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Posted on 4/9/20 at 7:26 pm to Jinglebob
quote:
quote:
Another 30,000 new cases (capped by testing) and another 2,000 deaths, possibly hitting a new record.
And there it is
So what’s your explanation for why the number of tests is basically the same and the percentage of positive tests is basically the same. Either there is no growth at all but no decrease either or test processing is a bottleneck and we don’t know the real growth rate. It can be either but I don’t see how it can be extrapolated to getting better.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 7:32 pm to nvcowboyfan
quote:I actually just came across this thread from a biostatistician at University of Florida regarding both IMHE model and the paradoxical phenomenon that are occurring.
I'm incredibly curious as to the huge difference in the NYC numbers versus other large cities. Whether it is a case of prior herd immunity in Ca or different strains or just happenstance it is really unusual
1. Basically, the model is fitted around deaths since it’s probably the most well-measured, objective, and consistent variable even though it’s a lagging indicator. Then it back fits the other data based on assumptions of their relationships with deaths.
2. In the most recent adjustment, the ratio of hospitalizations to deaths decreased from 11.1 to 7.1. So the model then assumes fewer resources are needed and this the peaks for those resources will be sooner and lower.
3. And as a result, deaths follow a similar trend.
4. However, what she found are the states hit the hardest (e.g., New York, 4.22) have a far lower hospitalization to death ratio than stated doing much better (California, 10.61).
5. This is paradoxical because fewer hospitalizations reviews less demand on the hospitals, resulting in poorer care, and increases the rate of deaths as well on top of being an indicator of deaths itself.
6. Her hypothesis is that in New York, people are being hospitalized (for whatever reason) too late, and die more quickly and frequently. So the hospitals have less demand, but aren’t able to provide the services to better save them.
Tweet Thread
Posted on 4/9/20 at 7:35 pm to mmcgrath
quote:Did they fire you or something?
Should put a foot on Quest Diagnostics
Posted on 4/9/20 at 7:36 pm to Athanatos
quote:I hadn’t. Thanks!
Here’s one from Colorado last week in case you haven’t seen it.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 7:47 pm to Chromdome35
Deaths have not passed 2000 yet, and it's getting pretty late. I think this is a good sign. Might be on the down trend now.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 7:50 pm to Taxing Authority
A little higher than the last few days today, but still didn't surpass the highest level days so the flattening continues.
California had a backlog of 14k tests to run so they likely got a large batch completed. I'll check those numbers when they are reported.
Most states have more testing available then they do tests. In some areas they can't get testing done fast enough (large metro areas). In time those large metro areas will catch up to testing as they send speciements to more labs and more ingredents come avaialble to do the testing becomes available.
Still a good day.
I would be converened if we were hitting the 40k mark but we are not even close to that.
The average for the past 4 days is lower in its growth than it was the prior 4 days.
It's possible we never see a drop below 20k until millions more get tested considering more than half of the people who test postive for COVID19 never develop symptoms.
The important state for future deaths is the ICU numbers and those are on the declines. We don't have have a national emergency anymore for ventilators.
California had a backlog of 14k tests to run so they likely got a large batch completed. I'll check those numbers when they are reported.
Most states have more testing available then they do tests. In some areas they can't get testing done fast enough (large metro areas). In time those large metro areas will catch up to testing as they send speciements to more labs and more ingredents come avaialble to do the testing becomes available.
Still a good day.
I would be converened if we were hitting the 40k mark but we are not even close to that.
The average for the past 4 days is lower in its growth than it was the prior 4 days.
It's possible we never see a drop below 20k until millions more get tested considering more than half of the people who test postive for COVID19 never develop symptoms.
The important state for future deaths is the ICU numbers and those are on the declines. We don't have have a national emergency anymore for ventilators.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 7:56 pm to Undertow
A graph for each day of the week wouldn't be all that meaningful. It's all about how many tests need to be processed. In my state testing had more than a week backlog three weeks ago and this week they haven't even past the 1k mark yet in tests being done. They just tell people who aren't even that sick to go back home and give them information for when they should come back to get a test if it is needed. Most never return and they recover on their own.
