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Started By
Message
re: US Chinese Virus Tracker - 466,299 Cases, 16,686 Deaths, 26,104 Recovered (4/10/2020)
Posted on 3/7/20 at 6:43 pm to Boatshoes
Posted on 3/7/20 at 6:43 pm to Boatshoes
quote:
If you have better information than the Johns Hopkins Medical Center, please share it.
I don’t think it’s bullshite I think it’s skewed because there are likely far more cases than the 401 confirmed and much more recoveries that aren’t documented right now.
2
Posted on 3/7/20 at 6:44 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
@ColbyItkowitz
16m
CPAC chairman Matt Schlapp tells me he interacted with attendee who has tested positive for coronavirus. While the timeline is unknown, Schlapp shook Trump's hand on stage the last day of the conference.
This is nuts.
Posted on 3/7/20 at 6:45 pm to Boatshoes
Delineate the criterion for recovery.
Does this mean being alive for 3 weeks after symptoms cease to manifest?
Does this mean being alive for 3 weeks after symptoms cease to manifest?
Posted on 3/7/20 at 6:47 pm to Magician2
quote:
I don’t think it’s bull shite I think it’s skewed because there are likely far more cases than the 401 confirmed and much more recoveries that aren’t documented right now.
You're probably right...but with undiagnosed cases come undiagnosed deaths with an ICD-10 code of CAP or ARDS...and most of them aren't getting autopsies.
So assumptions are always a double edged sword.
For those of you who are actually interested in studying the subject in greater depth, the Virology Blog is a good option for some basic information...
LINK
This post was edited on 3/7/20 at 6:50 pm
Posted on 3/7/20 at 6:48 pm to Boatshoes
quote:
you have better information than the Johns Hopkins Medical Center, please share it.
I just saw an elderly couple on local ATL TV who tested positive were quarantined (didn't get sick BTW) and now tested negative.
So are they part of the 8?
Just stop with the 8 number.NONODY knows the exact number.Im assuming it 8 KNOWN or CONFIRMED cases.
So 400+ cases and 8 "recovered"
Riiiiiight
Posted on 3/7/20 at 6:49 pm to TigerCruise
quote:
More likely a young person who traveled went to the nursing home and infected them weeks ago.
I'm retarded? What are the ages of ALL of the deaths in the US? They're all old as frick and most from the same nursing home, retard.
You're actually arguing the same thing as him. He's basically saying there are a lot of undiagnosed /asymptomatic cases that are left out of the data and skewing the US's death rate.
Posted on 3/7/20 at 6:54 pm to Boatshoes
news I saw say 15 have recovered here in the USA
Posted on 3/7/20 at 7:14 pm to dcbl
quote:
@BNODesk
4m
BREAKING: Missouri reports first case of coronavirus
quote:
@W7VOA
43s
First DC presumptive positive case for #COVID_19 #coronavirus is "being treated in a local hospital," says @MayorBowser.
This post was edited on 3/7/20 at 7:20 pm
Posted on 3/7/20 at 7:29 pm to GEAUXmedic
OK. I ain't reading this whole thread and I've been out most of the day. But, let me address this fricking stupidity.
For those of you predicting asinine numbers of dead.
The CDC estimates there will be 9.7 MILLION cases of Flu this year. 180,000 hospitalizations and 10,000 deaths
We have had, thus far, about 400 cases in the US and hell, not even all of those started here.
If I really have to fricking spell it out beyond the above, you're goddamned hopeless.
We are witnessing fricking mass hysteria driven by completely irresponsible media all over the world.
frick, just imagine if EVERY ONE of those goddamned 10K who died from the Flu made the fricking CNN evening news.
Stop being dupes.
For those of you predicting asinine numbers of dead.
The CDC estimates there will be 9.7 MILLION cases of Flu this year. 180,000 hospitalizations and 10,000 deaths
We have had, thus far, about 400 cases in the US and hell, not even all of those started here.
If I really have to fricking spell it out beyond the above, you're goddamned hopeless.
We are witnessing fricking mass hysteria driven by completely irresponsible media all over the world.
frick, just imagine if EVERY ONE of those goddamned 10K who died from the Flu made the fricking CNN evening news.
Stop being dupes.
Posted on 3/7/20 at 7:36 pm to ShortyRob
Yep
Posted on 3/7/20 at 7:41 pm to ShortyRob
An infectious disease specialist just predicted 500,000 deaths. 500,000 > 10,000. But 2%-3% > 0.002%.
Posted on 3/7/20 at 10:30 pm to ShortyRob
quote:
We are witnessing fricking mass hysteria driven by completely irresponsible media all over the world.
And Boatshoes...let's not forget that.
Posted on 3/7/20 at 10:32 pm to Boatshoes
quote:
An infectious disease specialist just predicted 500,000 deaths. 500,000 > 10,000. But 2%-3% > 0.002%.
Please, inform us how he came to this conclusion.
Posted on 3/8/20 at 6:13 am to DMAN1968
quote:Easy really. Erroneous but easy.
Please, inform us how he came to this conclusion.
COVID-19 is a new virus. It didn't exist as a human pathogen 4mos ago. For the most part, early information about it was passed on second hand by the ChiComs.
