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What congressman is most at risk in Louisiana's latest redistricting efforts?
Posted on 1/9/24 at 11:18 am
Posted on 1/9/24 at 11:18 am
Governor Landry seems to loathe Garrett Graves 6th district (Baton Rouge-Thibodeaux-Denham Springs-Port Allen), but Letlow is in a district that's mostly in a part of the state that's losing population and oddly enough includes cites far removed from her Monroe based district (New Roads-St. Francisville, Hammond, and other parts of Tangipahoa are lumped in somehow). Johnson is clearly safe as speaker of the house, but that doesn't mean his Shreveport-centric district doesn't get adjusted.
So how do you get another majority black district in Louisiana without crazy-stupid gerrymandering?
Since 2010, a lot of people in the New Orleans area scattered, and it became a lot more difficult to draw a cohesive district there, so we now have this weird 2nd and 6th district setup that enabled safe democrat and republican districts by design when a couple of region-focused purple districts may have been better.
Seems like that weird 5th, 6th and 2nd districts should be where the focus is for redistricting right?
What region wins/loses in this?
So how do you get another majority black district in Louisiana without crazy-stupid gerrymandering?
Since 2010, a lot of people in the New Orleans area scattered, and it became a lot more difficult to draw a cohesive district there, so we now have this weird 2nd and 6th district setup that enabled safe democrat and republican districts by design when a couple of region-focused purple districts may have been better.
Seems like that weird 5th, 6th and 2nd districts should be where the focus is for redistricting right?
What region wins/loses in this?
7
Posted on 1/9/24 at 11:20 am to member12
Graves loses, the BR region takes a hit by getting a Dem shitball as the new House member.
Posted on 1/9/24 at 11:21 am to member12
What is the rough % of total state population from the BR and Nola metros?
When this came up a few months ago I said they may be able to gerrymander something through LC and Lafayette to create another black district, but it would still be tough. May have to loop it back to Alec?
If that doesn't work, the 2 black districts will have to come from that Br/Nola area. Shreveport seems too far removed to make even a gerrymandered district happen (I guess you could run it down 171 and then i10 to Laf, maybe down to New Iberia).
When this came up a few months ago I said they may be able to gerrymander something through LC and Lafayette to create another black district, but it would still be tough. May have to loop it back to Alec?
If that doesn't work, the 2 black districts will have to come from that Br/Nola area. Shreveport seems too far removed to make even a gerrymandered district happen (I guess you could run it down 171 and then i10 to Laf, maybe down to New Iberia).
Posted on 1/9/24 at 11:23 am to SlowFlowPro
I’m looking at 2010 numbers but the metro areas for NOLA and BR comprised about 2 million people between them.
Laffy is about another half million.
It is unlikely to get enough people to fill a whole district if you are working in the north of the state and trying for black majority.
Laffy is about another half million.
It is unlikely to get enough people to fill a whole district if you are working in the north of the state and trying for black majority.
Posted on 1/9/24 at 11:24 am to member12
quote:
So how do you get another majority black district in Louisiana without crazy-stupid gerrymandering?
You don't. It's fricking stupid to draw lines in any method other than total number of voters. Trying to make special districts for this group or that is an infinite rabbit hole.
I'ld like to see the legislature tell the courts to frick off, maybe even pass an amendment to the state constitution saying no districts shall be created with regards to any race, political party nor religion then fight the courts on the grounds of the 10th Amendment.
Posted on 1/9/24 at 11:26 am to member12
It’s going to be interesting to see how it plays out.
It’s going to take some magic to keep 2 NLA districts I’m afraid.
Letlow might be toast.
It’s going to take some magic to keep 2 NLA districts I’m afraid.
Letlow might be toast.
Posted on 1/9/24 at 11:26 am to Bard
Depends on whether the AG wants to get into a pissing match with the Feds and take it to SCOTUS.
Main reason they can even pressure the state is due to not being released from the VRA from around 1963 IIRC. This gives the Feds an awful lot of oversight into districting here.
Main reason they can even pressure the state is due to not being released from the VRA from around 1963 IIRC. This gives the Feds an awful lot of oversight into districting here.
Posted on 1/9/24 at 11:29 am to teke184
quote:
Graves loses
Perhaps. He's a RINO anyway
quote:
Dem shitball
Not necessarily. District has to be MAJORITY minority. If it's 52-53% black, they still have to show up
Posted on 1/9/24 at 11:30 am to Bard
quote:
You don't
THIS!
Posted on 1/9/24 at 11:38 am to jrobic4
quote:
If it's 52-53% black, they still have to show up
Those BBQ dinners ain’t going to eat themselves. And the local black politicians hand them out to get people to the polls.
Posted on 1/9/24 at 11:43 am to member12
The simple answer is that raw population and geographic continuity with a preference for existing administrative boundaries should be the ONLY considerations.
It’s totally absurd that we redistricting the way that we do.
Its time for software to take over the district mapping.
It’s totally absurd that we redistricting the way that we do.
Its time for software to take over the district mapping.
This post was edited on 1/9/24 at 11:44 am
Posted on 1/9/24 at 11:45 am to SlowFlowPro
Letlow is at risk I think but Graves isn’t safe either.
I believe some of the maps that were already presented, had the 2nd black district coming along the MS delta into EBR & the Florida parishes (district 5). District 2 basically follows cancer alley into New Orleans.
Found the proposed map
More detailed- EBR gets split into 3 districts
Current map I believe
I believe some of the maps that were already presented, had the 2nd black district coming along the MS delta into EBR & the Florida parishes (district 5). District 2 basically follows cancer alley into New Orleans.
Found the proposed map
More detailed- EBR gets split into 3 districts
Current map I believe
This post was edited on 1/9/24 at 11:51 am
Posted on 1/9/24 at 11:57 am to jrobic4
quote:
If it's 52-53% black
Then the dem candidate wins with 60% of the vote and 100% of the dead vote.
Posted on 1/9/24 at 11:57 am to member12
No matter how it’s presented it’s still going to always be totally fukced up to gerrymander and carve out an area just to appease a certain faction that typically doesn’t know when to vote unless they’re reminded to do so by way of bribes. The same faction that’s factually and statistically proven to commit the most crimes.
Posted on 1/9/24 at 11:59 am to whoa
quote:
More detailed- EBR gets split into 3 districts
BR has to be one of the biggest metros in the country that will carved up like that. Just dumb.
Posted on 1/9/24 at 1:29 pm to member12
I love that little spot in New Orleans that gets carved out That must be the Lakeview area
That must be the Lakeview area Posted on 1/9/24 at 2:59 pm to member12
quote:
So how do you get another majority black district in Louisiana without crazy-stupid gerrymandering?
You can't. While about 1/3 of the population is black, it is too spread out around the state.
The map Whoa posted will get two districts above 50% black and is at least somewhat reasonable, but honestly, neither district will be a safe black district.
To get two safe districts, you would need to run something connecting Shreveport and the delta, and run that down to north BR. Such a solution probably means Letlow loses.
But... I can promise you the legislature is going to do all they can to punish Graves and make his seat the one at risk.
Posted on 1/9/24 at 3:52 pm to LSUFanHouston
Cleo, with 9 lives, backed Landry. They'll carve this out to benefit Cleo and screw Garrett. Bookmark.
Posted on 1/9/24 at 4:08 pm to FreeState
Cleo has as many lives as it took him to pass the bar exam.
Posted on 1/9/24 at 4:23 pm to FreeState
quote:
Cleo, with 9 lives, backed Landry. They'll carve this out to benefit Cleo and screw Garrett. Bookmark.
Is Cleo going to run in the 6th or the 5th on the proposed map?
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