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re: World Cup Draw - 4/1/22 - Probabilities of each USMNT Scenario

Posted on 4/1/22 at 1:57 pm to
Posted by Broski
Member since Jun 2011
76883 posts
Posted on 4/1/22 at 1:57 pm to
quote:

Sleep on Iran at your own peril. Almost got out of their group last WC that had Spain and Portugal in it.



We're better than Iran, full stop.

quote:

The group is definitely a Top 4 overall group in terms of even quality, IMO.



Yeah, largely because England and the USA are in it.
Posted by WicKed WayZ
Louisiana Forever
Member since Sep 2011
32942 posts
Posted on 4/1/22 at 2:03 pm to
If we can draw with England, that would be huge
Posted by DestrehanTiger
Houston, TX by way of Louisiana
Member since Nov 2005
12836 posts
Posted on 4/1/22 at 2:05 pm to
I just watched the highlights of USA England 2010. I'd rather the WC be in Antarctica than back in South Africa. I just cannot comprehend why someone would blow on those fricking vuvuzelas for 2 straight hours. I can't even imagine what that would look like sitting next to someone doing it.
Posted by Broski
Member since Jun 2011
76883 posts
Posted on 4/1/22 at 2:05 pm to
Good thing about getting Ukraine/Wales/Scotland in the first match is that our lack of experience won't come into play because this will be the first World Cup for any players from those countries too.
Posted by Billy Mays
Member since Jan 2009
25504 posts
Posted on 4/1/22 at 2:07 pm to
quote:

Im hoping they can come out like world beaters and steal a point or 2 in their first two games, and then back down to earth after that.


That's what I'm hoping - they come out inspired playing in their home region. Scotland and Wales can definitely give England trouble as demonstrated lately.

Our game vs Iran is one of the most important of the group. If England is somehow sitting on 6 points going into their final game, we probably will need a win vs Iran to advance.
This post was edited on 4/1/22 at 2:10 pm
Posted by Broski
Member since Jun 2011
76883 posts
Posted on 4/1/22 at 2:19 pm to
Dammit, Gregg

quote:

Jeff Carlisle @JeffreyCarlisle
37s
Gregg Berhalter says he'll bring in the full #usmnt for the Nations League games in June, citing the need to maximize time together.
Posted by BlueWaffleHouse
LA
Member since Jul 2012
1962 posts
Posted on 4/1/22 at 2:21 pm to
quote:


That's what I'm hoping - they come out inspired playing in their home region. Scotland and Wales can definitely give England trouble as demonstrated lately.

Our game vs Iran is one of the most important of the group. If England is somehow sitting on 6 points going into their final game, we probably will need a win vs Iran to advance.


Hopefully England is the "Oklahoma football" of this Cup. I just looked @ their qualifiers, and they had an astonishingly easy Group.
Hoping they come into the tourney in November extremely overconfident...

- Average Ranking of their opponents were: 99.2
- Average Rankings of their top 3 Group opp: 44
(*Poland; 26, Hungry; 40, Albania; 66)

In comparison to CONCACAF Hex & US Opponents:
- USA opponent Average Ranking: 51.3
- USA top 3 Opponents Avg Ranking: 26
(Mex; 9, Costa; 31, Canada; 38)
Posted by Billy Mays
Member since Jan 2009
25504 posts
Posted on 4/1/22 at 2:24 pm to
quote:

Hopefully England is the "Oklahoma football" of this Cup. I just looked @ their qualifiers, and they had an astonishingly easy Group.
Hoping they come into the tourney in November extremely overconfident...

- Average Ranking of their opponents were: 99.2
- Average Rankings of their top 3 Group opp: 44
(*Poland; 26, Hungry; 40, Albania; 66)

In comparison to CONCACAF Hex & US Opponents:
- USA opponent Average Ranking: 51.3
- USA top 3 Opponents Avg Ranking: 26
(Mex; 9, Costa; 31, Canada; 38)


Good point - and we all know Canada is more of a Top 20 side currently.

Speaking of Canada, would not be shocked if they get a result against Belgium. That group is stacked.
Posted by RockChalkTiger
A Little Bit South of Saskatoon
Member since May 2009
10845 posts
Posted on 4/1/22 at 2:27 pm to
So, by average FIFA rankings:
A: 32
B: 15/20/14
C: 22
D: 29/23/18
E: 18/36
F: 20
G: 19
H: 28
Assuming the favorites win the playoffs, the groups would be (from hardest to easiest): B, D, E, G, F, C, H, A.
So a Wales win makes ours the Group of Death. Let’s go Scotland!
Posted by lsuson
Metairie
Member since Oct 2013
13980 posts
Posted on 4/1/22 at 2:31 pm to
Rankings don’t mean shite. Some teams are playing better than others. Canada in the 30’s and Mexico at 9. Lol
Posted by ohiovol
Member since Jan 2010
20959 posts
Posted on 4/1/22 at 2:32 pm to
quote:

UAE can't play with Saudi and Peru can't play with Argentina.


Thanks. I don’t think Saudi had been selected but I didn’t realize the AFC winner had to play Peru, so that does make sense.
Posted by Cole Beer
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2008
4734 posts
Posted on 4/1/22 at 2:37 pm to
I'm new here/ignorant on this but will the England WC team be similar or the same to last year's EURO 2020 squad?

With Kane, Sterling, Grealish, etc.?
Posted by Broski
Member since Jun 2011
76883 posts
Posted on 4/1/22 at 2:40 pm to
quote:


I'm new here/ignorant on this but will the England WC team be similar or the same to last year's EURO 2020 squad?

With Kane, Sterling, Grealish, etc.?



Yes
Posted by OleVaught14
Member since Jun 2019
8342 posts
Posted on 4/1/22 at 2:41 pm to
quote:

'm new here/ignorant on this but will the England WC team be similar or the same to last year's EURO 2020 squad?

With Kane, Sterling, Grealish, etc.?


It should be fairly similar. But with this world cup being in the winter, next Fall could have a big effect on who makes national teams. With it being mid-season for most domestic leagues, who knows who will be hot and who may be injured.
Posted by Billy Mays
Member since Jan 2009
25504 posts
Posted on 4/1/22 at 2:42 pm to
I don't get the urge to post the FIFA rankings - I know everyone does it, but it's misleading.

Groups E (Spain, Germany, Japan) F (Belgium, Croatia, Canada) and G (Brazil, Swiss, and Serbia) are really tough and can be considered Group of Death material.

I would say our group is 4th hardest, but obviously we are splitting hairs. Even a Group like H (Portugal, Uruguay, South Korea, Ghana as the 4) is well-balanced.
Posted by Broski
Member since Jun 2011
76883 posts
Posted on 4/1/22 at 2:42 pm to
quote:

Matthew Doyle @MattDoyle76
21s
One thing to consider is that the #USMNT won more international tournaments in 2021 than England have won in their entire existence.
Posted by RollTide4Ever
Nashville
Member since Nov 2006
19222 posts
Posted on 4/1/22 at 2:45 pm to
Average age? Are these teams good on set pieces?
Posted by Broski
Member since Jun 2011
76883 posts
Posted on 4/1/22 at 2:48 pm to
quote:

scuffed @scuffedpod
1m
Pulisic said the first person he heard from after the draw was Mason Mount
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
172489 posts
Posted on 4/1/22 at 3:38 pm to
You know England is beating off like they did in 2010 over this draw.

We got as good of a draw as we could have hoped for.

Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
172489 posts
Posted on 4/1/22 at 3:40 pm to
I love that we play on the first day. We don't have to wait.

Even like 2010 when we played on the second day.
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