For some people they get very sick and die. Most don't see any symptoms.
For some people they get very sick and die. Most don't see any symptoms.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 8:18 pm to LSU2ALA
If we are conducting the same amount or less tests (which we are not-it has increased or stayed relatively flat) and the percentage of positives are increasing as you say, then the daily counts wouldn’t be flat or decreasing. That’s basic math.
Now, you could make an argument that we could be artificially constraining potential growth by constraining the amount of tests. However, to me that argument ignores the fact that the availability of testing has increased (there are many more testing locations available now), and ignores the notion that mitigation could be in play to reduce the need for tests needed to be completed.
Now, you could make an argument that we could be artificially constraining potential growth by constraining the amount of tests. However, to me that argument ignores the fact that the availability of testing has increased (there are many more testing locations available now), and ignores the notion that mitigation could be in play to reduce the need for tests needed to be completed.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 8:24 pm to Chromdome35
This is the link to the COVID-19 Country tracker that I have shared on Google Drive. Chromdome's COVID-19 Daily Tracker
This is the link to the US state level tracker that I have shared via Google Drive. Chromdome's State Level COVID-19 Daily Tracker
On the state level tracker the states I have available right now are listed below. I will be adding additional states in the coming days.
Arkansas, Louisiana, New York, Georgia, Florida, California
The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
On the tracker sheet you will see tabs for the following data:
1) US Summary
2) Country Comparables: This shows you how the US stacks up vs. select other countries dealing with COVID-19
3) Logarithmic Comparisons - Shows the US vs the other countries on the tracker.
4) Covid Vs Other Outbreaks - Compares the current COVID numbers to the last 10 years of flue and H1N1
5) US Weighted Averages - Explores 7 day vs 3 day weight average trends
6) Italy Summary
7) UK Summary
8) France Summary
9) Germany Summary
10) Sweden Summary
11) World Summary
NOTE: The daily growth rate data will not be accurate until the end of the day's postings. It will change throughout the day.
NOTE: I am not tracking individual states, I don't have a reliable consistent source for that data.
NOTE: I am not a mathematician, statistics guru, scientist, sharpest tack in the box, I'm just a guy who likes to understand for myself what is happening and to share it with others. This thread was not created to debate if you should or shouldn't take this seriously, it is simply to present the numbers and foster conversation.
NOTE: I have added a prediction number to the bottom of the data grid. This simply takes the previous days numbers and grows them at the previous day's growth rate. It should give the viewer some idea of what the numbers will look like today. Obviously, the final number for the day will be higher or lower based on what today's growth rate actualy is. This is just a simple indicator.
This is the link to the US state level tracker that I have shared via Google Drive. Chromdome's State Level COVID-19 Daily Tracker
On the state level tracker the states I have available right now are listed below. I will be adding additional states in the coming days.
Arkansas, Louisiana, New York, Georgia, Florida, California
The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
On the tracker sheet you will see tabs for the following data:
1) US Summary
2) Country Comparables: This shows you how the US stacks up vs. select other countries dealing with COVID-19
3) Logarithmic Comparisons - Shows the US vs the other countries on the tracker.
4) Covid Vs Other Outbreaks - Compares the current COVID numbers to the last 10 years of flue and H1N1
5) US Weighted Averages - Explores 7 day vs 3 day weight average trends
6) Italy Summary
7) UK Summary
8) France Summary
9) Germany Summary
10) Sweden Summary
11) World Summary
NOTE: The daily growth rate data will not be accurate until the end of the day's postings. It will change throughout the day.
NOTE: I am not tracking individual states, I don't have a reliable consistent source for that data.
