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1
Posted on 11/1/24 at 8:12 am to Jon Ham
quote:
Jon Ham
Posted on 11/1/24 at 8:13 am to SloaneRanger
This and this. Polls mean nada.
Also…..
It’s not who votes that counts. It’s who counts the votes.
Also…..
It’s not who votes that counts. It’s who counts the votes.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 8:14 am to joshua2571
quote:I am not disagreeing, but I believe it was motivated by the want to improve Democrat turnout.
Could be but if you look at the CNN in the past, you know their polls are trash. They are pretty far down the list of the most accurate polls.
That doesn’t make it any less garbage.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 8:14 am to Great Plains Drifter
quote:
The differences are pretty stark and I can’t imagine too many Americans by this point that still remain so undecided they can flip back and forth depending on which way their eggs are scrambled. Who are these people and do they generally suffer brain-lock trying to order from a restaurant menu?
The sick part is that their vote counts the same as yours or mine. Sometimes their vote counts 20x more than yours or mine.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 8:19 am to Perfect Circle
quote:
Trump will lose Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
This just seems obvious to me. I have no faith in the people or corrupt tyrants in those states. I do believe if the veil of corruption were torn all but a small handful of states would go red. But that isn’t reality.
This post was edited on 11/1/24 at 8:26 am
Posted on 11/1/24 at 8:30 am to Perfect Circle
Trump is going to win PA and WI. MI is a coin flip imho.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 8:33 am to Jon Ham
What's going on there Favre and Trump speak at a Rally at Green Bay on Wednesday and Poly is at 60/40 Trump and 48 hours later it flips. Something is very fishy. I think they have something in the water.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 8:35 am to Sweep Da Leg
quote:
CNN +6 is a joke and done on purpose to skew the averages. Trump is kicking arse there only behind Pennsylvania
I haven't seen any battleground state be +6 in any poll. This is a major head scratcher. Even States like Texas Virginia New Hampshire are around 6
Posted on 11/1/24 at 8:37 am to stout
quote:
Why is Wisconsin so cucked?
Proximity to Chicago and Canada are my best guesses.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 8:38 am to Sweep Da Leg
Don’t look at the +\- on a poll. Look at the % of the vote a Democrat candidate is getting. The best way to check numbers is to take the aggregate of 538, RCP, and 270. Those #’s will be more accurate than a stand alone poll.
Harris
RCP- 48.4%
538- 48.1%
270- 48.8%
Aggregate- 48.43%
In 2020 Pennsylvania’s
Biden won 50.1% of the vote
RCP- 49.4%
538- 48.7%
270- 50.2%
Aggregate- 49.4%
538 missed the final numbers by the most, but was close in the +\- at 1.2%.
Trump and Biden did better than there final poll numbers
Harris
RCP- 48.4%
538- 48.1%
270- 48.8%
Aggregate- 48.43%
In 2020 Pennsylvania’s
Biden won 50.1% of the vote
RCP- 49.4%
538- 48.7%
270- 50.2%
Aggregate- 49.4%
538 missed the final numbers by the most, but was close in the +\- at 1.2%.
Trump and Biden did better than there final poll numbers
This post was edited on 11/1/24 at 8:49 am
Posted on 11/1/24 at 8:57 am to Jon Ham
DeSantis literally raped your brain when he quit in the first inning didn't he?
This post was edited on 11/1/24 at 8:57 am
Posted on 11/1/24 at 10:04 am to stout
Milwaukee and Madison. Like many Blue states, WI is pretty deep red outside of those liberal areas.
But the flip in betting for WI seems tied to a couple polls. A recent +2 for Harris, and five polls back, 10/23-10/28, CNN @ +6. That makes no sense, out of the 12 most recent polls:
5 are a TIE;
1 is + 2 Trump;
3 are +1 Trump;
1 is +1 Harris;
1 is +2 Harris;
So that +6 is a crazy outlier, but look how it shifts the average. And that's the only CNN poll. so we can't even establish a trend. If you select by pollster, you'll see the others are pretty flat.
This just seems to be a reaction that isn't justified. I was scared to see that shift, but after this analysis, I'm feeling better.
But the flip in betting for WI seems tied to a couple polls. A recent +2 for Harris, and five polls back, 10/23-10/28, CNN @ +6. That makes no sense, out of the 12 most recent polls:
5 are a TIE;
1 is + 2 Trump;
3 are +1 Trump;
1 is +1 Harris;
1 is +2 Harris;
So that +6 is a crazy outlier, but look how it shifts the average. And that's the only CNN poll. so we can't even establish a trend. If you select by pollster, you'll see the others are pretty flat.
This just seems to be a reaction that isn't justified. I was scared to see that shift, but after this analysis, I'm feeling better.
This post was edited on 11/1/24 at 10:06 am
Posted on 11/1/24 at 10:07 am to MidWestGuy
And the recent +2 Harris in WI is from Marist, their only other poll was Harris +1 on 9/12 - 9/17 , so hard to say if +1 to +2 is a trend, or just noise.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 10:08 am to Jon Ham
quote:
Polymarket
Anybody putting stock in the reliability of Polymarket needs to ne on SSRIs
Posted on 11/1/24 at 10:19 am to The Boat
quote:
The Boat
You are going to look like an utter fool if Wisconsin goes Blue with the cheat. I started a thread several months ago saying I was afraid of this, and of course Mr. Know it All Boat was the first one calling me an idiot and saying it was a guaranteed Red state and I am a moron for even questioning Wisconsin as a battleground state. I'll bump it after the election Mr. Know it All.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 10:28 am to Gifman
jon spam is a cuck and a joke. he trolled all the ronbots into following him.
this clown is a dyed in the wool obama loving democrat.
this clown is a dyed in the wool obama loving democrat.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 10:37 am to Perfect Circle
quote:
Trump will lose Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
afraid that might happen
quote:
I don't understand this board's confidence on Trump winning.
if he loses those 3 can he?
Posted on 11/1/24 at 10:38 am to Perfect Circle
Someone with a brain!! So refreshing
Posted on 11/1/24 at 11:11 pm to Jon Ham
Factoring in CHEATING NEWS
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