like velocities in special relativity (which can never exceed the speed of light). If one does so, averages out the improvement of the previous 3 coaches, and then applies that gain to Brian Kelly, then his win% would be 0.871.

I can live with that.

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Not as good as Ron Burgundy, but it's science

If the last 2 seasons have taught us anything. They have surely taught us this: Lsu is a .500 football team based purely on talent. I expect the floor with CBK to be 9-3 @ worst. He won't last long going 8-4 or worse.

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does anyone think that 2019 would've been different with Fuentes, Fleck, Fedora, or Herman at the helm? I know Herman probably wishes he would've made a different decision. LSU would've at least breathed life into all those coaches who are all basically irrelevant now.

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Herman would have had us established before Ed did and continued to be our coach now. He took a 3 year losing problem and went 10-4 in his 2nd year beating top 10 UGA. and he didn't fall off a cliff afterwards.

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and he didn't fall off a cliff afterwards.

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Where's he at these days?

Based on feedback and questions, I updated the table to include all coaches back to Dietzel (I updated the original post as well)

"LSU is taking a break from being king maker by hiring a king" - this quote and the idea for this detailed graph came from a thread on the SECRant / Coaching Changes Board
* Y2NC - # of years until 1st national championship

Takeaways -
1. LSU continues to make coaches. The only outliers are pre-LSU: Curley Hallman (had Brett Farve all 3 years) & post-LSU: Nick Saban (no need to discuss)
2. If Paul Dietzel stays, we might be a blue blood
3. If Bill Arnsparger stays, we don't have the 90s (when I went to school)
4. Never hire coaches without any head coaching experience (Mike Archer & Jerry Stovall)
5. Except Saban (the outlier), most LSU coaches haven't gotten head coaching jobs after LSU, and the few that have didn't do nearly as well (Miles, Dinardo, Dietzel)
6. If you take out the outliers (Hallman & Saban), the overall record for LSU head coaches - pre-LSU: 70-101 (40.9%), at-LSU: 457-208-16 (67.1%), post-LSU: 76-124-2 (37.6%)

Good exercise but your numbers for Hallman are wrong. It leapt out to me when I saw a 39-39 record with a 50% win percentage, knowing that Curley NEVER had a winning season at LSU and one of his seasons was 2-9, LSU's worst.

His actual overall record at LSU was 16–28 (5-6, 2-9, 5-6, and 4-7); his winning percentage of .364 is the worst for a non-interim coach in school history

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Your record for Curly at LSU is wrong. He definitely wasn’t .500. You used his overall record.

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Thanks for pointing this out - easy fix and since he was an outlier, it doesn't change:

5. If you take out the outliers (Hallman & Saban), the head coaches' records - pre-LSU: 70-101 (40.9%), at-LSU: 457-208-16 (67.1%), post-LSU: 74-116-2 (38.5%)

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Did you add the Gerry Dinardo XFL records??

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Good catch - I forgot about that horrible season

It gave me add one more takeaway & updated the totals:
5. Except Saban (the outlier), most LSU coaches haven't gotten head coaching jobs after LSU, and the few that have didn't do nearly as well (Miles, Dinardo, Dietzel)
6. If you take out the outliers (Hallman & Saban), the overall record for LSU head coaches - pre-LSU: 70-101 (40.9%), at-LSU: 457-208-16 (67.1%), post-LSU: 76-124-2 (37.6%)

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does anyone think that 2019 would've been different with Fuentes, Fleck, Fedora, or Herman at the helm? I know Herman probably wishes he would've made a different decision. LSU would've at least breathed life into all those coaches who are all basically irrelevant now.

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Herman would have had us established before Ed did and continued to be our coach now. He took a 3 year losing problem and went 10-4 in his 2nd year beating top 10 UGA. and he didn't fall off a cliff afterwards.

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I think Herman would have done well here and would likely still be the head coach right now. I never believed any of the rumors that he might be the OC here with Aranda. He has too much pride to be the OC at a place he problably regrets turning down the head coaching job. But obviously you don't give up 2019 for Herman and his kissing fetish

Seeing what Brian Kelly has done over his career, I have faith he will get things turned around quickly. That thread about the O linemen has me pumped and I never played O linemen - LINK

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BRIAN KELLY: You're looking at what their demeanor is. Playing that offensive line position requires a profile that I like to stick with. I'm not going to get into the specifics right now, but there's a demeanor, there's a profile. There's a brotherhood on that offensive line that we build, and that brotherhood is real. Those guys are selfless, and they are the backbone of any great offense that I've ever coached. If you have that kind of resume, sign up. We're looking for you. That's the starting point. When it comes to development, it's hard work. We're ready to take on those kind of young men that have those special qualities and are ready to really dig in and put in the time.

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