The Chinese had no idea there were asymptomatic carriers or a potential 14d asymptomatic phase. So as they watched the disease spread like wildfire (measured by just 20% with recognized symptoms), they released data indicating (A) CV-19 was far more contagious than flu, (B) Mortality rate (CFR) was disproportionately high because total deaths were measured against known cases (comprising as little as 30% total number of infected), (C) Immunity may not be conferred through infection recovery, (D) CV-19 may be an airborne virus.
Chinese observations were provided second hand to WHO officials. WHO officials were confined to a Beijing hotel and disallowed any first hand observation or data collection. CDC was kept out completely. Nonetheless, the Western Press demanded information. So scientists took what they had, and disseminated it.
Fortunately, we cast aside (C) and (D) as too far fetched. But we took representations in (A) and (B) at face value. We reproduced those in our own scientific materials, legitimized them, and plugged them into early calculations and models.
Using the CV R0 value of 2.3-2.8 (nearly 2X that of flu), a CFR of 3.4% (3 to 4X that of flu) and modeling based on known spreadrate of flu (R0 ~1.4, CFR ~0.1, 60 million Americans/yr) gets you to those 300-500K death estimates.
Obviously the predictive models do not align with what we are seeing on the ground. As with climate change modeling, scientists who place tremendous confidence and/or stake reputations on validity of predictive modeling are reticent to admit error. It's analogous to a weatherman sticking with his 0% chance of rain forecast even as it starts to rain.
This post was edited on 3/8/20 at 7:15 am
Posted on 3/8/20 at 7:00 am to Tacoma Tiger
I have chicken noodle soup. It will cure anything except premature ejaculation.
Posted on 3/8/20 at 7:07 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
Easy really. Erroneous but easy.
It was a rhetorical question as I figured Boatshoes wouldn't respond because the answer is that the figures are crap.
But your answer is the very informative answer that his figures are crap.
Posted on 3/8/20 at 8:16 am to ShortyRob
Did people freak out about swine flu this bad?
I don’t remember it being the mass hysteria that this is, and that killed over 2 million people and infected 56 million.
But let’s freak out about something new that isn’t as deadly as they indicate.
I don’t remember it being the mass hysteria that this is, and that killed over 2 million people and infected 56 million.
But let’s freak out about something new that isn’t as deadly as they indicate.
Posted on 3/8/20 at 8:18 am to ForeverGator
We did not have the instant communications or mass social media usage back then, but people were worried, yes. Just not so openly.
Posted on 3/8/20 at 4:07 pm to ForeverGator
quote:
Did people freak out about swine flu this bad?
I don’t remember it being the mass hysteria that this is, and that killed over 2 million people and infected 56 million.
Swine flu was in 2009, facebook was barely a thing and just gaining traction.
This is the first real "social media" worldwide crisis and it shows, bc the fear and hysteria itself is spreading way faster than the virus, due to instant, 24/7 connection to each other via the Internet.
That's been real interesting for me to watch. The effect on social media and the general public this thing is causing.
I have a very smart brother but he is all in on the entire USA being quarantined and he's guessing 84 million infections and 500,000-1 mil DEATHS in the USA due to his "own research and coming to his own conclusions bro"
He keeps citing the infection rate, and will not discuss at all with me when I point out, yes, the graphs and stuff show this huge uptick, but only because we just started testing for this thing, so 3 months ago you have a timeline at 0, and every test that's given and positive is going to make those line graphs SHOOT up. He also brushes by the fact entirely that this thing has likely infected TONS OF PEOPLE and they survived it without being diagnosed or tested for it.
When I tell him to give it time to allow the data collection to happen and plateau off (which it will) he just starts linking youtube "specialists" that are all doom and gloom, and ignoring completely the fact that if you go by the scientific method, we are on STEP 3 OF 7, in the early stages of data collection, which make the any future prediction based on these numbers highly inaccurate and everyone basing doomsday type predictions on them, driving the fear, terribly irresponsible.
Someone has already posted here and I'm sorry I can cite the source OP on who did this, but i agree 100%
This will be very similar to H1N1 in numbers by the end of all this in 2009. something like 12k deaths in the USA and 200k-500k worldwide.
Posted on 3/8/20 at 4:18 pm to Boatshoes
Up to 497, 21 deaths and still only 8 recovered just a couple of hours later.
They are expecting to have over a million tests sent out by the end of the week. This means we'll see even more confirmed cases coming out this week (I'm going to guess at least 1.5k-2k by Friday evening) and even more by the end of the following week.
This spike in confirmed cases is going to cause panic because the media is going to hype it, be prepared. Expect more stories about schools and universities temporarily closing, businesses temporarily laying people off and companies telling more of their employees to work from home.
It's going to get more panic-y before it gets better.
They are expecting to have over a million tests sent out by the end of the week. This means we'll see even more confirmed cases coming out this week (I'm going to guess at least 1.5k-2k by Friday evening) and even more by the end of the following week.
This spike in confirmed cases is going to cause panic because the media is going to hype it, be prepared. Expect more stories about schools and universities temporarily closing, businesses temporarily laying people off and companies telling more of their employees to work from home.
It's going to get more panic-y before it gets better.
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