NOTE: I am not a mathematician, statistics guru, scientist, sharpest tack in the box, I'm just a guy who likes to understand for myself what is happening and to share it with others. This thread was not created to debate if you should or shouldn't take this seriously, it is simply to present the numbers and foster conversation.
NOTE: I have added a prediction number to the bottom of the data grid. This simply takes the previous days numbers and grows them at the previous day's growth rate. It should give the viewer some idea of what the numbers will look like today. Obviously, the final number for the day will be higher or lower based on what today's growth rate actualy is. This is just a simple indicator.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 8:27 pm to SevenLinesofPine
So when are we gonna hit 9,000 deaths a day
Posted on 4/9/20 at 8:36 pm to uppermidwestbama
The daily growth rate of the US #COVID19 case load has dropped from 24.76% on 3/26 to 7.7% on 4/9. A 68% drop, in two weeks.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 8:45 pm to Chromdome35
The number of new cases rose 1,600 over yesterday while the growth rate continued to decline. There were 170K new tests today which is a 35K increase from yesterday and the highest number we've seen yet to date. The 170K tests yielded 34.7K of new tests a 20.4% positive rate for the day. The cumulative positive rate is now up to 19.4%.
New Deaths fell by 40 from yesterday's number, and over the last three days appear to flatten...This is great! Let's hope this continues; however, the IHME model says the peak isn't for 2 more days at 2,212 Deaths. We should know how correct the IHME model is about 5-6 days from now, as that model shows declining daily death numbers after the 12th.
The Days to Double for Deaths will go above 6 tomorrow.
Mortality is up to 3.56% the rate continues to increase and it looks like the increase is accelerating.
I'm optimistic that we are seeing the start of the peak for deaths. If we are, then an early May relaxation could be a reality.
New Deaths fell by 40 from yesterday's number, and over the last three days appear to flatten...This is great! Let's hope this continues; however, the IHME model says the peak isn't for 2 more days at 2,212 Deaths. We should know how correct the IHME model is about 5-6 days from now, as that model shows declining daily death numbers after the 12th.
The Days to Double for Deaths will go above 6 tomorrow.
Mortality is up to 3.56% the rate continues to increase and it looks like the increase is accelerating.
I'm optimistic that we are seeing the start of the peak for deaths. If we are, then an early May relaxation could be a reality.
This post was edited on 4/9/20 at 8:51 pm
Posted on 4/9/20 at 8:49 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
the IHME model says
Posted on 4/9/20 at 8:59 pm to frogglet
quote:
The main thing to me is that deaths are increasing but seem to have no relation to serious cases. You would think the two would be related.
More testing was driving the death rate down as less sever cases started to get tested. I call fake news on the inflated death rate.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 10:12 pm to uppermidwestbama
Florida:
16826 total cases
2298 hospital
371 deaths (up to 2.2% - highest it has been) (overall is about 3/5%)
58% of all Florida cases from Miami, Ft Lauderdale and Palm Beach.
On another thought: The push for all of us to be tested is also another way for the government to obtain all of our DNA.
On a final note, NBC ran a story tonight about providing the plasma to a 52 yo Orlando man. Apparently got very sick, tried chlorquine with no luck and got the plasma last night. Girlfriend is very familiar with the family and is facebook friends. Heartbreaking to follow. Fingers crossed and prayers but he is on vent. Does not look good.
16826 total cases
2298 hospital
371 deaths (up to 2.2% - highest it has been) (overall is about 3/5%)
58% of all Florida cases from Miami, Ft Lauderdale and Palm Beach.
On another thought: The push for all of us to be tested is also another way for the government to obtain all of our DNA.
On a final note, NBC ran a story tonight about providing the plasma to a 52 yo Orlando man. Apparently got very sick, tried chlorquine with no luck and got the plasma last night. Girlfriend is very familiar with the family and is facebook friends. Heartbreaking to follow. Fingers crossed and prayers but he is on vent. Does not look good.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 11:29 pm to buckeye_vol
Explain #5? Less demand = poorer care?
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